Predict the 2014 Senate result

[KCDem]

The actual election result in 2014 was hackish! /Democrats in this thread

Junk election!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

+8 Rep's

Yeah, what a partisan hack...

Context matters, knowing what everyone knew then, it was still a pretty hackish prediction (even if it ended up being right).

I mean, it was partisan when it was made.  I'm still surprised it turned out right however.

[emailking]

Context matters. Knowing what we did back then, Republicans had just shut down the government and were en route to an electoral beating the following year. Thus, Flo's prediction was perfectly reasonable while JerryArkansas's was hackish, since he was naive enough to predict that ephemeral political conditions would change within the year and create a good environment for the party out of power.

How do you know it was naive and not prescient?

Midterms often go against the President's party. The map may not have felt right at the time, but that's because we naturally have a bias to recent events. Now we know the shutdown didn't matter much in the end. But one could have reasonably forseen that at least as a possibility a year ago too.

[emailking]

Context matters, knowing what everyone knew then, it was still a pretty hackish prediction (even if it ended up being right).

How does this even make sense? The election didn't happen "then." Maybe he guessed a lot stuff would go down in the intervening years that would make the environment less favorable to democrats. I.e. he made a prediction to that end (apparently). Just not one that seemed likely to you at the time.

"Ended up being right" is the only part that matters.

Being right for the right reasons and being right for the wrong reasons are two very different things.

But how do you know what his reasons were?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Context matters, knowing what everyone knew then, it was still a pretty hackish prediction (even if it ended up being right).

How does this even make sense? The election didn't happen "then." Maybe he guessed a lot stuff would go down in the intervening years that would make the environment less favorable to democrats. I.e. he made a prediction to that end (apparently). Just not one that seemed likely to you at the time.

"Ended up being right" is the only part that matters.

Being right for the right reasons and being right for the wrong reasons are two very different things.

But how do you know what his reasons were?

Because he literally said it was a partisan prediction and that he wasn't expecting it to be accurate

[Wisconsin+17]

Congrats JerryArkansas, who correctly predicted the outcome in 2012. :eek:

[emailking]

Because he literally said it was a partisan prediction and that he wasn't expecting it to be accurate

No he didn't. This is the post:

+9 Rep's

two would only come if incumbent retires and popular gop person runs in iowa and mt.  If not it would be this map

There is no other post or any clarifying language where he gave any reason than what's stated above (retiring incumbents, popular candidates). He definitely did not say that he did not expect it to be accurate.

[Oak Hills]

Because he literally said it was a partisan prediction and that he wasn't expecting it to be accurate

No he didn't. This is the post:

+9 Rep's

two would only come if incumbent retires and popular gop person runs in iowa and mt.  If not it would be this map

There is no other post or any clarifying language where he gave any reason than what's stated above (retiring incumbents, popular candidates). He definitely did not say that he did not expect it to be accurate.

I mean, it was partisan when it was made.  I'm still surprised it turned out right however.

[emailking]

Oops. I missed that that was him.

Sorry.