Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[free my dawg]

While we're speaking about that Harper Poll, here are the results concerning the state's most respected politicians.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect

Governor Tom Ridge - 24%
Governor Ed Rendell - 22%
Senator Rick Santorum - 21%
Governor Robert Casey Sr. - 18%
Senator Arlen Specter - 15%

Santorum doing that well and above Casey, Sr.? I'd love to believe it but...uh...

Also, Santorum beats Ridge among seniors but loses to Ridge among Republicans?

AFAIK this is just who they respect most proportionally, not a ranking system. Santorum is the only one out of these guys that isn't moderate, so I'm guessing most of his votes come from his base. If it was a ranking system I'm sure Casey would be higher.

[free my dawg]

Some speculation that Corbett might bow out after his first term.

Krazen, I think you should know because you are a republican, who could seek the republican nomination for the Pennsylvania governor if Corbett retires? Thanks

Among the Congressmen, Gerlach is one who already tried to run for governor. They would be best with a SWPA candidate against an abortion shop owner.

And your best candidate from SWPA for the primary foiled the Voter ID plan. Give me the abortion shop owner any day, at least she respects democracy.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, Cawley strikes me as the type to run if Corbett doesn't. I'm not sure if any Reps are running, but I think Gerlach is happy with his current job too. Phil, you know about anyone in the state house who might run?

I'm not betting on Turzai to beat Schwartz, considering he managed to royally screw up Voter ID and became the poster boy of the movement against it. Does he lack as much political savvy as I think he does?

[free my dawg]

Yeah, Voter ID isn't a losing issue for the GOP here. Whatever the case, I don't know where this talk about Turzai for Governor is coming from. He hasn't hinted at it and I highly doubt he'd do it.

Someone like Daryl Metcalfe - the firebrand far right wing State Representative from out west who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010 - might do it. He wouldn't win the primary and would still run for his House seat (as he did in 2010) but he does have a following. In a one-on-one with a total establishment type, he absolutely could make it interesting. The General with Metcalfe as the nominee would be...well...very good for one side and very bad for the other.

I got it from the Wikipedia page, so I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing.

Metcalfe sounds like a disaster for y'all though. Sounds more like Ted Cruz than Pat Toomey.

[free my dawg]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

[free my dawg]

That's just terrible

[free my dawg]

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

"sup" - Dan Lipinski

[free my dawg]

1948- Matthew Nealy (D) beat W. Chapman Revercomb (R) by 14 to become the Class 3 Senator from West Virginia
1954- Nealy reelected, beating Robert Sweeney (R) by nearly 20 again.. Nealy dies in 1958.
1958- John Hobitzell (R) was appointed to succeed him by a Republican governor, but he was beaten months after being sworn in by Jennings Randolph (D) by almost 20 points.
1960- Randolph re-elected, this time by 10.
1966- Randolph (D) re-elected again in a landslide. Almost 20.
1972- Randolph once again wins and breaks 20.
1978- Jennings Randolph (D) fends off a strong challenge from popular former governor Arch Moore (R), scraping by with one point.
1984- Jay Rockefeller (D) beats John Raese (R) by 5 points.
1990- Rockefeller reelected in an over 30-point landslide
1996- Rockefeller wins by more than 50
2002- Rockefeller (D) reelected Senator
2008- Rockefeller wins by over 25
2014- Because the Class 2 Senate seat from West Virginia has not elected a Democrat and has been a landslide since 1984, the Democrat will win in 2014 by a landslide.

See? I can cite random facts to back up things that won't happen too.

[free my dawg]

boo corbett yay hanger

[free my dawg]

probably PA, i just want to help corbett out the door and the democrats can hold on for a year

[free my dawg]

Well, I met John Hanger yesterday when he came to my college. I'd have to say I was pleased with what he had to say. Would highly recommend all the D-PAs here to listen to him, tell everyone you know about him, and to donate. He's got good grassroots ideas but needs the money.

[free my dawg]

Where are you hearing this, Phil?

[free my dawg]

The talk continues. There is supposedly already an effort to draft Toomey...

http://www.politicspa.com/gop-rumors-swirl-about-top-ticket-change/51795/

I'd imagine Meehan or Dent run for the GOP in this case. If Toomey comes in, of course it firmly leans Republican.

[free my dawg]

Toomey making a run for Governor means that Democrats could potentially pick up a Senate seat AND a Governorship. Which would be amazing.

I'd say it Tilts D solely due to Sestak's power as a candidate in 2016.

Toomey is going to be very hard to beat. Leans R, but much closer to Likely than Tilt.

[free my dawg]

And more importantly the fact that there's still a year left to buoy himself even in the slightest. It's a strong lean but there's still time.

[free my dawg]

We're talking about PA here, not home.

I don't think that the Senate or the House will flip in 2014. Slight chance of the Senate coming to Democrats (about 20%), but the House? No way in hell.

[free my dawg]

Isn't Paterno the pedophile coach?

No, the nonce is still alive. JoePa's just the guy who covered it up.

[free my dawg]

So much for all the talk about stepping aside.

[free my dawg]

Well, I got back a few hours ago from Mayor Gray's reelection party. The countdown to take down Corbett starts now.

[free my dawg]

For Corbett to perform better in the African American community in 2014, he's going to need between 16-25 percent of Blacks. In 2010, he only got 8 percent of the African American vote.

If I was Corbett, I'd follow Chris Christie's 2013 model and go into both African American and Latino communities like NOW.

Speaking of minority voting support, how much of the African American vote did then-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) get in 1994 and 1998 ?

Good question. Unfortunately, Tom Corbett isn't Tom Ridge or Chris Christie, so it's very unlikely.

Also, very good to see Hanger climbing up in the polls.

[free my dawg]

I mean, I'll reserve my judgment because I'm a big Hanger supporter, but I don't think that the issue of energy and his general liberalism would give him that much of a disadvantage compared to everyone else.

But who knows. This all might be wishful thinking.

[free my dawg]

State Senator Mike Waugh (R-York) is resigning. Special election coming soon.

obligatory D+1 post

[free my dawg]

Who is Tom Wolf? He just raised 13.27 million for Governor!

Businessman from York County, former secretary of the Department of Revenue. Rich as hell ~ $10 million of that is self-funded.

Seen him speak. Fairly dry, seems out of touch.

[free my dawg]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

[free my dawg]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Your deciding issue is marijuana. Really?

So is mine (normal college kid).