Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[IceSpear]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Yes, in the same sense that David Dewhurst had a good chance of avoiding a runoff.

[J. J.]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Renomination, yes, but not reelection.  Today, I'd say it will be a Democratic gain.

[free my dawg]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Are you on drugs? Honest question.

[LeBron]

Deadline day was Tuesday. Seven Dems filed: Wolf, Wagner, McCord, Schwartz, McGinty and Hanger. Bob Guzzardi filed on the GOP side. Everything we expected. 

For Lt. Governor: Mark Smith, Brandon Neuman, Mike Stack, Jay Paterno, Brad Koplinski and Mark Critz.

CD13: Bill Clinton to stump for Margolies next month.

We do have a PA 13 thread, you know...

Hanger just pulled out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/john_hanger_withdraws_from_cam.html#incart_river_default

Awesome. And so did Jo Ellen Litz, though she didn't stand much of a chance either since both lacked cash and support and those one-issue campaigns never work, especially when it's something as minor as marijuana. Though I find it odd how Hanger gave Wagner the cold shoulder and said something nice about every other Democratic candidate except him. 

Statistically then, this means Schwartz has a 20% chance of getting the nomination, though this will likely be a race between Wolf, Schwartz, and McCord. Wolf is definitely favored, but I'm keeping my endorsement for Schwartz since she's probably the best qualified to be Governor. Her Congressional record on foreign policy and homeland security is terrible, though she wouldn't need that as Governor and the rest of her record is great. She can balance budgets, has good environmental and education records, is committed towards women's rights and the war on drugs, pro-minimum wage, pro-union, pro-gay rights, she's close to perfect. Hopefully, she can get a lot of help from the DGA and other outside groups because she'll desperately need it against Wolf.

[Keystone Phil]

Litz most likely just didn't have the signatures. I don't remember any announcement about her withdrawing. Again, not that it mattered.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

[henster]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Pennsylvania is not Texas. Perry won because of Texas's Republican lean, Corbett has to deal with his terrible approval rating in a light blue state.

[free my dawg]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Oh, I'm not ruling it out by any means. I'm just saying, to say he's favored at this point in the game is ludicrous.

[Suburbia]

The only way Corbett wins re-election is if he uses higher taxes as a wedge issue against the Democratic opponent.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Just heard about former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D)'s son committing suicide.

Very awful.

[J. J.]

Jay Paterno's nominating petitions are being challenged:  http://www.centredaily.com/2014/03/15/4085857/rival-questions-jay-paternos-nominating.html

[J. J.]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

[TX Conservative Dem]

What about the Legislature?

[free my dawg]

Not likely to flip. Won't rule it out but Corbett has a better chance of winning than the leg flipping to Ds.

[IceSpear]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

Has it? It seems pretty consistent that whichever Democrat is ahead in the primary is beating Corbett by double digits (Schwartz before, Wolf now).

[J. J.]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

Has it? It seems pretty consistent that whichever Democrat is ahead in the primary is beating Corbett by double digits (Schwartz before, Wolf now).

Yes, it has.  He is off his lows.

[free my dawg]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

[J. J.]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

[Badger]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

[publicunofficial]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

Yeah, the case seems pretty week. I don't think you need to bribe Democrats to vote against Voter I.D.

[J. J.]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

[J. J.]

McCord is entering the air war:  http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/on_the_road_in_the_lehigh_vall.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[Keystone Phil]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist. 

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

[Joshgreen]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist. 

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

Won't be a factor by the time she runs statewide.

[J. J.]

Won't be a factor by the time she runs statewide.

It may be a factor in this one.  Except for Williams, it is damaging the brand, and it is making Corbett look nonpartisan (which is more than he did in the last 9 years). 

She is suppose to do an "investigation of the investigation" of the Penn State Scandal, and this will make whatever the result is completely worthless.

The scandal is growing daily and Kane is almost to the point of no return.  When an AG shows up at the Inquirer offices with two lawyers and says that on the advice of counsel, she won't answer any questions, it is very bad (and largely self inflicted).