French legislative by-elections, December 2012

[big bad fab]

Aboud will regain his seat, most probably.
Just because, with a low turnout, the FN won't be able to make it for the 2nd round.

(I'm happy because, IIRC, I predicted Aboud's victory in June: it will improve my result )

Don't be so pessimistic, Antonio: I'm not so sure Devedjian will win again in Hauts-de-Seine.

[big bad fab]

Devedjian will lose some votes from the inside of the right: copéistes will try to kill him if Fillon wins over Copé.
And maybe Hollande will tweet something on Devedjian: after all, Trierweiler made sure Royal would lose in June So...

The MRC candidate will be again, indeed.
But let's wait for details from Hash.

[big bad fab]

I maintain my stupid predictions:

Aboud beats the socialist in Hérault in the second round, but after a tough first round against France Jamet.
In Val-de-Marne, Plagnol is shortly reelected in the second round.
In Hauts-de-Seine, Devedjian is just beaten in the second round by the MRC candidate.

It was a long time since by-elections were so interesting (I mean, interesting before the results, as, in Rambouillet, it was interesting because of the surprise...).
Though, of course, with the UMP Civil War, on one side, and the Florange mess, on the other side, it may well be without any big surprise in the end.

[big bad fab]

Amazingly surprising defeat for Plagnol.

Big defeats for the PS.
Big defeat for my (initial) predictions

After all, maybe it would be better to keep on fighting inside the UMP: it seems to work !

[big bad fab]

Amazingly surprising defeat for Plagnol.

Big defeats for the PS.
Big defeat for my (initial) predictions

But more important, big win for Patrick the Survivor.

Without any stock of votes after the first round, he is doing really well.
Leftist voters must begin to be angry, it seems.