Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[henster]

The budget situation in Pennsylvania appears to be worsening the budget shortfall has grown to 1.2B as tax collections continue to tumble. Corbett obviously is committed to no new taxes so that means big cuts in an election year.

http://www.enquirerherald.com/2014/06/02/3054920/corbett-shuns-tax-increases-amid.html?sp=/99/117/

[pbrower2a]

The budget situation in Pennsylvania appears to be worsening the budget shortfall has grown to 1.2B as tax collections continue to tumble. Corbett obviously is committed to no new taxes so that means big cuts in an election year.

http://www.enquirerherald.com/2014/06/02/3054920/corbett-shuns-tax-increases-amid.html?sp=/99/117/

That is one way to be defeated -- making unpopular budget cuts.  Such is good for GOTV drives by the Other Side. Tom Corbett will have coattails this year -- but his coattails will be pulling other Republicans into the same political quicksand.

[windjammer]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

[tmthforu94]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

[free my dawg]

LE SCANDAL

[windjammer]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

No, this isn't really alarming for PA republicans. Toomey's chances will always be the same: in case of a republican year: he would be the favorite, in case of a neutral year: he would be slight favorite, and in case of a democratic year: he would lose.

But the poll just shows that some people have a bit overestimated the effect of Kanegate. That's all.

[J. J.]

PPP has Wolf up 25!

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/06/wolf_running_away_new_poll_has.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[J. J.]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

Same poll has Casey 34-31.  That does not sound right.

[Keystone Phil]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

LE SCANDAL

But leading Sestak by six? Come on. Kane being up has everyone scratching their head.

[IceSpear]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

LE SCANDAL

But leading Sestak by six? Come on. Kane being up has everyone scratching their head.

Apparently Pennsylvanians have very short memories. Despite being re-elected less than 2/4 years ago, 35% have no opinion of Casey or Toomey. 64% have no opinion of Sestak, whereas Kane is much closer to Toomey on name recognition (46% have no opinion), which I'm guessing is what explains the difference.

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

[J. J.]

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

[IceSpear]

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

In the 2016 matchups Toomey wins between 31-39% of African Americans. He won 7% in 2010. It's much more likely to be statistical noise.

[Tender Branson]

From Quinnipiac:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

[Keystone Phil]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

[J. J.]

Q has it Wolf up 19 points:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa06042014_al2de54.pdf

[J. J.]

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

In the 2016 matchups Toomey wins between 31-39% of African Americans. He won 7% in 2010. It's much more likely to be statistical noise.

Like I said, I think the Senate numbers are way off. 

[Sol]

Could the legislature fall to the Dems?

[Hifly]

Could the legislature fall to the Dems?

Could, but won't.

[Flake]

Could the legislature fall to the Dems?

Could, but won't.

I believe the Senate will switch to Democratic control, not the house.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

[Flake]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

It's also PPP with very similar numbers to the Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls,  so I doubt anything is very different from theirs.

[publicunofficial]

Change this race to Safe R

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016

You're right, but that hasn't changed a lot of things for Kane.
Even if some polls should poll this match up as well, Kanegate doesn't seem to have hurt her so much as some people could pretend on this thread.