Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread  (Read 85090 times)
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #575 on: April 13, 2014, 08:05:29 PM »

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up. Smiley

Even when she was the "frontrunner", she was polling in the 20s. I wouldn't really call that wrapped up.

Her favored status was never really evidenced in polling, sure, but that's because was a frontrunner during the pre-primary period. It was more of a conventional wisdom thing. I guess that could lead to a debate over whether or not someone like that can ever be considered a real frontrunner.

I think she was considered the front-runner only because she was the only name people outside of Pennsylvania (Read: the beltway media) recognized.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #576 on: April 14, 2014, 07:03:44 AM »

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up. Smiley

Even when she was the "frontrunner", she was polling in the 20s. I wouldn't really call that wrapped up.

Her favored status was never really evidenced in polling, sure, but that's because was a frontrunner during the pre-primary period. It was more of a conventional wisdom thing. I guess that could lead to a debate over whether or not someone like that can ever be considered a real frontrunner.

I think she was considered the front-runner only because she was the only name people outside of Pennsylvania (Read: the beltway media) recognized.

In-state media talked her up just as much. I don't think more than a handful of people ever really thought Wolf would be the nominee. He was only mentioned as a factor because of how much money he said he'd dump in but he was always labeled as a "factor."
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J. J.
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« Reply #577 on: April 14, 2014, 11:03:17 AM »

I'm not sure, but I think some of the polling last year did list her as ahead.
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angus
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« Reply #578 on: April 14, 2014, 11:44:45 AM »

Here is the trend:



This comes from http://www.ydr.com/local/ci_25222762/tom-wolf-is-leading-other-democratic-candidates-governor



Here is the most recent reliable poll I have noticed:



It comes from here: 

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/media_items/march-2014-franklin-marshall-college-poll-release.original.pdf

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Badger
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« Reply #579 on: April 14, 2014, 04:49:20 PM »

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up. Smiley
Why do you seem to specifically hate her?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4547.0
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windjammer
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« Reply #580 on: April 14, 2014, 06:52:23 PM »

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up. Smiley
Why do you seem to specifically hate her?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4547.0
My god, you were just 15 years old and you were so politically engaged? Impressing Tongue
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #581 on: April 14, 2014, 09:53:58 PM »

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up. Smiley
Why do you seem to specifically hate her?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4547.0
My god, you were just 15 years old and you were so politically engaged? Impressing Tongue

Or just a curse.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #582 on: April 16, 2014, 07:36:46 AM »

Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #583 on: April 16, 2014, 01:08:49 PM »

Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.

Is the PAGOP really that terrified of a some guy being on the primary ballot? How sad.
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J. J.
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« Reply #584 on: April 16, 2014, 04:04:45 PM »

Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.

Is the PAGOP really that terrified of a some guy being on the primary ballot? How sad.

They remember Peg Luksic.  Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #585 on: April 16, 2014, 05:17:53 PM »

Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.

Is the PAGOP really that terrified of a some guy being on the primary ballot? How sad.

He does have a ton of money, for the record.
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J. J.
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« Reply #586 on: April 16, 2014, 07:31:56 PM »

It just got a little worse for Kane.  The sting targeted 50 people, 25 black, 23 white, and 3 Hispanic.  8 were Republican.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #587 on: April 16, 2014, 07:47:21 PM »

Meh, we have Sestak.

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J. J.
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« Reply #588 on: April 16, 2014, 11:24:56 PM »


I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.

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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #589 on: April 17, 2014, 03:19:23 AM »


I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.



lol
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windjammer
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« Reply #590 on: April 17, 2014, 03:20:36 AM »

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #591 on: April 17, 2014, 05:55:56 AM »


Because you've been so right so far on things related to Kane!
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windjammer
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« Reply #592 on: April 17, 2014, 06:01:16 AM »

Sure, Kane is actually doomed Wink
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #593 on: April 17, 2014, 11:30:23 AM »


I've said it's not a big deal so yeah I've got a pretty good track record.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #594 on: April 17, 2014, 05:05:49 PM »


I've said it's not a big deal so yeah I've got a pretty good track record.

Ok except everything here proves you wrong and not a single person backed you up that it isn't a big deal.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #595 on: April 17, 2014, 05:50:38 PM »


I've said it's not a big deal so yeah I've got a pretty good track record.

Ok except everything here proves you wrong and not a single person backed you up that it isn't a big deal.

<Raises hand>

For Kane herself, big deal. A possible chance to recover and stay in office in two years IF it doesn't get much worse or prolonged, but at very least in regards her running against Toomey--baring some independent investigation broadly, unconditionally, and LOUDLY exonerating her--she's already been "Christieized".

For the governor's race, however--meh. Even moreso if "outsider" Wolf is the nominee as expected, but not much worse even if it's Schwartz or McCord.

I'll say it again: At present it seems this realistically won't change more than about a thousand votes statewide come November. In trying to tar Wolf and other Democrats with Kane's woes, Corbett backers are grasping at straws here because---well, what else have they got? This is VERY much a Kathleen Kane problem, not a Democrat problem. And the type of Republican "rallied" enough by Kane's scandal to turn out and vote for Corbett because "CORRUPT DEMOCRATS!!" was 99% likely to vote anyway.

But don't stop believing, JJ.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #596 on: April 17, 2014, 05:59:06 PM »

If you don't think it's a big thing for the Gubernatorial race, fine. But AngryGreatness was talking about how this whole Kane saga is basically a non-story that only GOP hacks care about. He said that before J.J. even mentioned Corbett seriously benefitting from this (though maybe J.J. said that another time as well). Whatever the case, certain Dems here were dismissing this as nothing. That's so very far from reality but you know that and admitted that in your post. I think we're on or close to the same page on this.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #597 on: April 17, 2014, 06:13:01 PM »

If you don't think it's a big thing for the Gubernatorial race, fine. But AngryGreatness was talking about how this whole Kane saga is basically a non-story that only GOP hacks care about. He said that before J.J. even mentioned Corbett seriously benefitting from this (though maybe J.J. said that another time as well). Whatever the case, certain Dems here were dismissing this as nothing. That's so very far from reality but you know that and admitted that in your post. I think we're on or close to the same page on this.

So you typed all that just to say "I agree"? Tongue

I skimmed AG's prior posts and don't see where he specifically said that it's not a big deal for Kane, but again I just skimmed and could be wrong. His last post you responded to seems to say it's not a big deal for the gov race; not necessarily about Kane. It appears to have been in response to JJ's characteristically breathless hype that this is somehow a game changer for Corbett.

Of course I'm no mindreader either.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #598 on: April 17, 2014, 06:32:35 PM »

I may just be doing this to make JJ and KP mad. Trying to outhack the hacks.

Possibly.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #599 on: April 17, 2014, 06:43:39 PM »

I may just be doing this to make JJ and KP mad. Trying to outhack the hacks.

Possibly.

I always like this part: point out how I'm a hack especially in this thread. I think I've been anything but unfair in how I've posted news and analysis here.
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