Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[IceSpear]

Ouch.

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Wow...so his overall approval will be in the 20s? Not that Corbett being toxic is news or anything, but I never expected him to drop THAT low.

[IceSpear]

Only down 15-20 points? Looks like a toss up to me because PA is a "swing state".

Said every news outlet ever.

[IceSpear]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

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[IceSpear]

It would be hilarious if Corbett lost the primary to a some dude.

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

Ok, maybe you're still not getting the difference a) between starting an abortion clinic and possibly recommending women to Kermit Gosnell and voting against a partial birth ban and b) the importance of abortion in state elections compared to Presidential elections. And no one said Obama's State Senate vote on that or any other issue was going to trigger a landslide loss for him. Tone down the hyperbole and stop comparing apples and oranges.

That's the thing, only single issue voter pro-life zealots care if someone started an abortion clinic. None of those people were voting Democrat to begin with. As for the Kermit Gosnell thing, it's merely speculation. But even if it does turn out to be true, how exactly is that Schwartz's fault? If you saw your PCP and they referred you to an oncologist who was secretly insane and murdered you during one of your examinations, would you blame your PCP for that?

[IceSpear]

Corbett approval up to 36% in latest Quinnipiac poll. Trails all Dems except Hanger. Trails Schwartz by eight and McCord by three.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991

Corbett also announced his support for legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

Why would he lead Hanger but trail everyone else? Odd.

[IceSpear]

Hanger is unknown and probably the furthest left of the bunch. It makes plenty of sense.

McGinty and Wolf are also unknown. I doubt enough people are paying attention to unknown Democratic primary candidate ideologies to account for a 12 point difference.

[IceSpear]

McGinty probably benefits as a female candidate and Wolf might already be spending some of his millions with minor advertising. While I totally agree that it's way too early for the general public to know about these lesser known candidates' ideologies, you'll have to at least concede that Hanger must be lesser known than McGinty and Wolf. "Corbett can't possibly be leading any opponent. The poll must be flawed" isn't a good argument.

This is from the latest PPP poll which shows their name recognition:

Wolf:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 16%
Not sure 75%

Hanger:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 17%
Not sure 74%

[IceSpear]

Ok so aside from saying they're equally unknown, I don't get your point. Are you arguing that the poll must be flawed because you don't like that Corbett is leading anyone or what?

My point is how it makes no sense that one unknown performs 12 points better than another unknown. That's the kind of difference you'd expect from a strong candidate vs. an unknown, or an unknown vs. a particularly weak/scandal plagued candidate. I couldn't care less if Corbett is leading him since he won't be the nominee anyway.

[IceSpear]

It makes no sense, in your opinion, so...what? The poll is wrong?

It makes no sense to anyone with more than two brain cells. You have yet to explain how it's possible that people with virtually identical name recognition and favorability ratings could perform at such drastically different levels against the same opponent.

And no, I'm not saying the poll is wrong. Just that that particular data point is out of place. If Corbett is really leading Hanger by 5 you'd expect his margin against the other unknowns to be relatively similar, not a 12 point difference. Or vice versa if Wolf is really leading Corbett by 7.

[IceSpear]

Actually, there's a perfect explanation for it: people that know Hanger don't like his views. Now I conceded the point that Hanger or anyone outside of Schwartz probably doesn't have a known ideology amongst the general electorate but there is an explanation for why Hanger would poll worse against Corbett. Work those three brain cells that you have a little harder.

Again, their favorability ratings are virtually identical, as I posted above.

Funnily enough, in PPP's poll, Wolf does 7 points worse than Hanger. In Quinnipiac's poll Wolf does 12 points better than Hanger, a 19 point difference. Clearly one or both of these polls are way off.

[IceSpear]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

[IceSpear]

It's not like that would ever get through the assembly anyway. I doubt it would even get through a Democratic controlled one, considering the overall meekness of PA Dems in general.

[IceSpear]

It's not like that would ever get through the assembly anyway. I doubt it would even get through a Democratic controlled one, considering the overall meekness of PA Dems in general.

That's true.  Still he's well qualified and Allyson Schwartz has actually been a bit of a corporate sellout in some respects. 

In what ways? I'm still open to changing my vote, so I'd like to hear it.

[IceSpear]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Corbett thanks you.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

So you're voting for a guy you think is unelectable?

[IceSpear]

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Corbett thanks you.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

So you're voting for a guy you think is unelectable?

He's not unelectable by any means - his positions on energy would turn people off from voting for him than pot. However, I'm just stating facts - progressives seem to be coalescing around McGinty, and despite Hanger's grassroots efforts, he's still in fourth place. He's not likely to get past the primary.

So the 1% was his chances of winning both the primary and the GE? I thought you meant he had 1% chance of beating Corbett if he was already the nominee.

[IceSpear]

To be honest, Hanger and Corbett would be a toss-up in the GE because of his stances on energy (along with a few more issues), but I'm voting for him in case that 1% happens. I like to think idealistically, but the man himself basically said that to have a chance at victory he'd poll at 15% of the vote by December, and the most he got was 7%. He'd have a chance in the general, but as far as the primary goes, he's hanging on by a thread.

Marijuana will not win alone here.

Yeah, I'm not too keen on supporting Hanger since he'd likely be the weakest possible nominee and I really want Corbett gone. What do you think about McCord and McGinty?

[IceSpear]

Only 23% think Corbett deserves re-election

Also shows 56-39 support for gay marriage, 58-36 against marijuana legalization.

[IceSpear]

Will the primary really be that bloody? It's a little over 3 months from now. It's not like it's one of those states where the primary is in August or September.

[IceSpear]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

[IceSpear]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

[IceSpear]

So if the abortion issue wasn't strong enough to take precedence over a "Democratic wave" and the "economy collapsing", why would it take precedence over Corbett's disastrous tenure as governor?

A total of 54 percent of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases while 37 percent say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Among Democrats:
33% Legal in all cases, 35% Legal in most cases, 14% Illegal in most cases, 9% Illegal in all cases

Among Republicans:
12% Legal in all cases, 19% Legal in most cases, 39% Illegal in most cases, 25% Illegal in all cases

So pro-choice Republicans actually outnumber pro-life Democrats in this socially conservative bastion of Pennsylvania. Independents are also solidly pro-choice.

It isn't the 80s or the 90s anymore.

[IceSpear]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.