Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[publicunofficial]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

Either one could reconsider. Taking Corbett's place is a lot different than shoving Corbett aside. Though Fitzpatrick has said he doesn't want to be in politics forever (He's going to retire from the house in 2016 if I recall) and I doubt he'd take a run for Governor in any situation.

Out of the current reps, I'd bet Gerlach, Kelly and maybe Murphy & Barletta to take a shot.

[publicunofficial]

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

[publicunofficial]

http://www.politicspa.com/santorum-endorses-corbett/51144/

Rick Santorum states that he will "Absolutely" campaign on Corbett's behalf throughout the election.


R+1, Dems have no chance now.

[publicunofficial]

Toomey making a run for Governor means that Democrats could potentially pick up a Senate seat AND a Governorship. Which would be amazing.

[publicunofficial]

Democrats may have an interesting name for a run in PA-05 against Glenn Thompson



Jay Paterno, son of Joe

[publicunofficial]

Isn't Paterno the pedophile coach?

No, he's the "doesn't-report-pedophile-to-police" coach

[publicunofficial]

Rothenberg has moved the Gov race from Toss-Up to Lean D

Rothenberg, Cook, and Sabato now all agree that Corbett is pretty much toast. And knowing how pro-incumbent Rothenberg is this early in the election cycle, it really means something.

[publicunofficial]

Corbett will kick off his re-election campaign next week.

[publicunofficial]

Ed Pawlowski is dropping out of the D primary, endorsing McCord.

[publicunofficial]

A status update by Kathleen Kane on her review of the handling of the Sandusky case reveals that emails from Corbett's tenure as AG that were thought to have been deleted have been recovered.


I'm sure nothing incriminating will come out of this for Corbett.

[publicunofficial]

I'm still betting Corbett wins reelection

There's absolutely nothing no polls indicating he would be re-elected there has been no rebound in his approval rating months away from the election November I don't what your basing your assumptions on him winning on.

Let me save him the response:


"Yes but Pennsylvania usually re-elects their governors and I think he will beat Schwartz easily."

[publicunofficial]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

BOLD PREDICTION: CORBETT WILL CAMPAIGN FOR OFFICE.


SAFE R

[publicunofficial]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

Yeah, the case seems pretty week. I don't think you need to bribe Democrats to vote against Voter I.D.

[publicunofficial]

lol J.J.

[publicunofficial]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

[publicunofficial]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

[publicunofficial]

Schwartz has finally got her first ad out, talking about her role in creating CHIP while serving in the State Senate


McCord also has a new ad out, citing his bona-fides when it comes to taking on Corbett

[publicunofficial]

Now it is the Washington Post talking about Kane:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/09/read-in-wednesday-april-9-2014-secret-service-supervisor-demoted-hope-for-ui-in-the-house-mcallister-will-seek-fbi-probe/

Kane took what could have been a 2-3 day story, and transformed it into a major scandal.

One paragraph on an online blog post in the WaPo does not a major scandal make. This whole thing still feels like it's something only hacks care about.

[publicunofficial]

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up.

Even when she was the "frontrunner", she was polling in the 20s. I wouldn't really call that wrapped up.

Her favored status was never really evidenced in polling, sure, but that's because was a frontrunner during the pre-primary period. It was more of a conventional wisdom thing. I guess that could lead to a debate over whether or not someone like that can ever be considered a real frontrunner.

I think she was considered the front-runner only because she was the only name people outside of Pennsylvania (Read: the beltway media) recognized.

[publicunofficial]

Meh, we have Sestak.

I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.

lol

[publicunofficial]

Meh, we have Sestak.

I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.

lol

Because you've been so right so far on things related to Kane!

I've said it's not a big deal so yeah I've got a pretty good track record.

[publicunofficial]

I may just be doing this to make JJ and KP mad. Trying to outhack the hacks.

Possibly.

[publicunofficial]

I think we're at the point in PA where voters are willing to overlook the flaws of Corbett's opponent in order to throw him out. He's deeply disliked and very unpopular and the voters are ready to get rid of him unless one of the Dem nominees has a criminal background or something I'm not seeing how one of them could allow for Corbett to be re-elected.

I spent most of the 2010 cycle calling him "Tom Corbett, Space Cadet," so I am not exactly a fan. 

One of the great problems is Kane.  We elected her, in spite of her flaws, and we have Kanegate.  People just have to look at her and ask, do we want to do that again?  It is more prevalent with Schwartz, as both are flaming liberal women, but it is still there with the other candidates.

(And Kane is suppose to be investigating the Sandusky investigation, but it has taken her half as long, so far, as the AG's investigation.)

I easily would have voted for Wagner over Corbett in 2010, but not a more liberal Onorato.

I think Kanegate has much broader implications than that JJ. Surely voters all across the nation are asking themselves "What's the difference between Kane and any other Democrat?" and aren't coming up with any answers. I expect a full R wave in even the most liberal areas, followed shortly thereafter by the complete collapse of the Democratic Party.

[publicunofficial]

Corbett breaking out the loserspeak early.

[publicunofficial]

Change this race to Safe R