Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread  (Read 85097 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #900 on: September 18, 2014, 11:23:04 AM »


Now the only predictor to still have it at Lean D is Cook.

There's a part of me that's worried that Cook is seeing something that nobody else is that makes Corbett more competitive than any of us think, but hopefully that's not the case.

I think he's seeing that you can make money by convincing people that your three-month old SWAGs about election results are the most accurate predictor of how said elections will turn out in November.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #901 on: September 18, 2014, 12:28:39 PM »


Damn, now I have less material to mock him with. Sad
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #902 on: September 19, 2014, 12:39:49 AM »


No, we still have a while for us to rail on him for it not being safe D.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #903 on: September 19, 2014, 12:44:08 AM »


they still think Idaho might be competitive
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IceSpear
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« Reply #904 on: September 19, 2014, 12:56:39 AM »


I think he may feel the need to do a completely random and unreasonable rating change every time he updates. First Minnesota, and now Idaho. I wonder which will be next?
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #905 on: September 19, 2014, 07:15:13 PM »


I think he may feel the need to do a completely random and unreasonable rating change every time he updates. First Minnesota, and now Idaho. I wonder which will be next?

You heard it here first: Oregon gov is a tossup
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #906 on: September 19, 2014, 10:48:05 PM »

First debate is Monday. Corbett needs a game changer so it should be interesting to see what goes down.
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KCDem
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« Reply #907 on: September 20, 2014, 01:07:39 AM »

First debate is Monday. Corbett needs a game changer so it should be interesting to see what goes down.

Corbett needs a miracle.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #908 on: September 20, 2014, 01:30:30 PM »

Why did Wolf agree to debate in the first place? Couldn't he have pulled a Kasich and just ignored it? He's so far up in the polls as is.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #909 on: September 20, 2014, 02:38:10 PM »

Why did Wolf agree to debate in the first place? Couldn't he have pulled a Kasich and just ignored it? He's so far up in the polls as is.

He wasn't going to get away with flat out refusing to debate.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #910 on: September 20, 2014, 03:35:03 PM »

Why did Wolf agree to debate in the first place? Couldn't he have pulled a Kasich and just ignored it? He's so far up in the polls as is.

He wasn't going to get away with flat out refusing to debate.

From what I can tell, ducking debates rarely has any lasting consequences. More likely is that Wolf is just confident he can beat Corbett.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #911 on: September 20, 2014, 03:59:43 PM »

Why did Wolf agree to debate in the first place? Couldn't he have pulled a Kasich and just ignored it? He's so far up in the polls as is.

He wasn't going to get away with flat out refusing to debate.

From what I can tell, ducking debates rarely has any lasting consequences. More likely is that Wolf is just confident he can beat Corbett.

I remember Tom Wolf was fairly solid in those Democratic debates anyways, so it probably won't be a problem.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #912 on: September 20, 2014, 04:11:59 PM »

Yeah, a challenger really can't pull the "above the debates" card the way an incumbent can. And a challenger 20 points ahead has very little to fear.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #913 on: September 20, 2014, 10:45:40 PM »

Why did Wolf agree to debate in the first place? Couldn't he have pulled a Kasich and just ignored it? He's so far up in the polls as is.

He wasn't going to get away with flat out refusing to debate.

From what I can tell, ducking debates rarely has any lasting consequences. More likely is that Wolf is just confident he can beat Corbett.

He would have taken an unnecessary brutal beating in the press. He's looking to become the first challenger to beat an incumbent Governor in PA history and let's remember, ads aside, he's not some entrenched figure. He didn't exactly have the most challenging nomination fight. The media will want a little more out of him. Plus, they hate boring elections. They're looking forward to these debates and will want there to be something that turns this race on its head. If Wolf denied them of the opportunity, you'd hear a lot more about it than the usual "So and so is ducking debates!"
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #914 on: September 22, 2014, 07:16:48 PM »

I'm watching on a delay so I'm only ten minutes in but I have to say that Wolf started off totally flat footed, said he didn't really care to talk statistics when it comes to education funding (uhhh...that's wildly inappropriate of him for several reasons) and vague. Corbett is clearly on the attack.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #915 on: September 22, 2014, 07:23:42 PM »

Why would have a debate during the season premieres of Big Bang Theory, The Voice, and Fox's new hit show Gotham?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #916 on: September 22, 2014, 07:28:16 PM »

Why would have a debate during the season premieres of Big Bang Theory, The Voice, and Fox's new hit show Gotham?

It's the annual PA Chamber of Commerce Dinner. This is a tradition here for debates. Tongue

This isn't the big Philly or Pittsburgh debate either. It's on our public cable networks (PCN and C-SPAN) so the audience obviously won't be anywhere near sizable. That said, even though I'm only halfway through, I think the narrative will change a bit in this race.
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angus
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« Reply #917 on: September 22, 2014, 07:34:03 PM »

I can't find it.  I have, like, 900 channels and it doesn't seem to be playing on any of them.  Phil, is any outlet going to replay it later tonight?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #918 on: September 22, 2014, 07:35:09 PM »

I can't find it.  I have, like, 900 channels and it doesn't seem to be playing on any of them.  Phil, is any outlet going to replay it later tonight?


It's on again tonight at 11 on PCN.
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angus
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« Reply #919 on: September 22, 2014, 07:58:30 PM »

Thank you Phil.  I have found their website.  I'll watch for it at 11. 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #920 on: September 22, 2014, 09:00:29 PM »

Thank you Phil.  I have found their website.  I'll watch for it at 11. 

It's also on C-Span if you want to watch it there: http://www.c-span.org/video/?321612-1/pennsylvania-governors-debate

Overall, the debate was pretty boring. Corbett was definitely better on specifics, whereas Wolf tended to be vague and speak in generalities. On the other hand, since it was a CoC debate, the questions and audience were very Republican friendly, so it was somewhat expected. They'd basically erupt into applause whenever Corbett farted, but when Wolf spoke you could almost hear the crickets. I'd probably give Corbett a slight win, but there was no major gaffe or game changer. Without something huge (like Mourdock's rape comment), non presidential debates tend to have little to have no impact. This sums it up pretty well:

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #921 on: September 22, 2014, 09:19:45 PM »

Yeah, overall, a clear Corbett win. He was aggressive and did well. Wolf was blatantly vague and those lines about statistics...well, you'll hear those again.

Now obviously this wasn't widely watched. The question is how much play does this get  from the media? There clearly wasn't some game changer or gaffe but this will be reported as a Corbett win and Wolf will get some knocks. At the very least, it raises the interest in the upcoming Philly and Pittsburgh debates. And while those obviously won't be viewed like Presidential debates, they will draw far more people than PCN on a Monday night especially after Corbett gave people something to watch tonight. Tongue
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KCDem
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« Reply #922 on: September 22, 2014, 10:02:33 PM »

It wouldn't matter if Wolf didn't respond to any of his debate questions. He's going to win, end of story.
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angus
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« Reply #923 on: September 23, 2014, 10:44:37 AM »

Watched most of it.  (The plug-in script crashed about 40 minutes in >[ )

Both candidates appeared to have good judgment and Corbett was more specific, especially when challenging Wolf's taxing and spending plans.  Taxes came up 14 minutes in and stayed for the remainder.  The moderator seemed to be keen on holding both of them over the flame.  

I have to agree with IceSpear's observation of crickets for Wolf, applause for Corbett's farts.  Wolf understood the venue and made light of it:  "I suppose that wasn't applause for me; that was applause for the question."  I also agree with Phil that Corbett seemed stronger, or at least more in command of facts (and slightly less evasive) than Wolf.

If the debates count, then Wolf might want to study up a little before the next one.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #924 on: September 23, 2014, 10:55:47 AM »

Wolf, although his performance was not bad, was vague on many issues, while Corbett was lot more accurate. I would say Gov. Corbett won the debate. His numbers might be improving, but not enough to win the election.
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