Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

Here we go again. I'm starting with polls that follow the general election of 2012. I am going to white out DC (no Governor) and Rhode Island (Independent Governor) and white out Congressional districts for Maine and Nebraska. Electoral votes do not matter until 2016, so ignore them.

PPP just polled some states for approval or disapproval of their incumbent Governors.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out.

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in blue and Republicans ahead will be shown in red. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Now, what about a Republican or Democrat in trouble -- one behind in polling? This time use the green for a Republican and orange for a Democrat. The same color saturation applies.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

[pbrower2a]

Virginia voters, including women and young voters, give Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, a 53 - 26 percent job approval rating, one of the highest scores in any of the seven states surveyed by Quinnipiac University, according to a poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1814

Perdue (D-NC) --  did not run for re-election.

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in blue and Republicans ahead will be shown in red. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white (also no Governor or new Governor)
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Handling a disaster not of one's own making very well does much to improve one's approval rating (Reuters-Eagleton):

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/us-storm-sandy-christie-idUSBRE8AK07B20121121?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=574655

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in blue and Republicans ahead will be shown in red. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Quinn, D-IL ... Down 64-25.

Is there a more snake-bitten office in America than Governor of Illinois?

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in blue and Republicans ahead will be shown in red. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green and orange, respectively. Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Opposite sides of the country, PPP.

First, Georgia:

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nathan Deal's job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 37%
Disapprove...................................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Now Oregon:

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kitzhaber's job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green and orange, respectively. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

Recent rushed legislation in the Michigan state legislature (a Right to Work [for much less] law and some of the most stringent anti-abortion legislation in America) could cause a sudden change in the approval rating of Governor Rick Snyder. I'm not saying how yet. 

[pbrower2a]

Nikki Haley is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 42% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 49% who disapprove. Out of 43 sitting Governors PPP has polled on, that ranks her 35th in popularity.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/colbert-tops-sc-voters-senate-wish-list.html

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3% 2% saturation
4-7% 4% saturation
8% + 6% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, Quinnipiac:


Kasich up 42-35...but for a positive that is much shakier than the 7% margin looks:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1822

New York State, also Quinnipiac:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1824



I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky, PPP:

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 34%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Kentucky_1212.pdf



I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue's job performance?
Approve ................. .35%
Disapprove............. .52%
Not sure ................. .13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable........................................................ 53%
Unfavorable .................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q10 Pat McCrory is currently employed at a law firm
that lobbies state government. Do you think
this is a conflict of interest while he prepares to
take office, or not?

It is a conflict of
interest .................... 51%
It is not ................... .31%
Not sure ................. .18%

Q11 Do you think Pat McCrory should resign
immediately from his law firm job, or not?

He should resign
immediately............. 54%
He should not......... .25%
Not sure ................. .21%


I am using approval (not favorability) ratings for Governors already in office, and not for those who have been defeated in re-election campaigns or who have declined to run for re-election. Bev Perdue is still in office, so I can't give anything on Pat McCrory yet on this map. 

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP is polling Michigan this weekend. Don't be surprised to find some results that would be counter0intuitive a few weeks ago. 

[pbrower2a]

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Sudden change in view of the Governor's acquiescence with some unpopular measures. This is not a fluke. PPP thought that it was through with 2012 polling until the Michigan state legislature "went rogue". Without this context this poll would seem an outlier. Some 'tough nerd', let alone a bunch of elected officials, miscalculated badly.

Until now Governor Snyder has not been as confrontational as Walker in Wisconsin, as out-of-touch as LePage in Maine, or as blatant as Scott in Florida.   

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...The poll for Rick Snyder would seem an outlier if one did not know what has been going on in the Michigan State legislature.



I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnnipiac, Florida:

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The State legislature fares about as badly...35-44%  The incumbent US President and both US Senators from Florida do fine.


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

Still dreadful.


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1829

Bob McDonnell is doing OK in Virginia (54 approve, 27 disapprove, 19 don't know), but he is limited to one term. The state looks like at best a 50-50 chance for a Republican hold in 2013 depending on the candidates.    


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Rick Scott, again (PPP). If Florida were an independent Republic he would be at risk of a military coup.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_116.pdf

He would win against a stray dog, but Florida has no stray dogs running.

North Carolina:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_116.pdf

How long will the honeymoon last? PPP of course polls North Carolina more than any other state.


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii, Abercrombie:

48% approve, 44% disapprove.

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/14/18076-civil-beat-poll-did-abercrombie-make-the-right-choice-for-senator/


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

I start with he assumption that any partisan Governor has an influence upon other statewide races. If that governor is popular, then he can aid the partisan election of another Candidate. If the Governor is unpopular he is a drag upon any such effort.   

A state is in white if it has no Governor or an independent Governor or if its Governor has been defeated in a re-election bid, has not run for re-election, or has chosen not to run for re-election, then the next governor will have the effect. Thus I had North Carolina in white until the latest map because unpopular Governor Bev Perdue was going to have no effect upon subsequent statewide elections in North Carolina. That includes subsequent elections of US Senators in 2014 and 2016 and the Presidency in 2016. Now that there is a Republican Governor I show an effect. I also show the state whited out if the recent Governor has died or resigned or the Governor has been removed through impeachment or recall until polls appear for the current governor. 

If the margin is 0%, then the state is in white.  Otherwise, States are colored red or orange if the incumbent Governor is a Democrat and one has post-election polls -- red if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- New York) and orange (example -- Illinois) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval... or blue or green if the  Governor is a Republican, ed if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- Virginia) and orange (example -- Florida) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval.

The rationale? Consider Florida, in which the current Republican Governor is wildly unpopular. Republican nominees for any high office are unlikely to share a stage with current Governor Rick Scott. Such could have been the difference between President Obama winning and losing Florida in 2012. Contrast Virginia, where incumbent Governor Bob McDonnell might appear on a podium with a Republican nominee for the Senate in 2014  or for the Presidency in 2016 and might be VP material.

Is it that important? Maybe not. Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia have popular Democratic Governors, and Barack Obama lost all three states decisively in 2012. Barack Obama has shown himself a bad match (at least culturally) for the heavily-rural states with much of their populations in the Appalachians and Ozarks. The next Presidential nominee will NOT be Barack Obama, and he (or she) will not get McGovern-like results in Kentucky or West Virginia.

I am not satisfied that the small margins for governors in Hawaii (Abercrombie is unusually unpopular for a Democrat in Hawaii) or North Carolina (political honeymoon) deserve to be treated as if they were 52-48 margins. I am tempted to lighten the color of those two states for Governors having small margins with total approval under 50%.   

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii, Abercrombie:

48% approve, 44% disapprove.

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/14/18076-civil-beat-poll-did-abercrombie-make-the-right-choice-for-senator/


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

I start with he assumption that any partisan Governor has an influence upon other statewide races. If that governor is popular, then he can aid the partisan election of another Candidate. If the Governor is unpopular he is a drag upon any such effort.   

A state is in white if it has no Governor or an independent Governor or if its Governor has been defeated in a re-election bid, has not run for re-election, or has chosen not to run for re-election, then the next governor will have the effect. Thus I had North Carolina in white until the latest map because unpopular Governor Bev Perdue was going to have no effect upon subsequent statewide elections in North Carolina. That includes subsequent elections of US Senators in 2014 and 2016 and the Presidency in 2016. Now that there is a Republican Governor I show an effect. I also show the state whited out if the recent Governor has died or resigned or the Governor has been removed through impeachment or recall until polls appear for the current governor. 

If the margin is 0%, then the state is in white.  Otherwise, States are colored red or orange if the incumbent Governor is a Democrat and one has post-election polls -- red if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- New York) and orange (example -- Illinois) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval... or blue or green if the  Governor is a Republican, ed if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- Virginia) and orange (example -- Florida) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval.

The rationale? Consider Florida, in which the current Republican Governor is wildly unpopular. Republican nominees for any high office are unlikely to share a stage with current Governor Rick Scott. Such could have been the difference between President Obama winning and losing Florida in 2012. Contrast Virginia, where incumbent Governor Bob McDonnell might appear on a podium with a Republican nominee for the Senate in 2014  or for the Presidency in 2016 and might be VP material.

Is it that important? Maybe not. Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia have popular Democratic Governors, and Barack Obama lost all three states decisively in 2012. Barack Obama has shown himself a bad match (at least culturally) for the heavily-rural states with much of their populations in the Appalachians and Ozarks. The next Presidential nominee will NOT be Barack Obama, and he (or she) will not get McGovern-like results in Kentucky or West Virginia.

I am not satisfied that the small margins for governors in Hawaii (Abercrombie is unusually unpopular for a Democrat in Hawaii) or the large one in North Carolina (political honeymoon) deserve to be treated as if they were 52-48 margins and 62-38 margins. I am tempted to lighten the color of those two states for Governors having small margins with total approval under 50%.   

Thanks, but I doubt that Scott's unpopularity had much to do with Obama carrying Florida.  I don't really think that it would have that much effect because it was a presidential campaign.  If it were a statewide election, however, then something like that might happen.

But was Mitt Romney making appearances with Rick Scott? On the other side, was Barack Obama making appearances with unpopular Democrat Bev Perdue?

It used to be relevant.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/SNY%20January%202013%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Maine Survey Results (PPP)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 55%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_012213.pdf

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_123.pdf

Safe.

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-01-23/news/bal-poll-shows-obama-omalley-approval-remain-strong-20130122_1_gonzales-research-death-penalty-maryland-voters

[pbrower2a]

Texans may be tiring of Rick Perry.

Texas Survey Results (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_129.pdf

He is vulnerable despite being in a very R state.   

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Rule change: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

[pbrower2a]

Rhode Island Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_RI_131.pdf

Absolutely awful. He is an independent, so I can't show any partisan advantage on the map.  Tiny Rhode Island remains in white because it is impossible to figure whether his unpopularity offers any advantage to a Democrat or to a Republican. No new map here.