Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[TX Conservative Dem]

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania Democrats need to get their act together by forcing the other candidates to DROP OUT and unite behind 1 candidate (Schwartz) considering that Pennsylvania has never elected a female governor ever.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Looking at Pennsylvania's historical trends on the Keystone State Governors:

1974-Milton Shapp (D) reelected governor
1978-Dick Thornburgh (R) elected
1982-Thornburgh reelected
1986-State Auditor General Bob Casey, Sr., elected governor
1990-Casey Sr., reelected
1994-U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge (R-PA) elected governor in GOP Revolution landslide
1998-Ridge reelected
2002-Former Philly Mayor Ed Rendell (D) elected to the governorship
2006-Rendell reelected easily
2010-State AG Tom Corbett (R) elected to the governorship
2014-???

Corbett has 3 statewide election victories in his belt

[TX Conservative Dem]

Tennessee also has the similar trend in reelecting their governors as well:
1978-Lamar Alexander (R) elected governor
1982-Alexander reelected
1986-Ned McWhether (D) elected to the governorship
1990-McWhether reelected
1994-Don Sundquist (R) elected, defeating then-Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen (D)
1998-Sundquist reelected overwhelmingly
2002-Bredsen (D) elected to the governorship.
2006-Bredesen reelected
2010-Bill Haslam (R) elected
2014-Haslam likely reelected
2018-??

[TX Conservative Dem]

Knowing Corbett, he's likely to go ahead with the reelection bid.

The Dem primary could get nasty, which would benefit Corbett in the general.

[TX Conservative Dem]

McCord running for Governor ?

I believe a crowded Democratic primary would get nasty and possibly help the GOPers like Corbett (if he isn't pushed out).

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett does have a big EGO, he'll still run for reelection despite folks pressuring him to pull a David Palmer and bow out of the 2014 governor's race.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Like I said before, I'm NOT counting out Corbett in 2014.

We've seen several other state governors survive horrible first terms before (Lawton Chiles, Pete Wilson, etc.,)

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett will tell the experts and pollsters to SHOVE IT: I'm seeking reelection and going to win.

Do NOT count out Corbett.

[TX Conservative Dem]

For Corbett to perform better in the African American community in 2014, he's going to need between 16-25 percent of Blacks. In 2010, he only got 8 percent of the African American vote.

If I was Corbett, I'd follow Chris Christie's 2013 model and go into both African American and Latino communities like NOW.

Speaking of minority voting support, how much of the African American vote did then-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) get in 1994 and 1998 ?

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm still betting Corbett wins reelection

[TX Conservative Dem]

McCord's been twice elected statewide as Pennsylvania State Treasurer, I'm betting he wins the Democratic nomination for the governorship in May.

On the other hand, Corbett is hoping the Dems pick Schwartz or some left-winger, so he can beat the snot out of them in November.

[TX Conservative Dem]

You know Corbett is praying that Schwartz is the Democratic nominee, because he will tie her to the unpopular President Obama.

I still believe Corbett has a good shot of reelection if McCord isn't the nominee

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

[TX Conservative Dem]

Hemster, I've been trying to tell folks that.

Corbett should look at these examples of how governors were considered toast in their respective elections, but won reelection:

Lawton Chiles of Florida and Pete Wilson of California, both in 1994: both had horrible first terms and dreadful approval ratings, but managed to win reelection: Chiles won with the "Old He-Coon" comment directed at Jeb during one of their debates and Wilson won by good old fashioned race-baiting over Prop. 187 and abolishing racial preferences.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Paterno won't get the LG nod

[TX Conservative Dem]

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Just heard about former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D)'s son committing suicide.

Very awful.

[TX Conservative Dem]

What about the Legislature?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Will Kane seek reelection as Pennsylvania State AG in 2016 ?

[TX Conservative Dem]

It means Corbett is coming baaack from the political dead.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If that happens on the winner of the Democratic primary being damaged, Corbett still has a good chance of winning reelection.

[TX Conservative Dem]

What's the latest on new polling between Corbett-Wolf matchup ?