Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[morgieb]

I expected his approvals to rise a little, so not surprised. He's still very vulnerable (moreso than any Republican governor besides Rick Scott and Paul LePage).

But I just made this map of the PA Attorney General race this year, and:



It doesn't show, but Kathleen Kane killed in places like Fayette County and did well in the "T" overall, despite only doing slightly better than Obama and Casey in the Philly suburbs. Though she may not want to (she was just elected AG), she'd be potent against Corbett if she chose to run.

Looks like she did well in SWPA too, though could be wrong.

[Benj]

I expected his approvals to rise a little, so not surprised. He's still very vulnerable (moreso than any Republican governor besides Rick Scott and Paul LePage).

But I just made this map of the PA Attorney General race this year, and:



It doesn't show, but Kathleen Kane killed in places like Fayette County and did well in the "T" overall, despite only doing slightly better than Obama and Casey in the Philly suburbs. Though she may not want to (she was just elected AG), she'd be potent against Corbett if she chose to run.

Looks like she did well in SWPA too, though could be wrong.

Fayette County is SWPA.

[Keystone Phil]

She'd be seriously overplaying her hand if she ran in 2014. She did so well this year because of her high profile primary win over a well known opponent (Pat Murphy) while our nominee (a really great, extremelly qualified guy) was unknown thanks, in part, to the lack of a primary. Hell, she even had Bill Clinton come in to campaign for her. That was an "up yours" to Murphy. The Clinton's helped him big time in 2006 only to have Murphy turn around and be one of Obama's biggest cheerleaders two years later. The Clinton's were pretty bitter. Shocker, right? Anyway, Kane had a lot of cash through her primary and into November to hit the air while Freed had one ad towards the very end. It was a very one-sided race so don't think that that result is necessarily indicative of how Kane would do in other races.

[hopper]

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

[Keystone Phil]

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

Wouldn't win a primary. I'm not even sure he's interested in running for office again. I could be totally off on that but his name isn't typically floated by the usual suspects.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I expected his approvals to rise a little, so not surprised. He's still very vulnerable (moreso than any Republican governor besides Rick Scott and Paul LePage).

But I just made this map of the PA Attorney General race this year, and:



It doesn't show, but Kathleen Kane killed in places like Fayette County and did well in the "T" overall, despite only doing slightly better than Obama and Casey in the Philly suburbs. Though she may not want to (she was just elected AG), she'd be potent against Corbett if she chose to run.

I think LePage will probably win reelection, though.  He may be vulnerable, but I still think that he'll come out victorious if he runs again.

[Badger]

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

Wouldn't win a primary. I'm not even sure he's interested in running for office again. I could be totally off on that but his name isn't typically floated by the usual suspects.

Wonder if he'll run against Rothfus again. He would've likely won if he were the nominee.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett draws his first opponent: former Secretary of Environmental Protection John Hanger.

The annual Pennsylvania Society gathering in NYC is in two weeks. I'll be sure to report on the rumors that will undoubtably be swirling.

[pbrower2a]

One effect of a partisan gerrymander is that one creates a huge bench for the Other Side. Recent Reps get to run for statewide offices.

It's not Pennsylvania, but just look at one of the unintended consequences of the Indiana state legislature redistricting Rep. Joe Donnelly into an impossible seat. He ran for the Senate, which would have been futile against Dick Lugar -- but the Tea Party ran a successful challenge to Dick Lugar only for that extremist challenger to face a moderate. Donnelly got the usual Democratic votes for Lugar and won.

I don't know whether Joe Sestak would be more interested in the Governorship in 2014 or the US Senate seat in 2016.   

[Incipimus iterum]

i wonder if Jason Altmire Will Run if he did How good could he do against Corbett

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

i wonder if Jason Altmire Will Run if he did How good could he do against Corbett

Altmire could win if he ran for Congress in two years. He's probably too conservative to win a statewide nomination.

[HappyWarrior]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

I was actually working in District 39 until they transferred me to the longshot race up in District 5 in Erie County.

[Keystone Phil]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

I was actually working in District 39 until they transferred me to the longshot race up in District 5 in Erie County.

Ouch. I bet they wish they had those additional people in the 39th!

[HappyWarrior]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

I was actually working in District 39 until they transferred me to the longshot race up in District 5 in Erie County.

Ouch. I bet they wish they had those additional people in the 39th!

I think they were up pretty strongly with how far off the deepend Saccone is.

[Keystone Phil]

PoliticsPA reports that Jason Altmire is not only taking a cushy job but he's leaving the state: he will serve as Senior VP of the Florida chapter of Blue Cross Blue Shield.

[Keystone Phil]

I had a feeling he'd float this again and having this come out right before PA Society was done on propose - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-castor-mulling-primary-challenge-to-corbett/44677/


For those that don't know, Castor and Corbett have history. Their Attorney General primary in 2004 was especially nasty. Corbett (running as the establishment favorite) won with 53% to Castor's (running as the outsider just like Toomey at the same time) 47%. Castor was the Montco DA at the time. He is now in his second term as a County Commissioner.

[Keystone Phil]

“Right now I’m lining up donors, strategists, and grassroots organizers,” he said today, “and today’s announcement will enable me to gauge the support I might have for a run.” - Castor

[Nhoj]

Allyson Schwartz looks like she might might run.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121207_Allyson_Schwartz_hires_Democratic_Party_finance_chief_as_she_considers_running_against_Corbett.html

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, Schwartz has been rumored for years though I've never bought it. She's more of a legislative type and federal issues seem to be her thing (even though she spent fourteen years in the State Senate). That said, if she isn't looking to become a major leader in the House then she might do this. She's going to be too old for the Senate in 2016 and 2018.

Speaking of Schwartz for Governor, the big buzz was about her last night at Pennsylvania Society. I actually had a brief "hello" moment with her. I had a few minutes with a staffer of hers that I had class with and he wasn't doing the usual coy routine; he seemed very serious so we'll see.

I actually didn't even see the man who was supposed to be the center of attention - Bruce Castor - though he was certainly up there for the weekend.

[Keystone Phil]

The latest big news: Casey won't rule out a run in 2014.

Some PA Society partygoers stated Treasurer McCord said he will defer to Schwartz if she wants to run.

Former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (elected in 2008 and defeated in 2010) is thinking about a run.

Finally, my State Senator - Mike Stack - confirmed that he's considering throwing his hat in the ring. Hahaha...oh my...

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like I have to take back something I said: Castor wasn't in NYC. On his Facebook, he stated that he committed to be with his family during this time before all of this talk began and wasn't even asked by the media he'd attend (we all expected you to be there especially with this talk, Bruce). 

He certainly timed his announcement though. He didn't mind everyone talking about him while he wasn't there.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's a more surprising development: State Senator Tim Solobay - a Pro Life, Pro Gun "Casey Democrat" - has thrown his hat in the ring. Solobay is from the Southwest and might just benefit from the amount of Southeastern candidates running. This could be interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz talked for DCCC Finance Chair. Obviously very unlikely to run now.

[Keystone Phil]

Castor questions the timing of Corbett's NCAA lawsuit - http://mobile.pennlive.com/advpenn/pm_29239/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=JgEpuIAm

[Keystone Phil]

PPP's latest has Corbett with a 38% approval rating (among five most unpopular Governors). Pennsylvanians approve of his NCAA lawsuit but only 27% approve of his handling of the entire Penn State scandal.

Rendell leads Corbett 46% to 40%. He's tied with Kane and leads the rest:

The rest of the Democrats we tested Corbett leads by modest margins. It's 41/38 over Michael Nutter, 41/37 over John Hanger, 42/36 over Joe Sestak, 41/35 over Rob McCord, 41/34 over Allyson Schwartz, and 41/29 over Tom Wolf.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html

Only lesson Nutter by three? Ouch. Just...ouch.