Predict the 2014 Senate result

[Spamage]

Oregon could become close (we generally have closer elections in off yoears, or at least it seems that way). Merkley isn't nearly as popular as Wyden and yet a poll I saw showed him defeating almost every Republican. The only one who tied was Greg Walden and if he ran this race would really heat up as he is probably the most popular Republican office holder within the state.

[Gass3268]

Oregon could become close (we generally have closer elections in off yoears, or at least it seems that way). Merkley isn't nearly as popular as Wyden and yet a poll I saw showed him defeating almost every Republican. The only one who tied was Greg Walden and if he ran this race would really heat up as he is probably the most popular Republican office holder within the state.

Yet he was just named the head of the RNCC, making it extremely doubtful he'd run for the Senate.

[Franzl]

Oldiesfreak, are you aware that the 2009 Minnesota Supreme Court had a Republican appointed majority and the final decision on that Senate race was unanimous? And that the recount was overseen by a panel of two Democrats, two Republicans and one independent?

Idiots will be idiots.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oldiesfreak, are you aware that the 2009 Minnesota Supreme Court had a Republican appointed majority and the final decision on that Senate race was unanimous? And that the recount was overseen by a panel of two Democrats, two Republicans and one independent?

Idiots will be idiots.

Cut him some slack, he has Asperger's.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ron Johnsons don't grow on trees.

Thank God.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Norton was performing worse against Bennet than Buck was in polls at the time of the primary election. I bet she would have lost by a similar margin. She would have certainly not won easily, as Bennet's campaign was widely touted as excellent.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

I'm glad you acknowledged your scenario is still unlikely, but it's still silly to suggest Merkley, Udall, Franken, and Shaheen are among the most vulnerable Senators, especially so when there are people like Landrieu, Rockefeller, and Johnson in far more precarious positions.

I honestly think Landrieu, Rockefeller, and Johnson are all pretty safe as long as they want their seat.

Oldiesfreak, are you aware that the 2009 Minnesota Supreme Court had a Republican appointed majority and the final decision on that Senate race was unanimous? And that the recount was overseen by a panel of two Democrats, two Republicans and one independent?

Idiots will be idiots.

Cut him some slack, he has Asperger's.

Actually, Aspies are known for having above average intelligence.

[ShadowRocket]

GOP picks up LA, SD, and WV. Begich pulls off an upset in AK, while Collins ends up running again and winning in Maine.

[pbrower2a]

Not well that the 2008 Senatorial election set up the upcoming 2014 Senatorial election, and just about every Senate seat that could go D in 2008 went D. The only R seat that I can imagine going D is that of Susan Collins in Maine should she be tea-bagged or retire. McConnell (R-KY) is in poor enough shape that he would lose to mediocre opposition; impending defeat of him  requires conditions that do not yet exist.   

The only R vulnerabilities that any Democrat can imagine involve the argument "this guy is awful". If David Vitter could be re-elected in 2010 despite a sex scandal so can someone who proudly defames liberals. Begich (D-AK), Baucus (D-MT), Johnson (D-SD) Pryor (D-AR), Landrieu (D-LA), and Hagan (D-NC) are vulnerable because of the states that they represent.


Michigan has become a laboratory for semi-fascist politics in a state in which they are unpopular, and if the Michigan Republicans can adequately demoralize Michigan Democrats then even Senator Carl Levin is vulnerable.
 

[td191]

Alaska Mead Treadwell over Mark Begwich

Arkansas Steve Womack over Mark Pryor

Iowa Tom Latham over Democrat

Louisiana Bill Cassidy over Mary Landrieu

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

South Dakota Mike Rounds or Kristi Noem over Tim Johnson or Stephanie Sandlin

Shelley Capito over Democrat

I dont know what will happen, but my money says that Republicans increase their house majority, and def. gain in the senate.

I think Scott Brown could beat just about any Dem except Barney Frank (if he runs, and that is a big if) (he is polling ahead of every Dem, including Gov, Duvall Patrick) but Mass is a very liberal state.

Max Baucus is powerful, but he may or may not run, and he is not safe if he does.

One thing is for sure. All these states (except IA, MA) are solidly republican, Obama wont be popular in these places in 2014, and incombent Dem senators will have the backlash of Obamacare and gun control

Again, I don't know what will happen, but me and fellow Republicans would love nothing more than for Obama to wake up to a Republican congress in 2015, and for his last two years to be a lame duck session.

[Mr.Phips]

Alaska Mead Treadwell over Mark Begwich

Arkansas Steve Womack over Mark Pryor

Iowa Tom Latham over Democrat

Louisiana Bill Cassidy over Mary Landrieu

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

South Dakota Mike Rounds or Kristi Noem over Tim Johnson or Stephanie Sandlin

Shelley Capito over Democrat

I dont know what will happen, but my money says that Republicans increase their house majority, and def. gain in the senate.

I think Scott Brown could beat just about any Dem except Barney Frank (if he runs, and that is a big if) (he is polling ahead of every Dem, including Gov, Duvall Patrick) but Mass is a very liberal state.

Max Baucus is powerful, but he may or may not run, and he is not safe if he does.

One thing is for sure. All these states (except IA, MA) are solidly republican, Obama wont be popular in these places in 2014, and incombent Dem senators will have the backlash of Obamacare and gun control

Again, I don't know what will happen, but me and fellow Republicans would love nothing more than for Obama to wake up to a Republican congress in 2015, and for his last two years to be a lame duck session.

Yet, unlike 2010, Democrats will have Boehner and Cantor to kick around, which will help them a lot.

Pryor is quite popular in Arkansas and Republicans would probably either need him to retire or for him to do something stupid like vote for an assault weapons ban to beat him unless Mike Hukabee runs.

In Massachussetts, Brown is below 50% against opponents who are only known to about 10% of the state. 

Elmers or Tillis would not beat Hagan.  The only way Hagan loses is if she makes a dumb vote or if McCrory runs against her. 

In Iowa, Latham wont even get out of the primary. 

[Sol]

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

The trouble is that those are both very weak candidates- Ellmers fits in the Bachmann mold, and Tillis is associated with the extremely unpopular and tea-party controlled General Assembly. Both of them could be successfully painted as radicals by a Hagan campaign with any skills.

[Vern]

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

The trouble is that those are both very weak candidates- Ellmers fits in the Bachmann mold, and Tillis is associated with the extremely unpopular and tea-party controlled General Assembly. Both of them could be successfully painted as radicals by a Hagan campaign with any skills.

Also, N.C. Is a totally different state then it was. Everywhere but rural area are left leaning and them areas are growing very fast. Hagan is safe right now.

[Mister Mets]

Alabama- Safe Republican.

Alaska- Leans Republican, especially if Treadwell wins. Leans Democratic, if Joe Miller wins.

Arkansas- Tossup. Blanche Lincoln, the previous Democratic incumbent, lost by 20%, so it's certainly a seat Republicans can be competitive in.

Colorado- Leans Democratic.

Delaware- Safe Democratic. Thanks to the Republicans who voted for Christine O'Donnell in 2010.

Georgia- Leans Republican. Indiana went for Romney by a higher percentage, and Democrats took the Senate seat in '12.

Hawaii- Leans Democratic. There seems to be some anger at Abercrombie/ Schatz. Although I suspect Schatz's ties to Obama will help him with the base.

Idaho- Safe Republican.

Illinois- Leans Democratic. Durbin hasn't decided to run for reelection.

Iowa- Tossup. Open race in swing state in midterm election with Democrat in White House.

Kansas- Safe Republican.

Kentucky- Leans Republican.

Louisiana- Tossup. Landrieu won reelection by six points under very favorable circumstances in 2008. She could be vulnerable.

Maine- Leans Republican. Collins hasn't announced whether she'll seek reelection.

Massachusetts- Too complicated. It would lean Republican if Scott Brown or Charlie Baker (who finished six points behind Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race) is an incumbent.

Michigan- Leans Democratic. It's unclear if Levin's running for reelection.

Minnesota- Safe Democratic. Franken's popular. The Republican bench is weak.

Mississippi- Safe Republican.

Montana- Tossup.

Nebraska- Safe Republican.

New Hampshire- Leans Democratic.

New Jersey- Leans Democratic.
The only reason I'm not saying "Safe Democratic" is that Jersey politics might be a mess if Menendez resigns/ Booker runs for that seat.

New Mexico- Leans Democratic.

North Carolina- Leans Republican. Hagan has low approval ratings.

Oklahoma/ South Carolina/ South Carolina (Special)- Safe Republican

Oregon/ Rhode Island- Safe Democratic.

South Dakota- Leans Republican. Conservative state with top-tier Republican candidate in former Governor Mike Rounds.

Tennessee- Safe Republican.

Texas- Safe Republican.

Virginia- Safe Democratic.

West Virginia- Leans Republican. The Tea Party can knock out Capito for someone less credible.

Wyoming- Safe Republican.

[Mister Mets]

One interesting wrinkle.

Very few Democratic Senators have lost reelection in the last ten years.

A part of it may be that there's a greater tendency to leave if reelection looks challenging, but vulnerable Democrats often manage to win reelection.

That's good news for Kay Hagan, Tim Johnson and Max Baucus.

[RogueBeaver]

AK: Begich trounces Miller, probably an underdog against Treadwell and definitely Parnell. Won by a handful of votes against a convicted felon in a Dem wave year.

AR: Pryor beats Darr, tossup against Cotton.

CO: Udall beats all likely competitors.

IA: Safe Braley with King, Tossup/Slight R with Latham.

LA: Tossup/Slight R with Cassidy.

MA: Now Safe D.

SD: Lean R with Johnson, Likely R without him.

WV: Safe R with Capito.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

49D-2I-49GOP

Tilt D AR,MT,MA,NC
Tossup AK,IA,LA
LGOP SD and WVA

[TNF]

Alaska: Tossup
Arkansas: Tossup
Colorado: Likely Democratic.
Delaware: Solid Democratic.
Hawaii: Solid Democratic.
Illinois: Solid Democratic.
Iowa: Leans Democratic.
Louisiana: Tossup
Massachusetts: Solid Democratic.
Michigan: Likely Democratic.
Minnesota: Likely Democratic.
Montana: Likely Democratic.
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic.
New Jersey: Likely Democratic.
New Mexico: Likely Democratic.
North Carolina: Leans Democratic.
Oregon: Likely Democratic.
Rhode Island: Solid Democratic.
South Dakota: Leans Republican.
Virginia: Likely Democratic.
West Virginia: Likely Republican.

Alabama: Solid Republican.
Georgia: Likely Republican.
Idaho: Solid Republican.
Kansas: Solid Republican.
Kentucky: Likely Republican.
Maine: Likely Republican.
Mississippi: Solid Republican.
Nebraska: Solid Republican.
Oklahoma: Solid Republican.
South Carolina (Special): Likely Republican.
South Carolina: Likely Republican.
Tennessee: Likely Republican.
Texas: Likely Republican.
Wyoming: Solid Republican.

My use of "likely" here indicates that a race could become competitive in the event of a retirement, the candidates running, or the state of the economy or foreign affairs.

[publicunofficial]

Alabama - Safe R, possible Primary challenge
Alaska - Lean-D if Miller runs, Toss-Up if Treadwell runs
Arkansas - Likely D unless Cotton runs
Colorado - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Georgia - Likely R, Toss-Up if John Barrow runs
Hawaii - Safe D, possible Primary challenge
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D, even if Durbin retires
Iowa - Likely D if King runs, Toss-Up if Latham runs
Kansas - Safe R, possible primary challenge
Kentucky - Lean R
Louisiana - Toss-Up
Maine - Likely R, Likely D if Collins retires
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Safe D, Likely D if Levin retires
Minnesota - Likely D, Safe D if Bachmann runs
Mississippi - Safe R
Montana - Likely D, Toss-Up if Baucus retires
Nebraska - Safe R
New Hampshire - Likely D
New Jersey - Safe D
New Mexico - Safe D
North Carolina - Lean D
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Rhode Island - Safe D
South Carolina (Scott) - Likely R
South Carolkna (Graham) - Safe R, possible Primary challenge
South Dakota - Toss-Up, Likely R if Johnson retires
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Virginia - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely R, Toss-Up of Capito loses primary
Wyoming - Safe R

[td191]

Alaska Mead Treadwell over Mark Begwich

Arkansas Steve Womack over Mark Pryor

Iowa Tom Latham over Democrat

Louisiana Bill Cassidy over Mary Landrieu

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

South Dakota Mike Rounds or Kristi Noem over Tim Johnson or Stephanie Sandlin

Shelley Capito over Democrat

I dont know what will happen, but my money says that Republicans increase their house majority, and def. gain in the senate.

I think Scott Brown could beat just about any Dem except Barney Frank (if he runs, and that is a big if) (he is polling ahead of every Dem, including Gov, Duvall Patrick) but Mass is a very liberal state.

Max Baucus is powerful, but he may or may not run, and he is not safe if he does.

One thing is for sure. All these states (except IA, MA) are solidly republican, Obama wont be popular in these places in 2014, and incombent Dem senators will have the backlash of Obamacare and gun control

Again, I don't know what will happen, but me and fellow Republicans would love nothing more than for Obama to wake up to a Republican congress in 2015, and for his last two years to be a lame duck session.

Yet, unlike 2010, Democrats will have Boehner and Cantor to kick around, which will help them a lot.

Pryor is quite popular in Arkansas and Republicans would probably either need him to retire or for him to do something stupid like vote for an assault weapons ban to beat him unless Mike Hukabee runs.

In Massachussetts, Brown is below 50% against opponents who are only known to about 10% of the state. 

Elmers or Tillis would not beat Hagan.  The only way Hagan loses is if she makes a dumb vote or if McCrory runs against her. 

In Iowa, Latham wont even get out of the primary. 

Republicans will have the fact that the races benefit them with all these vulnerable Dem incumbents in red states.

Taxes, gun control and their votes for Obamacare
Lincoln was popular in Arkansas, and still lost despite Bill Clinton stumping for her.

With the senate leadership taking more control of the primaries, the strongest candidates likely to come out on top of primaries.

Hagan is polling in the 30s, and Dems winning here in 2008 was fluke. Since then, the GOP has take the statehouse and the Gov. I have no doubt that Hagan will lose.

Do you really think Obama will popular in any of these places come 2014?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are on defense and 2016 should be more favorable with toomey, kirk, and ron johnson vulnerable. Joe Manchin and leader Reid gun right states dem support closing loopholes in criminal background cjeck that house can support. Ak, SD, La, and Wva are the most vulerable. And perhaps Iowa.

[Blackacre]

When considering 2014, I must remember 2012, a year that was lopsided even worse (i think) than this one, yet Democrats actually increased their margins. Considering everyone expects a net R pickup, what makes 2014 worse for the dems than 2012, to the point where nobody expects them to repeat their 2012 feat?

[Mr.Phips]

Alaska Mead Treadwell over Mark Begwich

Arkansas Steve Womack over Mark Pryor

Iowa Tom Latham over Democrat

Louisiana Bill Cassidy over Mary Landrieu

Tim Tillis or Renee Elmers over Kay Hagan (Hagan and Obama won the state in 08, since then GOP has take the statehouse, senate and gov, and Obama lost in 12) (furthermore, her approval rating is in the 30s) My money says NC reverts back to its true conservative form (this is the state if Jesse Helms after all)

South Dakota Mike Rounds or Kristi Noem over Tim Johnson or Stephanie Sandlin

Shelley Capito over Democrat

I dont know what will happen, but my money says that Republicans increase their house majority, and def. gain in the senate.

I think Scott Brown could beat just about any Dem except Barney Frank (if he runs, and that is a big if) (he is polling ahead of every Dem, including Gov, Duvall Patrick) but Mass is a very liberal state.

Max Baucus is powerful, but he may or may not run, and he is not safe if he does.

One thing is for sure. All these states (except IA, MA) are solidly republican, Obama wont be popular in these places in 2014, and incombent Dem senators will have the backlash of Obamacare and gun control

Again, I don't know what will happen, but me and fellow Republicans would love nothing more than for Obama to wake up to a Republican congress in 2015, and for his last two years to be a lame duck session.

Yet, unlike 2010, Democrats will have Boehner and Cantor to kick around, which will help them a lot.

Pryor is quite popular in Arkansas and Republicans would probably either need him to retire or for him to do something stupid like vote for an assault weapons ban to beat him unless Mike Hukabee runs.

In Massachussetts, Brown is below 50% against opponents who are only known to about 10% of the state. 

Elmers or Tillis would not beat Hagan.  The only way Hagan loses is if she makes a dumb vote or if McCrory runs against her. 

In Iowa, Latham wont even get out of the primary. 

Republicans will have the fact that the races benefit them with all these vulnerable Dem incumbents in red states.

Taxes, gun control and their votes for Obamacare
Lincoln was popular in Arkansas, and still lost despite Bill Clinton stumping for her.

With the senate leadership taking more control of the primaries, the strongest candidates likely to come out on top of primaries.

Hagan is polling in the 30s, and Dems winning here in 2008 was fluke. Since then, the GOP has take the statehouse and the Gov. I have no doubt that Hagan will lose.

Do you really think Obama will popular in any of these places come 2014?

Taxes?  Even Republicans voted to raise taxes on the wealthy this year.  Gun control isnt going anywhere with the House Republican and Obamacare passed almost three years ago. 

Lincoln was incredibly unpopular in Arkansas by the time 2010 rolled around and Clinton barely lifted a finger for her. 

In North Carolina, Republicans only held onto the legislature because they drew horribly gerrymandered maps and won the governorship because Perdue was so unpopular. 

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

When considering 2014, I must remember 2012, a year that was lopsided even worse (i think) than this one, yet Democrats actually increased their margins. Considering everyone expects a net R pickup, what makes 2014 worse for the dems than 2012, to the point where nobody expects them to repeat their 2012 feat?

There were decent pickup opportunities in 2012 (MA, ME, thanks to Mourdock IN, lost Nevada by 1 with a bad candidate) to be had. Democrats have none here, and it's not a presidential election year.

[Ogre Mage]

Senate Republicans have a net gain of two seats, picking up West Virginia and South Dakota.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I'll try mine, even though it will probably look ridiculous come 2014:

Tossup/Lean/Likely/Safe

The Dems' main problem is that they have a very low floor, but I doubt any of the GOP's longshot possibilities (stuff like IA, CO, NJ, MI) have much chance to materialize. The same is true for GA and KY, of course. Maine hinges on Collins' decision.

Updated based on retirement news or recent polling.