Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[IceSpear]

Change this race to Safe R

Wow, TX Conservative Dem sure looks prescient now. He knew this would happen along!

[Keystone Phil]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016

You're right, but that hasn't changed a lot of things for Kane.
Even if some polls should poll this match up as well, Kanegate doesn't seem to have hurt her so much as some people could pretend on this thread.

This isn't a "pretend" thing amongst people here and hacks. If you don't think or know that Kane's credibility within her party has been seriously damaged, that's on you, my friend.

[TX Conservative Dem]

How many debates will Wolf and Corbett have between each other ?

[Keystone Phil]

Attorney General Kathleen Kane's report notes that there is no proof that then-AG Corbett stalled on Sandusky investigation - http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=%2Fphilly%2Fhp%2Fnews_update%2F&id=262229091

[J. J.]

Attorney General Kathleen Kane's report notes that there is no proof that then-AG Corbett stalled on Sandusky investigation - http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=%2Fphilly%2Fhp%2Fnews_update%2F&id=262229091

A minor boost to Corbett.

Katy "Konspiracy" Kane takes another hit.

The Joebots are wrapping another layer of tinfoil around their heads.

The "investigation of the investigation" has taken half the time of the Corbett/Kelley investigation, which spanned more than a decade.

[IceSpear]

Decent news for Corbett, but it'll take a lot more than that to close a 20 point deficit.

[Maxwell]

He should go back to Santorum margins now instead of Blanche margins

[DemPGH]

My guess is that no one is really going to care about that; in fact, it puts "Sandusky" and "Corbett" in the same sentence again when people around here would love to forget about both of them as expeditiously as possible.

[free my dawg]

McGinty challenging Burn for PADP chair, and according to reports, Wolf is the one behind it.

[J. J.]

Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[NHLiberal]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016

You're right, but that hasn't changed a lot of things for Kane.
Even if some polls should poll this match up as well, Kanegate doesn't seem to have hurt her so much as some people could pretend on this thread.

There is no such thing as "Kanegate." Don't even indulge him by using his hackish terminology.

[IceSpear]

Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1

#Corbettmentum

I saw an interesting idea a couple days ago...is it possible for the PAGOP to replace Corbett at the last second with somebody else? Obviously it almost certainly wouldn't be enough to win, but it could help them down ballot by eliminating Corbett's reverse coattails. What would be the cutoff for when they could possibly do this?

[NHLiberal]

Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1

#Corbettmentum

I saw an interesting idea a couple days ago...is it possible for the PAGOP to replace Corbett at the last second with somebody else? Obviously it almost certainly wouldn't be enough to win, but it could help them down ballot by eliminating Corbett's reverse coattails. What would be the cutoff for when they could possibly do this?

I feel like at this point it would't change anything. What candidate that would be good enough to narrow the gap a little bit would be willing to run in a guaranteed loss at the last minute?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Waiting to see how the debates are going to look like between Corbett and Wolf.

I just can't see Corbett pulling a David Palmer and dropping out at the last second because the election is 4 months away.

[Keystone Phil]

There is no such thing as "Kanegate." Don't even indulge him by using his hackish terminology.

Hilarious especially as this came out today - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=265463571&

G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said the statement by the district attorneys was a blow to Kane's image.

"Being rebuked in a sense by your prosecutorial colleagues is about as damaging an element for an incumbent officeholder as you can find," Madonna said.

He said he could not recall county prosecutors criticizing the state's top prosecutor before. "This is unprecedented," he said.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I wonder what it would take to get Cook Political Report to move this out of Toss-Up. Kasich doesn't even half the lead that Wolf has, yet he gets a Leans R, while Wolf doesn't even get to move out of Toss-Up.

(I have this race at Likely D, and if Corbett doesn't improve his numbers within the rest of this month, I'll be moving it to Safe D despite republican-favorable historical trends.)

[J. J.]

There is no such thing as "Kanegate." Don't even indulge him by using his hackish terminology.

Hilarious especially as this came out today - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=265463571&

G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said the statement by the district attorneys was a blow to Kane's image.

"Being rebuked in a sense by your prosecutorial colleagues is about as damaging an element for an incumbent officeholder as you can find," Madonna said.

He said he could not recall county prosecutors criticizing the state's top prosecutor before. "This is unprecedented," he said.

Actually, it is not completely unprecedented.  It happened with a local DA in July of 2008.

She managed to blow the press conference, suggesting additional Sandusky victims, one of which appeared at the trial.  She actually made a good hire with Moulton.  He wrote a good report, came up with some legitimate criticism, and then she blows it.

One blogger wrote,  "Ms. Kane, instead of emphasizing her good judgment in hiring Mr. Moulton, metaphorically shot from the hip, and hit herself in the foot." 

Here is the prosecutor's letter:  http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20140702_Stop_attacks_on_prosecutors.html

[windjammer]

No recent news???

[IceSpear]

No recent news???

I'm sure once a poll shows Wolf winning by "only" 10-15 points, Phil and J.J. will be back to claim momentum.

[Keystone Phil]

No recent news???

I'm sure once a poll shows Wolf winning by "only" 10-15 points, Phil and J.J. will be back to claim momentum.

...

Point out one hackish thing I've said in this thread.

[IceSpear]

No recent news???

I'm sure once a poll shows Wolf winning by "only" 10-15 points, Phil and J.J. will be back to claim momentum.

...

Point out one hackish thing I've said in this thread.

It was a joke.

[J. J.]

Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

[Flake]

Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Even though both chambers are controlled by Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Actually it's 52-39 Wolf with leaners. Not that it matters since YouGov is crap.

[J. J.]

Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Even though both chambers are controlled by Republicans.

They are.   

I hadn't seen it, but there was a commentary that said the same thing.

It is a very strange year in Pennsylvania.