Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

I think you are aware that I am not a fan of Corbett.  Consider that when I post.

1.  Corbett just had a fairly major victory on transportation funding, including an increase in the speed limit to 70 MPH on some Interstates.  That tends to be popular outside SEPA.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/70_mph_speed_limits_coming_to.html  PA conservatives like fast driving and cheap liquor.     If the State Stores were sold, he'd win in a landslide.

There could be some legislative victories that strengthen him.

2.  The "Kane investigation" on Sandusky will go no place.  Corbett was accused of dragging his feet.  His "alibi" is that they didn't know about the other victims until October 2010.  It came from a tipster to the Centre County DA, Parks Miller.   Parks Miller is a fairly liberal Democrat, female, and a Kane supporter.  She first ran in 2009, and Corbett supported her opponent.  She has zero reasons to cover up for Corbett.  I think they can show that he didn't know about the second and subsequent victims until late 2010.  Some of the Sandusky investigation/PSU complaints will collapse.

Also, the trials should be over; I expect convictions, though Spanier could escape. 

Sandusky will have a lesser impact than it does now.

3.  Fracking is receding as an issue.  Schwartz wants to tax it, not ban it.  http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/09/05/top-corbett-challenger-puts-cards-table-tax-fracking/  Corbett can be seen as being on the right side of history on this issue.  Even more than Sandusky, this could have damaged him.

Fracking is a moderate plus for Corbett.

4.  Corbett does slightly better in the African American community that the average Republican.  He has been known to fire senior staffers for even minor comments.  It more than just having a black grandson.

There will be slight erosion of the Democratic base.

I wouldn't proclaim him the winner in 2014 just yet, but I think he will be strengthening going into the election.

[J. J.]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

[J. J.]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

[J. J.]

One of Corbett's major problems is that he has not accomplished much.

[J. J.]

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

Governors are very powerful in Pennsylvania and the Governor is the de facto head of his or her party in almost all states. Should tell you what you need to know.

Another factor is that it takes a huge amount of money to run in PA.  I would question if these guys have the war chest to run.

[J. J.]

Wolf is running some very good, "get to know him," ads on television, with his telegenic daughters.  I thought they were good ads.

[J. J.]

A status update by Kathleen Kane on her review of the handling of the Sandusky case reveals that emails from Corbett's tenure as AG that were thought to have been deleted have been recovered.


I'm sure nothing incriminating will come out of this for Corbett.

It undermines the "Corbett slow walked it" argument a bit, but not entirely.

One problem is that Corbett has said, publicly, that they got the first tip that Sandusky was doing stuff on campus because of a tip sent to the Centre County DA in October 2010.

The DA there is elected, and she is a Democrat, first elected in November 2009.  Corbett endorsed her opponent in 2009, who was the incumbent.  She was re-elected, unopposed, in 2013, got both party nominations, and won by the largest margin of any candidate for that office since at least 1981, including one that also ran unopposed.  If she backs that up, there is no "slow walking" question.

[J. J.]

Three things: McCord is posting a hugely misleading graphic with these results and the headline "McCORD WINS!" McGinty coming in behind Hanger is pretty sad. Finally, Wolf is undoubtedly getting traction.

I think it will be McCord or Wolf, at this point.  Wolf is running commercials on broadcast TV in Phila in the daylight.

[J. J.]

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

Who does command a following in the "T," where the last Lt. Gov democratic nominee was from.  It complicates the race.

[J. J.]

Wolf - 36%
Schwartz (next closest) - 9%

Jack Wagner has not been mentioned in polling yet.

http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-wolf-36-schwartz-9/55506/

Just about to post this.  It is the ads.  They are good and he is running a lot of them.  Wagner was not in the mix, however.

[J. J.]

Paterno, with a 1 point lead in Lt. Gov. race: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/jay_paterno_tops_2014_lt_gov_d.html#incart_river_default

48% undecided.

[J. J.]

Paterno, with a 1 point lead in Lt. Gov. race: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/jay_paterno_tops_2014_lt_gov_d.html#incart_river_default

48% undecided.

Seriously? I don't get how the Paternos still have such a following.

1% of the adults in PA went to Penn State.  The Paterno name is extremely well known.  Critz (sp.) is one point behind him, so it necessarily a massively strong showing.

[J. J.]

Paterno, with a 1 point lead in Lt. Gov. race: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/jay_paterno_tops_2014_lt_gov_d.html#incart_river_default

48% undecided.

Seriously? I don't get how the Paternos still have such a following.

1% of the adults in PA went to Penn State.  The Paterno name is extremely well known.  Critz (sp.) is one point behind him, so it necessarily a massively strong showing.

Including myself.

Personally, he's never done anything in his entire political career... so...

The probability that I will be voting for him is slim.

I can't vote in the D primary, but Paterno on the ticket would make me more likely to vote for Corbett.

[J. J.]

Paterno, with a 1 point lead in Lt. Gov. race: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/jay_paterno_tops_2014_lt_gov_d.html#incart_river_default

48% undecided.

Seriously? I don't get how the Paternos still have such a following.

1% of the adults in PA went to Penn State.  The Paterno name is extremely well known.  Critz (sp.) is one point behind him, so it necessarily a massively strong showing.

Including myself.

Personally, he's never done anything in his entire political career... so...

The probability that I will be voting for him is slim.

I can't vote in the D primary, but Paterno on the ticket would make me more likely to vote for Corbett.

No dice; I don't care who they put on the ticket, I can't vote Corbett.

The problem is, while I am not a big Corbett fan, the Democrats could do worse, and usually do.

[J. J.]

Deadline day was Tuesday. Seven Dems filed: Wolf, Wagner, McCord, Schwartz, McGinty and Hanger. Bob Guzzardi filed on the GOP side. Everything we expected. 

For Lt. Governor: Mark Smith, Brandon Neuman, Mike Stack, Jay Paterno, Brad Koplinski and Mark Critz.

CD13: Bill Clinton to stump for Margolies next month.

We do have a PA 13 thread, you know...

Hanger just pulled out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/john_hanger_withdraws_from_cam.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Next question is, how many signatures did Guzzardi get on his nominating petition?  Will Corbett challenge?  The last I heard was 2,600 (2,500, with 100 from ten different counties was needed).

[J. J.]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Renomination, yes, but not reelection.  Today, I'd say it will be a Democratic gain.

[J. J.]

Jay Paterno's nominating petitions are being challenged:  http://www.centredaily.com/2014/03/15/4085857/rival-questions-jay-paternos-nominating.html

[J. J.]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

[J. J.]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

Has it? It seems pretty consistent that whichever Democrat is ahead in the primary is beating Corbett by double digits (Schwartz before, Wolf now).

Yes, it has.  He is off his lows.

[J. J.]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

[J. J.]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

[J. J.]

McCord is entering the air war:  http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/on_the_road_in_the_lehigh_vall.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[J. J.]

Won't be a factor by the time she runs statewide.

It may be a factor in this one.  Except for Williams, it is damaging the brand, and it is making Corbett look nonpartisan (which is more than he did in the last 9 years). 

She is suppose to do an "investigation of the investigation" of the Penn State Scandal, and this will make whatever the result is completely worthless.

The scandal is growing daily and Kane is almost to the point of no return.  When an AG shows up at the Inquirer offices with two lawyers and says that on the advice of counsel, she won't answer any questions, it is very bad (and largely self inflicted).

 

[J. J.]

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.