Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Tender Branson]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

[windjammer]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

[Tender Branson]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I meant that Phil can be happy if Corbett loses by a bigger margin than Santorum ...

[windjammer]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I meant that Phil can be happy if Corbett loses by a bigger margin than Santorum ...

Aaaaaaaaaaaaah, sorry Tender Branson

[Tender Branson]

And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

There were already 2 other polls that have shown 20-point leads for Wolf.

And let's see what PPP has next week (and probably Quinnipiac).

I definitely can see how Wolf is ahead by 20 right now, if Corbett is in the low 30s in terms of favorability.

And Wolf on the other hand is quite popular, if I remember correctly.

All of this can still change until election day, but right now it looks good ...

[IceSpear]

Looks like rather than Mark Pryor, Tom Corbett is the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. Complete with pundits hedging about the massive polling leads with cries of: "Never count out an incumbent!"

[J. J.]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I think Corbett will close the gap, but not win.

The only thing that could save him would some resounding legislative victories, e.g. privatizing the state store system.  I would be surprised if he got it.

[henster]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

[IceSpear]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

[DINGO Joe]

Shouldn't we wait for the krazen2014 Accupoll to come out before declaring a trend?

[J. J.]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

[Hifly]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

[Hifly]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

They need to gain 2 seats... And yep, there is a dem seat that will go republican, but they have other opportunities.


Yep, they have an advantage, but when you have an incumbent governor who risks to be trounced, that doesn't help them at all.

What you're saying is that PA democrats WON'T win the PA senate.
Me, I believe that's a possibility because they have some opportunities, especially with a badly unpopular governor. 

[Hifly]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

They need to gain 2 seats... And yep, there is a dem seat that will go republican, but they have other opportunities.

That means they need to gain 3 seats because Democrats DON'T HAVE A CANDIDATE FOR ONE OF THE SEATS THEY HOLD (38).

I think coattails are overestimated. Remember even Chris Christie's thumping win didn't help Republicans at all in the state legislature.

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

They need to gain 2 seats... And yep, there is a dem seat that will go republican, but they have other opportunities.

That means they need to gain 3 seats because Democrats DON'T HAVE A CANDIDATE FOR ONE OF THE SEATS THEY HOLD (38).

I think coattails are overestimated. Remember even Chris Christie's thumping win didn't help Republicans at all in the state legislature.

So overall, they have to gain 2 seats: they have 23 seats, they need to have 25 seats...

For the NJ, two reasons:
-The chambers were dem gerrymanders.
-And the NJ democrats weren't unpopular, Christie was popular. That's not the same thing this time for PA republicans, where the governor and his agenda is BADLY unpopular.


Flipping this chamber is a possibility, I haven't even said it was likely. But saying "they won't win", implying they have virtually no chance to pick up this chamber, is really a pro republican comment.

[Hifly]

No, you're still wrong on the numbers and I don't know why.

Let's do this slowly:

If Democrats gain 2 seats in the senate, the Republicans will have a majority of 26-24. The Democrats will have not taken back the senate. This is because there is no Democratic candidate in Senate District 38, so Republicans start at an advantage of 28-22. Therefore, they need to gain 3 seats to bring it to a tie of 25-25 which allows the Lt. Gov. to cast a tie breaking vote in their favour.

Do you have substantial evidence that the targeted Republican legislators in the Senate themselves have suddenly become exceptionally unpopular, regardless of how unpopular Corbett and his agenda is?

[Hifly]

Also, when are your State House PVIs coming out? The suspense is killing me.

[windjammer]

You know, if the democrats pick up 3 seats but they lose 1 seat: overall they still have to win 2 seats, this is what I wanted to say, I know very well that a dem seat is already lost.

Considering you have basically 4 open seats (1 democrat and 3 republicans) that will probably be won by Wolf, these seats are definitely in play.

And then, there are 3 rep seats in lean D/swingy district, they would probably be safe without Corbett, but when you have an incumbent governor that is badly unpopular, his party will obviously suffer because of him. Is it enough to win one of these seats? Probably not, but that's a possibility.

As I said, flipping the PA senate is a possibility, this is not likely. But that's a possibility, so saying "Democrats won't win the chamber" is definitely overestimating Republicans' chances. The PA senate is in play, the republicans have an advantage, but this chamber is in play.



-------------------------
I have some problems with a state, but except that, it should be soon be available!

[Keystone Phil]

There has always been concern about down ballot races this year but we're actually in a good position to totally cancel out Dem gains or so I've heard from fairly objective analysts. Looks like the party is doing a good job of separating these races from the top of the ballot.

Both chambers will stay Republican.

[Hifly]

Also, with so many pro-life, pro-traditional family values Democrats in the state legislature, it would be literally impossible for socially liberal legislation to pass the legislature even with reasonably substantial Democratic Majorities.

Pennsylvania Democrats are Awesome

Are there any pro-choice Republicans in the legislature?

[IceSpear]

Luckily I live in SD-26 (D+2, incumbent Republican retiring), so my vote actually matters in Senate control.

While Republicans are definitely favored to hold the chamber, it is by no means a sure thing, with the gubernatorial race looming large. And while it's not known what effect Wolf's coattails will have, they certainly can't hurt.

[Keystone Phil]

Are there any pro-choice Republicans in the legislature?

Plenty from the Southeast.