Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:00:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 43
Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread  (Read 85092 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #475 on: March 22, 2014, 08:32:16 PM »

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"


It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist. 

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

Won't be a factor by the time she runs statewide.

Yeah. Ok.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #476 on: March 22, 2014, 10:31:18 PM »

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Corbett is in such bad shape politically that he would have to rig the election to be re-elected.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #477 on: March 22, 2014, 11:04:39 PM »


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2012

So what does Nate Silver have to say about Corbett?



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Silver here discusses elections of 2006 to 2009.

The typical incumbent who was successful enough to get elected the first time can usually add 6-7% to early levels of approval to get a fair assessment of his vote share in the November election. (I would have expected reversion toward the mean, with those starting out way behind gaining the most and those far ahead seeing some support slip away). Such is the same whether the incumbent politician starts with 30% approval or 60% approval. An incumbent politician who starts with 44% approval will likely get 50% of the vote and win.

Politicians who seek re-election with approval below 35% are rare. Most spare themselves the trouble. 

Consider that appointed incumbents rarely do well. They didn't campaign for the office, and they may not know how to campaign -- and if they run, they usually gain little from their approval rating to the election. Maybe they need 50% approval with which to win.

An incumbent Governor or Senator is usually shown running against the average challenger and running a campaign of usual competence. To be sure, there can be incumbent politicians who face an unusually-strong challenger and run re-elections campaigns of unusual incompetence in a bad year for their Party and lose despite having 50% approval to begin with (George Allen in 2006). It's bad form for staffers to beat a heckler, and that probably did in the political career of George Allen. 

So why do politicians start with 51% of the vote and get approval ratings around 45% and win re-election? After they get elected they face much carping from the Other Side. That tears down approval ratings. Politicians can't be in campaign mode all the time; they must govern or legislate. But once the governing and legislating ends and campaigns begin, the opponent has to prove himself better than the incumbent. If good enough, an incumbent shows why he wins. If he is as awful as Governor Corbett, he shows that voting for him the last time was a huge mistake. 


   

So how can Tom Corbett win re-election? With his putrid approval rating, he shows that electing him was a mistake in 2010.  He might pick up 7% from his approval rating to his share of the vote in November against an average opponent in an average environment for his Party... and he would probably lose 57-43.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #478 on: March 22, 2014, 11:15:59 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2014, 11:19:36 PM by J. J. »

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #479 on: March 22, 2014, 11:35:39 PM »




So how can Tom Corbett win re-election? With his putrid approval rating, he shows that electing him was a mistake in 2010.  He might pick up 7% from his approval rating to his share of the vote in November against an average opponent in an average environment for his Party... and he would probably lose 57-43.

In 1986, Bob Casey, Sr, barely got 50% of the vote.  Less than 18 months prior to his re-election, he lost a major campaign for local government tax reform; it required a constitutional amendment that lost by about 70-30. 

In 1990, Bob Casey, Sr. won the greatest majority of any governor since 1926 and the greatest re-election since governors could be re-elected.  He won by greater than 2 to 1.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #480 on: March 23, 2014, 12:18:02 PM »




So how can Tom Corbett win re-election? With his putrid approval rating, he shows that electing him was a mistake in 2010.  He might pick up 7% from his approval rating to his share of the vote in November against an average opponent in an average environment for his Party... and he would probably lose 57-43.

In 1986, Bob Casey, Sr, barely got 50% of the vote.  Less than 18 months prior to his re-election, he lost a major campaign for local government tax reform; it required a constitutional amendment that lost by about 70-30. 

In 1990, Bob Casey, Sr. won the greatest majority of any governor since 1926 and the greatest re-election since governors could be re-elected.  He won by greater than 2 to 1.

Incumbent politicians can recover from political failures. Just look at Barack Obama. He has promoted some legislation that has failed to get enacted, and he has made appointments that have failed. Good politicians take chances but never set themselves in a position in which everything collapses if one item on the agenda fails. 

They can't recover from scandals or mishandling them.
Logged
Joshgreen
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 360
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #481 on: March 23, 2014, 01:42:58 PM »

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #482 on: March 23, 2014, 04:26:45 PM »

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.
Logged
Joshgreen
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 360
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #483 on: March 23, 2014, 04:30:17 PM »

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.

Okay, so there is a "scandal"...whatevs... She ain't running for anything and she probably won't be if this stuff is for real
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #484 on: March 24, 2014, 03:42:13 PM »

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.

Okay, so there is a "scandal"...whatevs... She ain't running for anything and she probably won't be if this stuff is for real

It reflects favorably on Corbett, as she basically ran against him in the election.  Kane just managed to do something Corbett never could; she's made Corbett look competent and nonpartisan in comparison.   
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #485 on: March 24, 2014, 07:08:35 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2014, 07:17:19 PM by Badger »

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"


It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist.  

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

The former, obviously.

That said, even taking JJ's breathless pearl-clutching with a grain of salt, the added factor of the Philly DA blasting her and arriving at an editorial board meeting essentially just to plead the Fifth!?! Shocked

This may have legs after all. Mind you, it's a long way to say how it'll affect her in 2 years running either for re-election or against Toomey. And an even bigger jump yet to say even in the best case scenario for Republicans that this will actually sway more than a thousand votes statewide for Corbett in November (especially if he faces a relative outsider like Wolf).
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #486 on: March 24, 2014, 08:29:43 PM »

First of all, this isn't a scandal in regards to Kane, unless there is some type of quid pro quo uncovered in exchange for her dropping the prosecution. It does hurt her by making people question her judgment, but that's the extent of it, barring further developments.

Secondly, I love how Corbett can supposedly win an election in 7 months with an approval rating in the 20s/30s, yet this story DOOOOOOMS Kane in a hypothetical election 31 months from now.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #487 on: March 24, 2014, 10:41:51 PM »

Corbett is not running against Kane and neither of the Gov candidates have any connections to this scandal. There has been evidence of any recovery in Corbett's approval rating in fact they have gotten even worse he is a goner.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #488 on: March 24, 2014, 10:45:31 PM »

First of all, this isn't a scandal in regards to Kane, unless there is some type of quid pro quo uncovered in exchange for her dropping the prosecution. It does hurt her by making people question her judgment, but that's the extent of it, barring further developments.

Secondly, I love how Corbett can supposedly win an election in 7 months with an approval rating in the 20s/30s, yet this story DOOOOOOMS Kane in a hypothetical election 31 months from now.


First, according to Williams, the case was sent to the feds prior to Kane taking office, and she demanded it be returned.

Second, I think it has an effect on the current election.  A lot of Corbett's negatives are from the Sandusky scandal.  Kane is investigating the investigation.. This has an effect on that.  It is coupled with some good news on that front.  Kane's investigation of Corbett's "foot dragging" will take almost as much time as the Sandusky investigation.  ESPN revealed some of the information regarding the investigation that supported Corbett.  And, in comparison, Corbett looks nonpartisan, which I thought was impossible.

Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #489 on: March 24, 2014, 11:53:18 PM »

lol J.J.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #490 on: March 25, 2014, 07:20:50 AM »

Kane's third press secretary in 14 months just resigned.  http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/5825793-74/kane-attorney-office#axzz2wifjInxz
Logged
TX Conservative Dem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #491 on: March 25, 2014, 10:48:37 AM »

Will Kane seek reelection as Pennsylvania State AG in 2016 ?
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #492 on: March 25, 2014, 11:50:18 AM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #493 on: March 25, 2014, 12:04:36 PM »

According to this article, it's misogyny the problem, not Kathleen Kane
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #494 on: March 25, 2014, 01:19:20 PM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #495 on: March 25, 2014, 06:43:32 PM »

Tom Wolf just questioned Kane's actions:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/tom_wolf_criticizes_kathleen_k.html#incart_river_default

He has also disassociated himself from one of the "Philly Five" who had endorsed him.

It's worse.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #496 on: March 25, 2014, 06:52:41 PM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.

If there is a resignation, the Governor appoints and the Senate confirms.  Every time this has happened, and it has happened three times before, the person appointed promises not to seek election in the next election.  They may in the future, as Corbett did.  He was appointed in 1995 and served until 1997.  He was elected in 2004.

Considering the makeup of the Senate, and who the Governor is (at least for the next 9 months), it will be a Republican.  Linda Kelly might be reappointed.

There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #497 on: March 25, 2014, 07:14:47 PM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.
There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,203
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #498 on: March 25, 2014, 07:20:56 PM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.
There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.


Let's ask President Romney.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #499 on: March 25, 2014, 07:50:10 PM »

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.
There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.

I'm just letting you know of the possibility.

In theory, if what Williams claimed is accurate, it could constitute either obstruction or abuse of discretion, a form of abuse of power.  His claim was that the case was send to federal prosecutors, and then recalled by Kane, who deliberately dropped it.  Right now, the evidence isn't there, but we didn't even know about the possibility until Sunday.

Impeachment and conviction comes with disqualification to hold "any office of profit or trust" under the state jurisdiction.  I would expect that Kane would resign first.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 43  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.103 seconds with 12 queries.