Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Article on the gubernatorial race spending:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/spending_mounts_in_costly_demo.html#incart_river_default

Wolf and McCord have burnt through their war chests, with $1 million and $600 K left, respectively.

Wolf is taking a bombardment from 3 directions:

1.  Race (McCord).

2.  Management (Schwartz).

3.  Tax and Spend (Corbett, the weakest in a D primary).

We'll see if these have done any damage and how much.

[Peter the Lefty]

I guess I'm going for Wolf in my first ever vote, although I had originally been hoping for John Hanger (and then McCord).  I still am having doubts as to whether I should write in Daylin Leach or just hold my nose and vote for the godawful millionaire lightweight.

[J. J.]

McCord now running attack spots on Wolf pension plans.

McCord is also rhyming:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/racial_rhetoric_reigns_at_phil.html#incart_river_default

[Badger]

Any recent polls on the primary? It'd be interesting to see if any of the attacks are materially hurting Wolf, and/or if any of his competitors are gaining any traction.

[J. J.]

Any recent polls on the primary? It'd be interesting to see if any of the attacks are materially hurting Wolf, and/or if any of his competitors are gaining any traction.

Just now.  Wolf still with a huge lead in the F & M poll, 17 points, but that is a 9 point drop.  McCord is at 13, Schwartz at 20, which marks an improvement.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/wolf_double-digit_lead_narrows.html#incart_river_default

Wolf, damaged, but far from destroyed.

[Keystone Phil]

Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

[Tender Branson]

Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

Nope, bigger:

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Wolf, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, or Allyson Schwartz?

50% Wolf
15% Schwartz
15% McCord
  5% McGinty

Pennsylvania Governor Democratic Primary Poll
May 12-13, 2014

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-governor-democratic-primary-poll

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, not counting Harper.

[moderatevoter]

Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

Congrats, Phil.

[IceSpear]

Harper also polled the Lt. Gov primary:

20% Stack
18% Critz
9% Koplinski
6% Smith
5% Neuman
42% undecided

I'll admit I haven't paid a single iota of attention to this race, but looks like I'll be voting Stack since he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

[Keystone Phil]

Critz cancelled his media buy, too. This is going to come down to a turn out operation and guess which candidate has Philly behind him...

[Maxwell]

Harper also polled the Lt. Gov primary:

20% Stack
18% Critz
9% Koplinski
6% Smith
5% Neuman
42% undecided

I'll admit I haven't paid a single iota of attention to this race, but looks like I'll be voting Stack since he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

I don't really know Pennsylvania, but why are Democrats such as yourself against Critz?

[free my dawg]

Harper also polled the Lt. Gov primary:

20% Stack
18% Critz
9% Koplinski
6% Smith
5% Neuman
42% undecided

I'll admit I haven't paid a single iota of attention to this race, but looks like I'll be voting Stack since he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

I don't really know Pennsylvania, but why are Democrats such as yourself against Critz?

Critz is pro-life.

[Maxwell]

Harper also polled the Lt. Gov primary:

20% Stack
18% Critz
9% Koplinski
6% Smith
5% Neuman
42% undecided

I'll admit I haven't paid a single iota of attention to this race, but looks like I'll be voting Stack since he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

I don't really know Pennsylvania, but why are Democrats such as yourself against Critz?

Critz is pro-life.

Oh, okay. That's a good reason.

[J. J.]

Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

Nope, bigger:

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Wolf, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, or Allyson Schwartz?

50% Wolf
15% Schwartz
15% McCord
  5% McGinty

Pennsylvania Governor Democratic Primary Poll
May 12-13, 2014

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-governor-democratic-primary-poll

F & M's Terry Madonna is possibly the best pollster for PA.  I would be shocked with Wolf winning by a 35 point margin.  I would not be a 145 point margin.

[IceSpear]

Harper also polled the Lt. Gov primary:

20% Stack
18% Critz
9% Koplinski
6% Smith
5% Neuman
42% undecided

I'll admit I haven't paid a single iota of attention to this race, but looks like I'll be voting Stack since he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

I don't really know Pennsylvania, but why are Democrats such as yourself against Critz?

Critz is pro-life.

Oh, okay. That's a good reason.

Also anti-gay. He voted against DADT repeal.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

[Badger]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

Which in a governor's race in a (non-Atlas) blue state, won't do him much good. Which is why he likely won't adopt such a stupid strategy.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

Which in a governor's race in a (non-Atlas) blue state, won't do him much good. Which is why he likely won't adopt such a stupid strategy.

I don't think running against Obama is a stupid strategy at all even if it's for a non-federal race. Yeah, the state voted for Obama. Twice. But he's not immune from unpopularity now because of that.

Corbett will definitely be banking on Anti Obama sentiments to try to hang on. It's a big reason why he so obviously wants to face Schwartz.

And, for the record, Corbett has been running ads against Wolf (the thought-to-be strongest Dem).

[Badger]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

Which in a governor's race in a (non-Atlas) blue state, won't do him much good. Which is why he likely won't adopt such a stupid strategy.

I don't think running against Obama is a stupid strategy at all even if it's for a non-federal race. Yeah, the state voted for Obama. Twice. But he's not immune from unpopularity now because of that.

Corbett will definitely be banking on Anti Obama sentiments to try to hang on. It's a big reason why he so obviously wants to face Schwartz.

And, for the record, Corbett has been running ads against Wolf (the thought-to-be strongest Dem).

Well, if he's litterally got that little else to run on, then I guess any plan is better than none.

I just can't see many swing voters changing their votes for governor over Benghazi and opposing Obamacare.

[angus]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

That's exactly what his campaign is doing.  In a radio ad released about two weeks ago, theytook aim at Wolf's record when he was serving as PA revenue secretary.  Now, they're mass mailing pamphlets.  I'm not a longtime resident of PA, but I don't think this sort of meddling by one party in another's primary is regular here.

[Keystone Phil]

Unemployment down to 5.7% in PA.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unemployment down to 5.7% in PA.

Thanks Obama

[IceSpear]

Unemployment down to 5.7% in PA.

[angus]

Unemployment down to 5.7% in PA.

Less than the US rate and actually attained because people went to work, rather than via a redefinition of the labor force.  Nice.  Here's some detail from the local paper:  "Total nonfarm jobs grew by 10,900 in April to reach 5,768,800, the highest level since October 2008. The gain was concentrated in the private sector, which added 11,600 jobs while public sector jobs fell by 700.  The largest gain was in professional and business services (up 8,100), which reached a record high at 759,000 jobs.  Construction also added a large amount of jobs in April, up 6,500, the third gain in the last four months..."

This might be good news for incumbent politicians, if those new jobs are actually going to permanent residents of Pennsylvania, rather than people from Louisiana and Oklahoma on the gas rigs.  I haven't seen any detailed statistics about that.