Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin

[pbrower2a]

Q, Pennsylvania:


Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Corbett is doing, continuing a four-month string of negative scores in surveys by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1889



tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[greenforest32]

It's not exactly a poll but I think this article fits within the topic of this thread: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/28/popular-governors-and-prospects-for-2016/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[pbrower2a]

I thought this thread had been lost!

Update on New Mexico -- Susanna Martinez is very popular (SUSA)



tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?

40% Approve
52% Disapprove
8% Not sure

...He'd lose to a one-term Congressman whose statewide name recognition is very poor if the election were to be held today.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_604.pdf  


tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Selzer, Des Moines Register, Iowa: 54% approval, 36% disapproval. Possible VP selection in 2016?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130609/NEWS09/306090028/Iowa-Poll-Branstad-sees-high-approval-?Frontpage&nclick_check=1

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_604.pdf  


tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado :

Governor Hickenlooper takes the heat on the death penalty (excerpts):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1907

Comment: Big slip, but basically a blip. In practice the death penalty is an intense, polarizing issue for a short time whether it is ended, put on hiatus or moratorium, restored, or intensified. It affects very few people.  I checked elsewhere, and I noticed that Colorado had not sentenced anyone to death since 2000 and had executed someone who abandoned all appeals in the 1990s. 



tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_617.pdf

Disapproval of many of the legislative activities of the Republican-dominated State Legislature, typically on legislation in favor of special interests, is extreme.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/212089061.html?page=1&c=y

Nothing said about disapproval, so even with the most conservative assessment of 43% one finds a gap of at least 14% in favor of the Governor or Minnesota.

(addendum: 57% approve, 31% disapprove, 12% undecided). That is a 26% positive gap, surely one of the strongest of any Governor in America.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/211852001.html


tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1911

Utah, Gary Herbert (R)-- Brigham Young University

75% approve, 25% disapprove.

Sure, this is a computer-based poll, but at this level I accept it. I spoke too soon about Mark Dayton having a strong positive difference in approval. Gary Herbert even better fits his state. 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Rick Perry has stated that he will not run for re-election. He will thus have no relevance as a sitting Governor  upon the Presidential election of 2016.

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP

Terry Branstad has approval numbers that suggest he could be vulnerable in his reelection bid- voters are closely divided on him with 45% approving and 46% disapproving. Those numbers are down a good bit from what we found right before the election last November when he had a +12 approval spread at 48/36.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/branstad-braley-lead-in-iowa.html#more

(With this rating he would probably barely win re-election... but barely. Incumbents usually show why they got elected in the first place once they start campaigning -- unless their approval ratings at the start of campaign season are below about 43%).

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[hopper]

It's not exactly a poll but I think this article fits within the topic of this thread: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/28/popular-governors-and-prospects-for-2016/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Some R Governors way down in approval in conservative states(GA, SC, and La.) Jindal in Louisiana he's not running again at least. Deal in GA and Haley in SC will run again probably and their approval ratings aren't good. Snyder messed himself up going to hard right for MI. Its gonna be hard for another Republican to get elected as MI Governor when Snyder decides to get out of the Governor's mansion. It didn't help the Democrats with the 2010 MI Governor's Race where they had to deal with Granholm's tenure as governor  and it being a GOP Wave Year.

[pbrower2a]

The first polling on Governor McDonnell after exposures of a breaking scandal comes from PPP:

July 11-14, 2013
Survey of 601 Virginia voters

Virginia Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/democrats-lead-in-virginia.html#more

...............

This is a huge change from recent polls that suggested that Bob McDonnell was one of the more successful governors in America. That is now over. I am going with a margin and not with a raw approval rating, and the margin doesn't look as bad as it does for someone like Rick Scott ore Pat Quinn who have similar approval numbers. The large percentage of "not sure" responses look like people trying to sort out the news stories, and the way from "approve" to "disapprove" (or vice-versa) usually goes through the "not sure" category.

I see no reason to believe that the electorate of Virginia shows any tolerance for tarnished politicians of any kind. I just don't call any trend until one has quantitative measure of change. 

 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Ordinarily I would put two polls by the same pollster in neighboring (and somewhat similar) states in the same post. But the narrative is quite different as is the cause. In Virginia the cause is an apparent scandal; in North Carolina it is the erratic actions of the State legislature and no accusation of Gubernatorial malfeasance. 

PPP, North Carolina

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

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Lurid details here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_071613.pdf

I don't usually describe the behavior of a State legislature with the word "lurid". It fits this time.

 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[publicunofficial]

If Perry is whited out because he is retiring, should Virginia be whited out as well?

[JerryArkansas]

If Perry is whited out because he is retiring, should Virginia be whited out as well?

And Arkansas also, and Arizona

[pbrower2a]

If Perry is whited out because he is retiring, should Virginia be whited out as well?

Now that I think about it, one year before the election is really too early to white out a state.  A vacant office or a change of Governor may be the more appropriate time for making the change.

I have a theory that a highly-popular governor can usually help the nominee of his Party for the President, and an unpopular one can hurt the chance of the nominee of his own Party for President. Rick Perry will probably do nothing to help any Republican nominee for President.   

Bob McDonnell gets taken off the map if he resigns of is impeached.


 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

A 51% to 33% majority of California voters approves of the job Jerry Brown is doing as governor.

While this assessment is down slightly from a 57% approval mark last February, it remains higher than each of nine earlier Field Poll measures taken since his 2010 election as governor.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2446.pdf
 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Just 39 percent of North Carolina voters approve of McCrory's work, while 51 percent disapprove, according to the poll -- a record low for the first-term governor. In a May PPP survey, McCrory had a 48 percent approval rating. His numbers began to drop soon after he signed into law a controversial bill restricting abortions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/14/pat-mccroy-poll_n_3755335.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

Is Kasich really slipping? PPP is usually pretty good. To fully believe that Kasich is slipping I would need corroboration. I don't know of anything that would cause him to slip from a strong recent approval rating.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_820.pdf


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

Is Kasich really slipping? PPP is usually pretty good. To fully believe that Kasich is slipping I would need corroboration. I don't know of anything that would cause him to slip from a strong recent approval rating.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_820.pdf

Breaking, reeking scandal:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2013/08/ed_fitzgerald_calls_on_ohio_et.html#incart_river

Sickening if true.

[pbrower2a]

August 16-19, 2013
Survey of 721 Louisiana voters
August 16-19, 2013
Survey of 721 Louisiana voters

Louisiana Survey Results (PPP)

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If Louisiana were an independent republic, Bobby Jindal would have cause to fear a military coup.


... Does the term "low-information" apply to Louisiana voters or does it not?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_821.pdf

[Flake]

Wow this map is so much more democratic-friendly than what I would've thought... Especially the shades of Green in Texas and Georgia.

[badgate]

Wow this map is so much more democratic-friendly than what I would've thought... Especially the shades of Green in Texas and Georgia.

Texas probably isn't like that considering it's an open race now. He was going off polls with Rick Perry

[pbrower2a]

Wow this map is so much more democratic-friendly than what I would've thought... Especially the shades of Green in Texas and Georgia.

Some explanations:

Sam Brownback might have been a suitable Senator, but not a Governor, of Kansas. It may be easier to make the transition from a public administrator to a legislator than from being a legislator to being a public administrator.

Rick Scott began with a bare plurality in a win in Florida and then paid off his electoral base and his financial supporters while neglecting everyone else. That's a poor way to build support beyond 50%. Rick Snyder in Michigan ran as a moderate in a decidedly D-friendly state and then broke his promises. Bob Corbett in Pennsylvania and Paul LePage in Maine are just simply awful.  Kasich in Ohio and McDonnell in Virginia have developing scandals that either blow over or blow them away.

But that said, Democratic governors aren't doing so well in Connecticut, Colorado, Maryland, or especially Illinois, too. 

Texas has basically a single-party system in which the Democratic Party has become a place for meaningless protest votes by political outsiders -- much like formal opposition parties in Zimbabwe -- and the real action is in the Republican primaries to see who gets the strongest backing by the most powerful special interests. Texas is basically a dictatorship, and as a rule people tend to get the shaft unless they are among the privileged class.  It's legal for outsiders to poll Texas, and polls show how Texans think even if they are powerless to change the state government.