Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin

[pbrower2a]

In that poll, Hickie has 48% approve and 46% disapprove.

Correction made.

[pbrower2a]

A rare Republican Governor doing well.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-cruz-has-a-slim-lead-in-the-primary-and-general.html

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

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Maybe Governor Scott is doing something right and not simply Right. But probably not fast enough:

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This is inconsistent with polls that show Rick Scott underwater by 20% or so in approval ratings. The 53-37 split on whether he deserves to be reelected is as stark as some other polls that show him underwater by 20% or so. So perhaps he backed down on some early, polarizing positions. Which Rick Scott will Florida voters think that they are getting? They were happy with Charlie Crist as a moderate Republican.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).






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[pbrower2a]

Wall Street Journal/Marist/WNBC-TV 4 (NBC, New York City)


He'd clobber any Republican opponent for Governor.  

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579220182335855674

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

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http://images.politico.com/global/2013/11/25/ilresults.html

Machine politics can get some ineffective government hard to remove. Despite the horrid ratings, Pat Quinn has about a 50-50 chance of getting re-elected based on the binary matchups shown. This is the mirror image of some states with unpopular R governors in states in which Democrats have no clear chance (Georgia, Kansas, Texas).

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/corbetts-numbers-just-keep-getting-worse.html#more

Why doesn't he just resign?

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio:

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Another flawed Michigan poll. Because there is no disapproval rating  I can't translate it into a margin. Don't worry. It's probably consistent with what we already have. PPP will poll Michigan this weekend, and PPP is much clearer and timely. It's probably consistent with what we already have, and we will have a wealth of data on Michigan a week from now.

Needless to say, an adept politician can defeat an incumbent unpopular for stepping on the toes of people who thought that the incumbent did not dare step upon. 
 

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

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[pbrower2a]

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Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/12/05/5971535/jerry-brown-holds-huge-lead-in.html#storylink=cpy

Disapproval is at a maximum at 42% -- probably in the middle-to-high 30s. No change in the map.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120613.pdf

Midweek poll. Underwater, but the Republicans seem to have little to offer. Hickenlooper seems likely to win in 2014.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

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[pbrower2a]

Rick Snyder still underwater, 42-49

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina Miscellany

-After bottoming out in September, Pat McCrory's approval numbers continue to tick back up.
NC (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Rick Scott, R-FL, St. Leo University:

FLORIDA Politics

49. How would you rate the job Rick Scott has been doing as Governor...
do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?


10% Strongly approve
28% Somewhat approve
17% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove
11% Don’t know / unsure

http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Florida-Voters-Poll-Results-1.pdf

Awful.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[henster]

I feel like the Governor's will be the Dems bright spot in 2014 from what I can see the best we can hope for is picking up MI, PA, FL, ME, and maybe WI, GA, and SC while holding onto AR and losing IL.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Quinnipiac:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1989

Iowa is not one of those likely pickups for Democrats for the Governorship. Iowa Democrats would be wise to focus on the open US Senate seat which they could conceivably lose to a typical Oklahoma or Alabama pol.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/

Bouncing around a 20% margin between approval and disapproval is wonderful -- only if one is ahead. Execrable. Somebody basted that turkey with gasoline.

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Georgia, PPP --- Governor Nathan Deal down 34-41. Execrable. Supposedly he would win 44-40 if the election were held today with 16% undecided... he'd lose if his opponent could cast him as a crook.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1xqouFpbXxiGOPdNqHwZTQxYnzHqOULYq8Md5Kb3ztbppRHBqaoKggZTF5d65/edit

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

(Posted elsewhere. but relevant in this thread):

Know beforehand:

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release.

The name change represents somewhat of a clarification for the firm. In the 1990s, Fabrizio worked with John McLaughlin, but the partnership disbanded amicably over the 1996 presidential campaign, Lee said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. Fabrizio worked for Republican candidate Bob Dole, while McLaughlin polled for Republican rival Steve Forbes.

McLaughlin’s brother, Jim, continued to work with Fabrizio into the next decade. He left in the early 2000s, but Fabrizio continued to use the McLaughlin name out of convenience, Lee said.

“This is the next step in our relationship,” Lee added.

The McLaughlin brothers have their own polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/

[pbrower2a]

First gubernatorial poll of 2014 -- Christie in New Jersey.

Still good, but down from "great".

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(Emphasis mine).

Democrats are becoming less sympathetic to him, and such is the cause of the drop. 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1995

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Hassan, New Hampshire, 52-27

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NH_115.pdf

  

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Pat MaCrory, Gov., NC, PPP:

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.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/north-carolinians-strongly-back-teacher-pay-increase.html#more

  

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida. Rick Scott (R-FL), still awful.

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According to Nate Silver's model in which an incumbent typically gains about 6-7% from his approval rating at the start of the political season to Election Day in his re-election bid just by campaigning,  Rick Scott probably loses 59-41 or so, getting core Republican voters in Florida and little else.

  

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

WBUR-TV (ABC 9, southern New Hampshire), Massachusetts 

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http://www.wbur.org/2014/01/22/governors-race-poll

  

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Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Marquette Law, WI: Scott Walker, Gov., R-WI

Walker’s job approval rose in the January poll to 51 percent approval while 42 percent disapprove.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2014/01/27/new-marquette-law-school-poll-examines-wi-governors-race-direction-of-the-state-and-jobs-outlook/

Probably the default Republican nominee for President.

  

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White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Rick Scott, R-FL, Quinnipiac:

Approve/disapprove 41-49

Even more telling: does he deserve/does he not deserve re-election?

38-54.

I figure that Rick Scott has blown any chance of being re-elected a long time ago even if approval of his Governorship has since improved.

  

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[/quote]