Is the GOP collapse overhyped?

[old timey villain]

I mean, they came much closer to winning this time around than they did in 2008. The fact is, most incumbent presidents win reelection, and the GOP had many structural factors against them that they couldn't control, like a slow but steady economic recovery coupled with Obama's unique appeal.

It just seems like the proclamations that the GOP is a dying party seem very premature- people were saying the same thing in 2008 and look what happened 2 years later. I do agree that the Republicans need to change, but have a hard time believing that the GOP is in any worse shape than the democrats were in 2004. Both parties have a remarkable ability to adapt, which is why they have both been around for over 150 years.

However, if they lose in 2012 for the same reasons, then I'll definitely agree that they are in the wilderness.

[auburntiger]

Yes it is.
This is a perfect time to draw comparisons for Democrats after elections in 2004, 1988; also for Republicans in the 1930's and 40's.

the GOP knows it can't survive with it's current anemic percentages with minorities, and will adjust accordingly. It may take until 2020 to break through the Blue Firewall, but by then, Bush will have no affect. Also one has to keep in mind BArack Obama is a perfect candidate for his coalition.

[Lincoln Republican]

Did the Republican Party collapse after 1932?

Did the Republican Party collapse after 1936?

Did the Democratic Party collapse after 1972?

Did the Democratic Party collapse after 1984?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes, but last Tuesday's election results show that the GOP has a long-term demographic and structural problem.

[anvi]

Yes.

[SPC]

I can't help but feel that these speculations of the losing party's imminent demise that occur after every election are akin to speculating that a pendulum will continue go in its current direction until the string breaks.

[Vosem]

As of November 12, 2012, the GOP collapse is about as real as the Democratic Party's collapse on November 12, 2004.

[Chartist]

Collapse yes, structural problems in winning elections, no.

[Cory]

Did the Republican Party collapse after 1932?

Yes. They were in the wilderness until the 1946 midterms.

[LiberalJunkie]

Looking at the past doesn't work currently. Demographics are currently favoring the Democrats if the Republicans continue down the same road.

[Link]

I mean, they came much closer to winning this time around than they did in 2008. The fact is, most incumbent presidents win reelection, and the GOP had many structural factors against them that they couldn't control, like a slow but steady economic recovery coupled with Obama's unique appeal.

Well regardless of what party you are in you can't just put a joke of a candidate up and win the White House.  Look at what happened with Scott Brown and Kennedy's senate seat in MA.  It's interesting after the win you are citing the economy as helping Obama.  I would have never imagined four years ago that someone would honestly be saying Obama was coasting to reelection because unemployment is 7.9% particularly after TRILLIONS spent.

Everything in the media is overhyped.  We went from three nightly news broadcasts and a handful of Sunday talk shows to numerous 24/7 news channels and numerous instantaneously updated internet sources.

But the Republicans demographic problem is real.  Boehner turned on a dime after Tuesday's results.  Hannity turned on a dime.  Seriously tell me one month ago we would be sitting here being lectured by Hannity about how amnesty is the right thing to do.  The GOP has collapsed on a national basis.  They were trounced in numerous non gerrymandered elections.  They had loses across the board on the national level.

[DrScholl]

If they continue to do the same things, then they will be a disadvantage. An ideological change is required on many fronts if they want to be competitive in quite a few states.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The GOP has not collapsed... let's not fool ourselves... BUT... it has shone light on a serious issue for future viability that the GOP needs to seriously address.

[pepper11]

They just lost in a landslide to a president presiding over 7.9% unemployment. I don't think their current dire situation is overhyped.

[Lincoln Republican]

The Republican Party is still supported by almost half of voters.

However, it is an absolute necessity that the Republican Party once again becomes a big tent party.

[wildfood]

Yes, everyone knows the deck is stacked in favor of the incumbant and that after two terms of one party holding the Oval Office the electorate usually chooses the opposite party.

If the Republicans don't win the White House in 2016 then we can talk of a collapse.

2012 was nothing but politics as usual.

[politicus]

They just lost in a landslide to a president presiding over 7.9% unemployment. I don't think their current dire situation is overhyped.

48-51 is hardly a landslide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They just lost in a landslide to a president presiding over 7.9% unemployment. I don't think their current dire situation is overhyped.

Looking at it from a purely objective position...

If you want to win an election, you need to have a coalition that can deliver you that victory. The demographic and social shifts over the past decade have overrun the GOP at a national level. If they keep this current platform on immigration, gay rights, women's rights... they can keep hold of their evangelical, old, white and southern base... but they cannot hope to make inroads with women, Latinos and young voters with this current platform.

But it will take a leader to re-make the party... successful leaders change their parties, look at Roosevelt, Reagan, even Clinton... and yes, even Obama - it will take a strong leader to say to the GOP base, look... I know you don't like etc etc, but if you want to win, we need to moderate ... running further to the right will only make the problem worse. Plus, the GOP already seems to be fooling themselves that the 2008/12 coalition will not be coming out in 2016... do you really want to take that risk?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

They just lost in a landslide to a president presiding over 7.9% unemployment. I don't think their current dire situation is overhyped.

50.6% to 47.8% is hardly a "landslide".

[King]

It's likely the collapse is overhyped and will be avoided, but if the Republicans put themselves in the bubble and say it's overhyped then the collapse actually WILL happen.

They have a demographic problem and, if Obama's second term is successful, they have nothing to sell to the American people as Democrats will now have the lead on the economy, healthcare, and national security.  That is a trifecta that is impossible to beat.

Really, I think they become a strong midterm party as minority turnout in midterms is always lower than presidential years.

[afleitch]

No.

Whites will make up about 69-70% of the electorate in 2016 and about 67% of the electorate in 2020, possibly less. A race like today in 2016 would give the Democratic candidate about a 2% boost to their 2012 winning margin, and in 2020 a 4% boost. A racial split like 2000 and 2004 would also deliver a sizeable PV lead in 2016 and 2020 for the Democratic candidate. This is before the full effects of 'Obamacare' kick in which may cleave minorities to the Democrats in a manner in which the New Deal affected the working vote for two generations. Hispanics are a growing demographic, non-religious/unaffiliated voters are a growing demographic, people are becoming more supportive of gay marriage at an almost exponential rate. Anti-immigration, anti-science and anti-gay positions are only going to max out your vote in Oklahoma for the next few cycles. They are suicide in the swing states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Republican Party won't collapse.

But the party will undergo some fundamental changes... otherwise it would indeed collapse.

[opebo]

It just has a few problems: It is rather bad shape looking ahead just an election or two, and to get past this difficult period it has to perform a difficult transformation, given the apparent lack of appeal that its current presentation has for the growing parts of the electorate.

However it is still very strong, controlling the House almost guaranteed through 2022, and as some have noted, with a base of some 48% of the electorate (though this base, if not altered, will demographically decline).

[TomC]

Yes, it is overhyped; on the other hand it is not a problem that is simply going to fix itself.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They just lost in a landslide to a president presiding over 7.9% unemployment. I don't think their current dire situation is overhyped.

50.6% to 47.8% is hardly a "landslide".

I think he talks about the congressional races and the referenda too. Republicans won only 9 of the 34 senate races and they lost the House popular vote too.