Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

Special Prosecutor investigating Kane's office - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=273355891&

But Kane has nothing to worry about. Some kids on their computers said so.

No, what some kids on their computer said is Wolf has nothing to worry about over this.

They're right.

Wrong. Several said the Kane scandal was just "partisan hackery," overblow and not real trouble for her. I'm not posting this as a connection to the Gubernatorial race just as their comments were made separate of the race as well.

[Badger]

Special Prosecutor investigating Kane's office - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=273355891&

But Kane has nothing to worry about. Some kids on their computers said so.

No, what some kids on their computer said is Wolf has nothing to worry about over this.

They're right.

Wrong. Several said the Kane scandal was just "partisan hackery," overblow and not real trouble for her. I'm not posting this as a connection to the Gubernatorial race just as their comments were made separate of the race as well.

Meh, I seem to remember most of the response (though yes, not all) being to JJ's hackery that this may unite Republicans and give Corbett a shot, yadda yadda.

But we're probably debating semantics as Kane's challenge to Toomey is clearly DOA, and at this rate she'll be in serious trouble to simply survive re-election.

[Miles]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

[free my dawg]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

It is, but strangely enough he thinks it leans Democratic.

[NHLiberal]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

Oh wow, so Democrats only actually need to net a 2 seat gain to have the majority because the LG tie breaker will be a Democrat. So if they pick up 26, 40, and 6 and lose 32 or a different one, that would be enough.

EDIT: Never mind. I just read the bit at the end that says that one seat is guaranteed to flip D to R because of the retirement/redistricting/Republican running unopposed

[windjammer]

Pennsylvania



SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
3   DEM   42
4   DEM   33
5   DEM   8
6   REP   2
7   DEM   18
8   DEM   37
9   REP   5
10   REP   -1
11   DEM   4
12   REP   -1
13   REP   -5
14   DEM   2
15   DEM   -2
16   REP   3
17   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
19   DEM   2
20   REP   -8
21   REP   -16
22   DEM   11
23   REP   -15
24   REP   -2
25   REP   -15
26   REP   2
27   REP   -12
28   REP   -10
29   REP   -9
30   REP   -20
31   REP   -13
32   DEM   -10
33   REP   -16
34   REP   -5
35   DEM   -10
36   REP   -16
37   DEM   -8
38   DEM   -5
39   REP   -14
40   REP   -1
41   REP   -16
42   DEM   13
43   DEM   20
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
46   DEM   -4
47   REP   -7
48   REP   -11
49   DEM   7
50   REP   -6


SD   INC   PVI
3   DEM   42
8   DEM   37
4   DEM   33
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
43   DEM   20
7   DEM   18
42   DEM   13
22   DEM   11
5   DEM   8
17   DEM   7
49   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
9   REP   5
11   DEM   4
16   REP   3
6   REP   2
14   DEM   2
19   DEM   2
26   REP   2
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
10   REP   -1
12   REP   -1
40   REP   -1
15   DEM   -2
24   REP   -2
46   DEM   -4
13   REP   -5
34   REP   -5
38   DEM   -5
50   REP   -6
47   REP   -7
20   REP   -8
37   DEM   -8
29   REP   -9
28   REP   -10
32   DEM   -10
35   DEM   -10
48   REP   -11
27   REP   -12
31   REP   -13
39   REP   -14
23   REP   -15
25   REP   -15
21   REP   -16
33   REP   -16
36   REP   -16
41   REP   -16
30   REP   -20
With this PVI, we understand how PA has been the only state to have a pro-choice republican and a pro life democrat. PA Republicans try to be competitive in the suburbs from Philadelphia. While PA democrats try to overperform West Pennsylvania.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_1986
This gubernational election just shows the contrast perfectly!
Only half of the seats are up for reelection in 2014 (2,4,6,….50)
32 and 38, two conservative seats hold by the democrats, will be open seats in 2014. The 38th seat will be probably a rep pick up. The 32th seat, hmmm, PA democrats are lining a good recruit, a state representative from a district with the same PVI than the 32th seat. It will be highly contested.
26, the incumbent republican is retiring. A D+2 district, so I guess PA democrats should be favored to pick up this seat.
The 50th district, a R+6 district and the republican is retiring. Republicans are favored to hold this seat, but I believe this “might” be a dem opportunity. This district is from West Pennsylvania and West Pennsylvania is historically dem I guess? So,… But seriously, the democrat would start as an underdog.
The 40th district: an open seat, a swingy district. This will be competitive.Scavello, the rep candidate, is from a swingy house seat and is definitely the favorite. But I guess democrats can pick up this seat, but it will need a dem wave.
SD6-SD12-SD16: And some rep  incumbents running for reelection in a toss up/lean D district, personally I think they will be reelected.
So, I guess Republicans are favored to keep the PA senate.  (I wouldn't say the same thing for the Governorship haha).

My earlier poll about the PA state senate .

[Keystone Phil]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

[windjammer]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

And what did he say Phil? The PA state senate would stay republican or something like that I guess?

[Keystone Phil]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

And what did he say Phil? The PA state senate would stay republican or something like that I guess?

That we'd keep the in-play GOP seats and gain the two Dem seats.

[windjammer]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

And what did he say Phil? The PA state senate would stay republican or something like that I guess?

That we'd keep the in-play GOP seats and gain the two Dem seats.

Haha .

And what do you expect, Phil? The Republicans keep the senate? They would gain seats?

[Keystone Phil]

Probably a wash: we gain a seat and they do, too.

[windjammer]

A question to Phil or anyone who has a lot of knowledge about PA:
If Wolf wins, will the PA Supreme Court be controlled by democrats during his term???

[Keystone Phil]

A question to Phil or anyone who has a lot of knowledge about PA:
If Wolf wins, will the PA Supreme Court be controlled by democrats during his term???

Our Supreme Court is elected so it's not like Wolf is going to make appointments to swing the control.

[Vega]

Our Supreme Court is elected.

Though we should probably change that.

[Keystone Phil]

Our Supreme Court is elected.

Though we should probably change that.

It's unquestionably one of my biggest political pet peeves. I hate that we elect judges. Hate it. It's so backwards.

[windjammer]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/actor-pennsylvania-campaign-ad-starred-2-torture-porn-films-article-1.1933784

lmao

[Vega]

Our Supreme Court is elected.

Though we should probably change that.

It's unquestionably one of my biggest political pet peeves. I hate that we elect judges. Hate it. It's so backwards.

It's just one of those things that sound good on paper, but in reality it's a terrible idea.

[windjammer]

I hope PPP will poll PA. Just for the state senate. I read basically: "BLABLA THE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED, and "BLABLA THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN 2 SEATS", would like to have some polls .

[IceSpear]

I hope PPP will poll PA. Just for the state senate. I read basically: "BLABLA THE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED, and "BLABLA THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN 2 SEATS", would like to have some polls .

I don't think PPP polls state legislature races, other than a generic ballot, which would be pretty useless considering the gerrymandering.

[Keystone Phil]

I hope PPP will poll PA. Just for the state senate. I read basically: "BLABLA THE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED, and "BLABLA THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN 2 SEATS", would like to have some polls .

I don't think PPP polls state legislature races, other than a generic ballot, which would be pretty useless considering the gerrymandering.

They have but I think it's been almost exclusively in their home state of NC (exceptions include the WI recalls).

[free my dawg]

I hope PPP will poll PA. Just for the state senate. I read basically: "BLABLA THE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED, and "BLABLA THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN 2 SEATS", would like to have some polls .

I don't think PPP polls state legislature races, other than a generic ballot, which would be pretty useless considering the gerrymandering.

They have but I think it's been almost exclusively in their home state of NC (exceptions include the WI recalls).

I think they did CO too. I don't see them polling PA's downballot races - maybe they'll do a generic legislative ballot, but not specific seats.

[President Johnson]

There's a new poll now, with Tom Corbett trailing badly. Wolf receives 59% while Corbett is at 35%. Governor Corbett seems to be finshed. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2078

[Miles]

Sabato finally moves PA from Leans to Likely D.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Sabato finally moves PA from Leans to Likely D.

Bout damn time.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato finally moves PA from Leans to Likely D.

Bout damn time.

Now the only predictor to still have it at Lean D is Cook.

There's a part of me that's worried that Cook is seeing something that nobody else is that makes Corbett more competitive than any of us think, but hopefully that's not the case.