Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

With the 2012 cycle behind us, it's time to start focusing on what is looking like (for now, at least) an uphill battle for Governor Corbett.

He's ending 2012 with dismal ratings (PPP has his approval in the mid 30s). To add insult to injury, Corbett isn't exactly loved by the base because of his involvement in some party matters. The real potential problem/wild card is newly elected Attorney General Kathleen Kane. She is the first Democrat to hold the office and campaigned on investigating the Sandusky scandal even further. Since Corbett was Attorney General from 2005-2011, questions are being asked as to why more wasn't done on his watch.

Will Kane go after him? Will he bother to run for re-election? If he does, will he lose the primary? The buzz in Republican circles isn't about whether or not he'll get a challenge but who will do it and how serious will it be? Businessman Scott Wagner is all but officially in the race. Will a bigger name step forward? If Corbett survives all of this, will he still be able to survive his re-election battle? Several big name Dems - former Congressman Sestak, State Treasurer Rob McCord, Auditor General Jack Wagner, Senator Casey (some think he will take the plunge in two years instead of waiting for the safer bet in 2018) - are considering a bid but will they be strong enough to break the eight year pattern?

Stay tuned. This one will be interesting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Besides the Sandusky situation, what else has Corbett done to become the most endangered incumbent, surpassing even Scott and Kasich?

Also, is there any chance for the legislature to be in play? I know that they gerrymandered the hell out of it but Democrats still had record gains in the senate. Was it just because of Obama's coattails or have they become so unpopular that Republicans are in danger of losing their majorities?

[krazen1211]

The Democrats currently have a handful of extra seats due to malapportionment. They will lose them next cycle.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The paradox for Bob Casey and why he might go now, rather than later is the risk that some other Democrat were to nab Corbett now. If that happened, 2018 goes from being the safe play to the nonexistant play. The weaker Corbett looks, the more likely Casey runs now rather than later.

[Keystone Phil]

The paradox for Bob Casey and why he might go now, rather than later is the risk that some other Democrat were to nab Corbett now. If that happened, 2018 goes from being the safe play to the nonexistant play. The weaker Corbett looks, the more likely Casey runs now rather than later.

Well, yes, but for someone as cautious as Casey, the eight year pattern looms large. He won't lose a job by running in 2014 but if he loses the General (or even the primary!) then that's two defeats in Gubernatorial races. That would seriously weaken him.

[Speed of Sound]

Corbett certainly has no bipartisan support, and the Dems are itching to send him out. I hope the party will look to Joe Sestak, whose loss shouldn't be of concern considering the climate in which he ran. Jack Wagner is not an exciting candidate at all, but is a safe run, I suppose. There's a 0% chance I would vote for Casey if the Dems ran him and if I have the spare time and am still in the area I may even jump on a third party campaign if there is one.

[Keystone Phil]

Wagner is certainly the safest bet but he'd have the primary problem.

The reason why I don't take Sestak too seriously is because he just doesn't come across as an executive. That and because I see him as more of a federal issues kind of politician (exactly why I've always laughed off Schwartz running for Governor).

[Comrade Funk]

The Wikipedia page has Josh Shapiro up there. He's a little too young imo and not very well known yet, but I actually watched an Eagles game with him. Cool guy.

[Keystone Phil]

The Wikipedia page has Josh Shapiro up there. He's a little too young imo and not very well known yet, but I actually watched an Eagles game with him. Cool guy.

He won't do it in 2014. Maybe 2018 as a Casey primary challenger. The base loves him but he's another one that doesn't rock the boat. If, for whatever reason, Casey doesn't run in 2018, look for Shapiro to run. He's most likely to take on Toomey in 2016 though. That should be a good race.

[Keystone Phil]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

You have to remember that the 2014 Senate cycle is the same one that was up in 2010, when Republicans pretty much won every seat they possibly could.  They have at least one really vulnerable seat in heavily Democratic Lower Bucks that should clearly be in Democratic hands.  At least one other SEPA Republican seat has got to be in danger. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Demographics sometimes don't understand from gerrymanders. New York Republicans thought they had locked up the senate for another decade but look what happened last week.

[Mr.Phips]

Demographics sometimes don't understand from gerrymanders. New York Republicans thought they had locked up the senate for another decade but look what happened last week.

Same with Democrats in Arkansas this year and in Alabama in 2001. 

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

You have to remember that the 2014 Senate cycle is the same one that was up in 2010, when Republicans pretty much won every seat they possibly could.  They have at least one really vulnerable seat in heavily Democratic Lower Bucks that should clearly be in Democratic hands.  At least one other SEPA Republican seat has got to be in danger. 

1) That seat isn't heavily Democratic.

2) It isn't going anywhere as long as Tomlinson runs for re-election so, no, it isn't in danger. Not to sound hostile but don't say something should "clearly" belong to one party when you don't have a clue about other factors in the race.

2014 could be Tomlinson's last race. When he goes, yes, I'll admit it will be tough to hold but we aren't at that point.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

How's that mayor of Allentown doing?

[Keystone Phil]

How's that mayor of Allentown doing?

He's been floated as a potential candidate. Don't know much about him but he could emerge as a dark horse.

[Mr.Phips]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

You have to remember that the 2014 Senate cycle is the same one that was up in 2010, when Republicans pretty much won every seat they possibly could.  They have at least one really vulnerable seat in heavily Democratic Lower Bucks that should clearly be in Democratic hands.  At least one other SEPA Republican seat has got to be in danger. 

1) That seat isn't heavily Democratic.

2) It isn't going anywhere as long as Tomlinson runs for re-election so, no, it isn't in danger. Not to sound hostile but don't say something should "clearly" belong to one party when you don't have a clue about other factors in the race.

2014 could be Tomlinson's last race. When he goes, yes, I'll admit it will be tough to hold but we aren't at that point.

That seat is heavily Democratic.  It includes the most Democratic part of Bucks county(the lower part) and probably gave Obama close to 60% of the vote in 2008 and 2012 and even went for John Kerry and Al Gore solidly.  Tomlinson himself likely wont lose, but once that seat opens up , it will likely fall into Dem hands.  Kind of the opposite of the Wozniak seat in  SWPA. 

[Keystone Phil]

Ok no offense but it doesn't necessarily work that way. You're thinking national results translate into easy wins at a more local level. That isn't the case there. Yes, the Dems have made serious inroads especially in lower Bucks (Bensalem, the township right across the street from me, is a classic example thanks to an increased minority presence) but the Bucks GOP is very strong at the state and local level. Again, when Tomlinson goes, it will certainly be competitive and probably Dem favored but it isn't a slam dunk. As long as Tommy is there, it's fine for us.

[krazen1211]

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

[Mr.Phips]

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

I was pretty sure that the map passed was going to eliminate the seat of the Republican who had to resign and go to jail.

[krazen1211]

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

I was pretty sure that the map passed was going to eliminate the seat of the Republican who had to resign and go to jail.

Technically.

http://senatorpileggi.com/PDF/redistricting/060812/FinalSenate2012MapWithZooms.pdf


Looks like they renumbered 40 to 38, and pushed 40 east. 15 and 37 will likely go back to the GOP next election as both acquired new GOP territory.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I have a feeling that Corbett won't run again, and even if he does, he'll lose in the primary.  I hope maybe Bill Scranton III may run, or maybe some high-profile Republican legislator.  I would hate to see Pennsylvania break the tradition of changing party control every eight years.

[Keystone Phil]

New Quinnipiac poll out today: Corbett approval at 40%, disapproval at 38%. I expected it to be a little worse.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I expected his approvals to rise a little, so not surprised. He's still very vulnerable (moreso than any Republican governor besides Rick Scott and Paul LePage).

But I just made this map of the PA Attorney General race this year, and:



It doesn't show, but Kathleen Kane killed in places like Fayette County and did well in the "T" overall, despite only doing slightly better than Obama and Casey in the Philly suburbs. Though she may not want to (she was just elected AG), she'd be potent against Corbett if she chose to run.