So whatever happened to the Bradley Effect?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

After we were told that it did happen in (for whatever reason) Iowa last year, but here Obama did better than the polling average and it was close to the MoE. For that matter that supposed "reverse Bradley Effect" amongst Hispanics didn't seem to appear either in the southwest...

This is indeed probably the end of the Bradley Effect being discussed in any future elections.

[Maxwell]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_United_States_Senate_election,_2006


this already stopped it.

[Franzl]

It remains in JJ's imagination.

[Ty440]

J.J.:

"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream of the Bradley effect shall never die."

[Tender Branson]

On the national level it did not exist.

Pre-election polls that showed a similar result to what we have now (Obama+3), showed Romney ahead among Whites by about 56-59 to 38-41.

The exit poll from Edison for the MSM outlets was 59-39 Romney, while the Ipsos/Reuters exit poll showed Romney ahead by 57-41.

So, there was no significant difference between pre-election poll support among Whites and the exit polls. Everything is well within the MoE.

The state data could be different though, but there are just too many polls to draw any conclusions. If there was a small Bradley-effect in states like OH, MO etc. it was offset by stronger showings of minority voters.

[Tender Branson]

This is good news for J.J.:

There might have been a Bradley-effect in OH actually !

Here is what the 2 exit polls from OH showed for WHITES:

Edison Exit Poll for the MSM outlets: 57-41 Romney
Ipsos/Reuters Exit Poll: 53-45 Romney

So, an average of 55-43 for Romney.

Here is what the pre-election polls showed:

PPP: 51-47 Romney
SUSA: 49-44 Romney
Columbus Dispatch: 53-45 Romney
YouGov: 53-42 Romney
Univ. of Cincinnati: 51-43 Romney

These were the last polls before the election with data for Whites. Those polls have also been very accurate.

So, the average support among Whites in those polls was

51.4% Romney
44.2% Obama

So, the average of the last pre-election polls was 4.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the average of the 2 exit polls and 8.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the official exit poll from Edison.

So, there might have really been a Bradley-effect in Ohio this year, because this is outside the margin of error ...

[milhouse24]

Well, if we're going to discuss race and skin color, Obama is biracial so his skin color is lighter than dark skinned blacks. 

Obama's skin color is closer to 'brown' like Hispanics and Latinos, and this enhances trust and feelings that he is part of the Hispanic community. 

There has historically been tension between the Black and Hispanic communities.  Dark skin blacks may have more difficulty convincing hispanic and white voters to vote for them. 

Obama is seen as not a Black candidate, but a multi-cultural candidate who grew up overseas in Indonesia and diverse Hawaii, so he has an understanding of cultures outside of Black America.  His last name "Obama" isn't like traditional Americans (Jackson, Sharpton, Washington) and "Obama" is viewed as international, with a latin flare like "Rubio" and other last names with vowels at the end. 

Obama won because he gained the support of the Hispanic community and Latin celebrities like Eva Longoria.  I doubt any other American-born Black politicians like Booker or Ford could have gotten as many Hispanic voters. 

[J. J.]

It wasn't there in 2008, and it wasn't there in PA either year (where I expected it in 2008).

Rasmussen didn't show one in their final poll nor did Univ of Cincinnati. 

PPP was rather off in that one (but at the edge of MOE).  Marist was off, and outside of the MOE, but I have not been defending them. 

[J. J.]

I want to add a note of irony.  Gravis Marketing actually did moderately well, at least in the battle grounds. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This is good news for J.J.:

There might have been a Bradley-effect in OH actually !

Here is what the 2 exit polls from OH showed for WHITES:

Edison Exit Poll for the MSM outlets: 57-41 Romney
Ipsos/Reuters Exit Poll: 53-45 Romney

So, an average of 55-43 for Romney.

Here is what the pre-election polls showed:

PPP: 51-47 Romney
SUSA: 49-44 Romney
Columbus Dispatch: 53-45 Romney
YouGov: 53-42 Romney
Univ. of Cincinnati: 51-43 Romney

These were the last polls before the election with data for Whites. Those polls have also been very accurate.

So, the average support among Whites in those polls was

51.4% Romney
44.2% Obama

So, the average of the last pre-election polls was 4.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the average of the 2 exit polls and 8.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the official exit poll from Edison.

So, there might have really been a Bradley-effect in Ohio this year, because this is outside the margin of error ...

Why would the Bradley effect not be in existence for exit polls also?

[Tender Branson]

This is good news for J.J.:

There might have been a Bradley-effect in OH actually !

Here is what the 2 exit polls from OH showed for WHITES:

Edison Exit Poll for the MSM outlets: 57-41 Romney
Ipsos/Reuters Exit Poll: 53-45 Romney

So, an average of 55-43 for Romney.

Here is what the pre-election polls showed:

PPP: 51-47 Romney
SUSA: 49-44 Romney
Columbus Dispatch: 53-45 Romney
YouGov: 53-42 Romney
Univ. of Cincinnati: 51-43 Romney

These were the last polls before the election with data for Whites. Those polls have also been very accurate.

So, the average support among Whites in those polls was

51.4% Romney
44.2% Obama

So, the average of the last pre-election polls was 4.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the average of the 2 exit polls and 8.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the official exit poll from Edison.

So, there might have really been a Bradley-effect in Ohio this year, because this is outside the margin of error ...

Why would the Bradley effect not be in existence for exit polls also?

The OH exit poll had a sample of 4000 people, so the MoE is roughly only 1% or so.

[Badger]

Well, if we're going to discuss race and skin color, Obama is biracial so his skin color is lighter than dark skinned blacks.  

Obama's skin color is closer to 'brown' like Hispanics and Latinos, and this enhances trust and feelings that he is part of the Hispanic community.  

There has historically been tension between the Black and Hispanic communities.  Dark skin blacks may have more difficulty convincing hispanic and white voters to vote for them.  

Obama is seen as not a Black candidate, but a multi-cultural candidate who grew up overseas in Indonesia and diverse Hawaii, so he has an understanding of cultures outside of Black America.  His last name "Obama" isn't like traditional Americans (Jackson, Sharpton, Washington) and "Obama" is viewed as international, with a latin flare like "Rubio" and other last names with vowels at the end.  

Obama won because he gained the support of the Hispanic community and Latin celebrities like Eva Longoria.  I doubt any other American-born Black politicians like Booker or Ford could have gotten as many Hispanic voters.  

Alright, you got us. GREAT trolling job!

I admit I fell for it for years. "How could this Milhouse guy be SO stupid, and such an unrealized closet case to interpose posts virulently against gays next to observations practically drooling over "Paul Ryan's good looks and muscles"?

The answer was obvious: you weren't! It was just all an amazing concerted act of trolling! For years!! I applaud you sir. Good show!

No one else could have been so genuinely obstinately foolish and so overtly restraining their not-so-latent homosexuality  in real life. I must say, your "Milhouse" character was brilliant, just brilliant! An homage, perhaps, to the chronically unmanned and clueless Simpsons character of the same name, perhaps? a crowning touch!Magnifique!

Like most of the Atlas, you had me going hook, line and sinker for ages. This last post was simply too much though, you wily rascal. Just a hair too slackjawed and incomprehensibly braindead a sentiment even for "Milhouse". Caught you at last, you vagabond.

Seriously, thank you for years of your clever performance art on the utter lack of intellectual curiosity and basic misunderstanding of reality some share in extreme politics. Please bring him back from time to time as a goof,. I can't wait to see your next caricature after your retire this silly, now sadly exposed, puppet!

[BaldEagle1991]

It died when Obama became elected President in 2008.

Plus several minority Republicans like Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, and Suzsana Martinez then burned the corpse of the Bradley Effect two years later when they got elected.  

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This is good news for J.J.:

There might have been a Bradley-effect in OH actually !

Here is what the 2 exit polls from OH showed for WHITES:

Edison Exit Poll for the MSM outlets: 57-41 Romney
Ipsos/Reuters Exit Poll: 53-45 Romney

So, an average of 55-43 for Romney.

Here is what the pre-election polls showed:

PPP: 51-47 Romney
SUSA: 49-44 Romney
Columbus Dispatch: 53-45 Romney
YouGov: 53-42 Romney
Univ. of Cincinnati: 51-43 Romney

These were the last polls before the election with data for Whites. Those polls have also been very accurate.

So, the average support among Whites in those polls was

51.4% Romney
44.2% Obama

So, the average of the last pre-election polls was 4.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the average of the 2 exit polls and 8.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the official exit poll from Edison.

So, there might have really been a Bradley-effect in Ohio this year, because this is outside the margin of error ...

Why would the Bradley effect not be in existence for exit polls also?

The OH exit poll had a sample of 4000 people, so the MoE is roughly only 1% or so.

what does the Bradley effect have to do with margin of error?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is good news for J.J.:

There might have been a Bradley-effect in OH actually !

Here is what the 2 exit polls from OH showed for WHITES:

Edison Exit Poll for the MSM outlets: 57-41 Romney
Ipsos/Reuters Exit Poll: 53-45 Romney

So, an average of 55-43 for Romney.

Here is what the pre-election polls showed:

PPP: 51-47 Romney
SUSA: 49-44 Romney
Columbus Dispatch: 53-45 Romney
YouGov: 53-42 Romney
Univ. of Cincinnati: 51-43 Romney

These were the last polls before the election with data for Whites. Those polls have also been very accurate.

So, the average support among Whites in those polls was

51.4% Romney
44.2% Obama

So, the average of the last pre-election polls was 4.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the average of the 2 exit polls and 8.8 points MORE FAVORABLE for Obama than the official exit poll from Edison.

So, there might have really been a Bradley-effect in Ohio this year, because this is outside the margin of error ...

Erm what? In addition to that the Bradley Effect is if anything MORE likely to turn up in exit polls (being in person and all) that has Obama at 45 in the Reuters poll, 0.8% off from that sample. And the other poll has him underpolling therefore.

The main state though that "someone" kept touting as proof of the Bradley Effect is Iowa. With pretty much no conceivable reason why it would be the most affected state, it clearly wasn't this year. Furthermore supposed "reverse Bradley effect" amongst Hispanics touted as evidence that lots of people lie to pollsters also didn't show up (well of course it didn't in 2008 either to anyone capable of doing math, understanding margin of error and knowing which states have large Hispanic populations but that's beside the point.)

[old timey villain]

Does anybody know what Obama's white share was outside the south? A few points higher I assume