Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Kanegate still moving on:  http://www.phillymag.com/news/2014/04/28/abandoned-sting-case-kathleen-kane-frank-fina-grudge-match/

[J. J.]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

"Kathleen Kane" =/= "others".

About the only thing this has proven JJ, is that Corbett might be able to make a political comeback in 2016 by running against Kane (assuming he could get the GOP nom).

Kane basically won the AG's race by running against Corbett in 2012, even though Corbett was Governor at the time. 

The problem is, for Schwartz at least, is that:

1.  She is another liberal Democratic woman.

2.  Her themes, the old boy network, were Kane's themes.

Wolf does not have quite the same problem, though it still creates a problem.

In other news, Corbett is making heavy TV buys.  Fairly positive (and lacking details), and he does look grandfatherly.

 

[Badger]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

"Kathleen Kane" =/= "others".

About the only thing this has proven JJ, is that Corbett might be able to make a political comeback in 2016 by running against Kane (assuming he could get the GOP nom).

Kane basically won the AG's race by running against Corbett in 2012, even though Corbett was Governor at the time. 

The problem is, for Schwartz at least, is that:

1.  She is another liberal Democratic woman.

2.  Her themes, the old boy network, were Kane's themes.

Wolf does not have quite the same problem, though it still creates a problem.

In other news, Corbett is making heavy TV buys.  Fairly positive (and lacking details), and he does look grandfatherly.

 

One can run for a lower office by campaigning against someone who holds a higher seat. Such as any GOP congressional candidate essentially running against Obama, or Kane running for AG by campaigning against Governor Corbett.

But one can't really reverse that dynamic. Obama can run against "Congressional Republicans", and by direct extension John Boehner and Mitch McConnell because they are the clear leaders of the GOP delegations. Obama can't really run against Louis Gohmert, Steve King, Renee Elmers, etc. though.

Kane is NOWHERE near the leader of PA Dems as McConnell and Boehner are for the GOP in Congress. Nor does Kanegate appear to have diddly-squat to do with any Democrat other than herself or the Party in general. Boehner and McConnell's "obstructionism", "lack of alternative to Obamacare", and other policy positions clearly apply to all (or 99%) of Republican congressional candidates, though.

The comparisons of Schwartz to Kane by virture of gender, ideology, and general "old boys pols club" has a grain of truth to it; but let's get real, JJ. Those "connections" at most raise Kanegate's effect on the gov race to "nominal at best", up from "essentially non-existent" if Wolf in the nominee.

But it just dawned on me; absolutely nothing I or anyone else says is going to sway you from thinking Kanegate "could" realistically present an opening for Corbett, is it?

[J. J.]

Schwartz starting to step up the attacks:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/schwartz_hammers_wolf_and_corb.html#incart_river_default

She is running into some problems about releasing her tax returns.

[J. J.]

One can run for a lower office by campaigning against someone who holds a higher seat. Such as any GOP congressional candidate essentially running against Obama, or Kane running for AG by campaigning against Governor Corbett.

But one can't really reverse that dynamic. Obama can run against "Congressional Republicans", and by direct extension John Boehner and Mitch McConnell because they are the clear leaders of the GOP delegations. Obama can't really run against Louis Gohmert, Steve King, Renee Elmers, etc. though.

One reason is because there are several hundred Republican members.  In this case, there is one individual, Kane.  Schwartz has a great liability in being labeled "the next Kane."

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Not even close.  Schwartz can be depicted, strongly, as the "the next Kane."  It does energize the GOP base, and may de-energize the Democrats (we'll have to see by how much).

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It already has, in terms of her investigation of the Sandusky investigation.  There were problems for the theory that there was some type of conspiracy there before Kanegate.  Kane now looks so partisan, that any negative report will be disregarded.

I would not call it an "opening" for Corbett, but I would call it a "weakening" of the Democratic position (and a totally unnecessary one).

[Badger]

Thanks for confirming my speculation JJ. I'm off to bash my head on the keyboard now.


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There. All better now.

[henster]

At this point I don't even know why we're talking about Schwartz's problems in a GE when she's down thirty points in the primary. Wolf is the likely nominee unless something major occurs that shifts the race to her favor and Wolf has even less to do with Kane than Schwartz does.

[J. J.]

And Wolf fires back (weakly):  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/schwartz_attacking_wolf_in_gub.html#incart_river_default

At this point I don't even know why we're talking about Schwartz's problems in a GE when she's down thirty points in the primary. Wolf is the likely nominee unless something major occurs that shifts the race to her favor and Wolf has even less to do with Kane than Schwartz does.

Right now, the two candidates with a realistic shot are Schwartz, who is on the offensive, and Wolf, the current frontrunner.

Wolf is the least damaged by Kane.

[Keystone Phil]

At this point I don't even know why we're talking about Schwartz's problems in a GE when she's down thirty points in the primary. Wolf is the likely nominee unless something major occurs that shifts the race to her favor and Wolf has even less to do with Kane than Schwartz does.

Guarantee she is no where near down by thirty in the next polling. And it's not going to take something major. Wolf has a soft lead: the support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Wolf doesn't have some entrenched network with adoring fans; he had some nice ads.

[J. J.]

And the attack are launched:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_attacked_on_his_support_o.html#incart_river_default

I still think Wolf is holding, but he's weakened with York's ex-mayor as his campaign chair.

[J. J.]

Gizzardi out of governor's race:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/pa_supreme_court_ousts_guzzard.html#incart_river_default
]
Corbett backs some medical marijuana:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/medical_marijuana_pennsylvania_1.html#incart_river_default

[Keystone Phil]

And then there's the Corbett truck vs. Wolf's Jeep ad...

http://youtu.be/B0RKFaCxeXY

[henster]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

[henster]

PA facing more than 1 billion dollar shortfall; big cuts likely from Corbett in election year.

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http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/pennsylvania_gets_more_bad_bud.html

Ya I'm seeing a Corbett comeback...

[Maxwell]

Why didn't McGuinty drop out when she had the chance? Now she's going to get embarrassed.

[IceSpear]

Gizzardi out of governor's race:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/pa_supreme_court_ousts_guzzard.html#incart_river_default

Again, it's hilarious how terrified Corbett was of Guzzardi. Also very telling.

[J. J.]

Gizzardi out of governor's race:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/pa_supreme_court_ousts_guzzard.html#incart_river_default

Again, it's hilarious how terrified Corbett was of Guzzardi. Also very telling.

Nobody likes surprises in elections.  It was good strategy, but we will have to look at the abstention rate.

[J. J.]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

Do you have any earlier Muhlenberg polls?

[free my dawg]

McGinty is a hell of a lot better suited for PA-6.

[badgate]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

Do you have any earlier Muhlenberg polls?

I found this, but it looks like they haven't updated it with any post-2012 polls o.O
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/main/aboutus/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/penn_election.html

[free my dawg]

Alright. My friend went to the debate tonight (she's an ex-Hanger supporter who jumped to Schwartz). Knowing you guys, if she came here she'd probably be creeped off of the forum by this Sunday, so I'll post her thoughts:

SAWX'S PRO-SCHWARTZ FRIEND'S DEBATE ANALYSIS:

• "Schwartz was a class act, attacked Wolf again on his ties to (Stephen Stetler) and (presumably) his money.
• "McCord is a douche. He tried to tie Wolf's pension reform plan to Tom Corbett and tried to say he knew economics at 4 years old. He also talked about unions a lot"
• "McGinty dodged every question and talked about the environment the whole time. She should stick to the environment." ] (SAWX'S NOTE: really doesn't bode well for my PA-6 wish list)
• "Wolf didn't say much."

If y'all have any questions feel free to ask me and I'll relay them over.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz and McCord ramp up attacks on The Jeep One.

McCord has an ad about McCord supporting some white supremacist for mayor of York back in the day. Wolf almost immediately responds with an ad featuring the black current mayor, who is an old friend and endorser of Wolf's.

Schwartz is stepping up the attacks on Wolf's business record.

Meanwhile, Stack is on air in the Lt. Gubernatorial race. I think his ad was pretty damn good and it's part of a massive ad buy.

[J. J.]

Just saw the "no good answer" from McCord directed against Wolf:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFLB_eqcH78 

[J. J.]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

Do you have any earlier Muhlenberg polls?

I found this, but it looks like they haven't updated it with any post-2012 polls o.O
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/main/aboutus/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/penn_election.html

Thanks, I saw those.  F&M will be the key.  They've polled and they are good.

[free my dawg]

Rendell ethers McCord.