Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Badger]

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

Wouldn't win a primary. I'm not even sure he's interested in running for office again. I could be totally off on that but his name isn't typically floated by the usual suspects.

Wonder if he'll run against Rothfus again. He would've likely won if he were the nominee.

[Badger]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

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...except people have been saying that about Corbett for at least a year now so...

Well, Corbett's been politically toxic for at least a year now.

[Badger]

There's a significant segment that has been critiquing him for at least that period of time and weren't simply saying he wasn't conservative enough as a talking point. They're really battled him on a number of issues before the legislature. Also keep in mind that a third of Republicans didn't vote for him in the 2010 primary.

Fair enough, but not being conservative enough is hardly why he's currently less popular than headlice, or why his re-election chances are so slim.

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

So what gives? Is it truly a case of "the devil you know" mentality dominating the PA GOP here?

[Badger]

So what % would you guess Guzzardi will likely get, Phil?

Any chance you'll vote for him?

[Badger]

Yeah, I don't see the primary being too damaging to the eventual nominee, especially since IIRC this is the Democrats' #1 target this cycle, so the short on cash thing won't last.

There you have it, boys. NEW! Forum conventional wisdom: Corbett can get used to four more years in the mansion.

Um, not sure why the criticism. Is Snowstalker wrong somehow?

[Badger]

State House Speaker Sam Smith is retiring after 27 years in the House and two terms as Speaker. He was facing a more conservative primary challenger. He barely beat his unknown primary challenger in a shocker back in 2012.

Well, his avoiding a humiliating primary loss helps delay the PA GOP totally jumping the shark by a couple years at least, so.....

[Badger]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

[Badger]

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist.  

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

The former, obviously.

That said, even taking JJ's breathless pearl-clutching with a grain of salt, the added factor of the Philly DA blasting her and arriving at an editorial board meeting essentially just to plead the Fifth!?!

This may have legs after all. Mind you, it's a long way to say how it'll affect her in 2 years running either for re-election or against Toomey. And an even bigger jump yet to say even in the best case scenario for Republicans that this will actually sway more than a thousand votes statewide for Corbett in November (especially if he faces a relative outsider like Wolf).

[Badger]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

Oh please. Wagner would've gotten trounced just as badly if not worse than Onorato did. The guy is a perpetual loser.

No. No, I really doubt that.

And what's this comment about Wagner being the Raese of PA? You guys do realize he has held several offices and romped to victory in statewide races before, too, right?

Not to mention, unlike Raese, Wagner isn't an utter and perpetual ass.

[Badger]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

I have not said anything about Corbett's weakness, only the weakness of your statements.

Wagner was probably the strongest candidate in the General.  It does mean that Corbett won't lose, but the likelihood that he will just went down.  A lot of Corbett's political problems are going away, ironically with no effort from Corbett.

JJ logic: 2 + 2 = 22.

[Badger]

F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.

That 3 points is easily MoE averaged between two polls. The point is his nearest competitor is 26 points behind and in single digits. Plus he should have plenty of money to match or outdo his opponents' ad campaigns when they finally hit the airwaves.

For one of the pack to over take Wolf at this point is probably going to take a scandal, megagaffe(s), or a negative campaign of unsurpassed effectiveness.

[Badger]

Having major institutional support still means more in PA than having a boatload of money, in my opinion. So I'm still not sold on Wolf having this locked up. Let's see if Wolf is able to win over that establishment support with the big bucks and feeling of inevitability. Still almost two months to go for almost anything to happen...except McGinty surging ahead. I see her stuck in fourth for good.

Agreed. And if these numbers don't change notably in the next few weeks, at that point the dam of uncommitted establishment support will likely start cracking fast. A bloody primary is one of the few things that MIGHT give Corbett a chance, and the party bigwigs know it. A consensus choice of the establishment is their best case scenario.

[Badger]

So anything new on Kane's scandal, or has that died down some?

[Badger]

The underlying issue is still well in the news as well:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/pa_lawmakers_call_for_fuller_d.html#incart_m-rpt-1

The very Democratic leaning State College Centre Daily Times, which endorsed her, and didn't cover the story for two weeks (at least on-line) came out with a blistering editorial on that and the "investigation of the investigation." 

According to Wikipedia, the major good government group, "The Committee of Seventy," has called for a special prosecutor to investigate Kane.

From it's own Wiki leak, the Committee of Seventy seems like an upright non-partisan group. But lordy that is an Orwellian sounding name.

[Badger]

Oh, I agree the loan attack is weak but I think there's more where that came from. Of course, if there isn't, you know I'll obviously enjoy watching Schwartz hilariously fail in a primary she was supposed to have wrapped up.

Why do you seem to specifically hate her?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4547.0

[Badger]

Meh, we have Sestak.

I would add the first group was not actually targeted.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/legislative_stings_first_suspe.html#incart_river_default

This could have an effect on the governor's race.  It rallies the Republicans.

lol

Because you've been so right so far on things related to Kane!

I've said it's not a big deal so yeah I've got a pretty good track record.

Ok except everything here proves you wrong and not a single person backed you up that it isn't a big deal.

<Raises hand>

For Kane herself, big deal. A possible chance to recover and stay in office in two years IF it doesn't get much worse or prolonged, but at very least in regards her running against Toomey--baring some independent investigation broadly, unconditionally, and LOUDLY exonerating her--she's already been "Christieized".

For the governor's race, however--meh. Even moreso if "outsider" Wolf is the nominee as expected, but not much worse even if it's Schwartz or McCord.

I'll say it again: At present it seems this realistically won't change more than about a thousand votes statewide come November. In trying to tar Wolf and other Democrats with Kane's woes, Corbett backers are grasping at straws here because---well, what else have they got? This is VERY much a Kathleen Kane problem, not a Democrat problem. And the type of Republican "rallied" enough by Kane's scandal to turn out and vote for Corbett because "CORRUPT DEMOCRATS!!" was 99% likely to vote anyway.

But don't stop believing, JJ.

[Badger]

If you don't think it's a big thing for the Gubernatorial race, fine. But AngryGreatness was talking about how this whole Kane saga is basically a non-story that only GOP hacks care about. He said that before J.J. even mentioned Corbett seriously benefitting from this (though maybe J.J. said that another time as well). Whatever the case, certain Dems here were dismissing this as nothing. That's so very far from reality but you know that and admitted that in your post. I think we're on or close to the same page on this.

So you typed all that just to say "I agree"?

I skimmed AG's prior posts and don't see where he specifically said that it's not a big deal for Kane, but again I just skimmed and could be wrong. His last post you responded to seems to say it's not a big deal for the gov race; not necessarily about Kane. It appears to have been in response to JJ's characteristically breathless hype that this is somehow a game changer for Corbett.

Of course I'm no mindreader either.

[Badger]

It means Corbett is coming baaack from the political dead. diddly-squat.

[Badger]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

"Kathleen Kane" =/= "others".

About the only thing this has proven JJ, is that Corbett might be able to make a political comeback in 2016 by running against Kane (assuming he could get the GOP nom).

[Badger]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

"Kathleen Kane" =/= "others".

About the only thing this has proven JJ, is that Corbett might be able to make a political comeback in 2016 by running against Kane (assuming he could get the GOP nom).

Kane basically won the AG's race by running against Corbett in 2012, even though Corbett was Governor at the time. 

The problem is, for Schwartz at least, is that:

1.  She is another liberal Democratic woman.

2.  Her themes, the old boy network, were Kane's themes.

Wolf does not have quite the same problem, though it still creates a problem.

In other news, Corbett is making heavy TV buys.  Fairly positive (and lacking details), and he does look grandfatherly.

 

One can run for a lower office by campaigning against someone who holds a higher seat. Such as any GOP congressional candidate essentially running against Obama, or Kane running for AG by campaigning against Governor Corbett.

But one can't really reverse that dynamic. Obama can run against "Congressional Republicans", and by direct extension John Boehner and Mitch McConnell because they are the clear leaders of the GOP delegations. Obama can't really run against Louis Gohmert, Steve King, Renee Elmers, etc. though.

Kane is NOWHERE near the leader of PA Dems as McConnell and Boehner are for the GOP in Congress. Nor does Kanegate appear to have diddly-squat to do with any Democrat other than herself or the Party in general. Boehner and McConnell's "obstructionism", "lack of alternative to Obamacare", and other policy positions clearly apply to all (or 99%) of Republican congressional candidates, though.

The comparisons of Schwartz to Kane by virture of gender, ideology, and general "old boys pols club" has a grain of truth to it; but let's get real, JJ. Those "connections" at most raise Kanegate's effect on the gov race to "nominal at best", up from "essentially non-existent" if Wolf in the nominee.

But it just dawned on me; absolutely nothing I or anyone else says is going to sway you from thinking Kanegate "could" realistically present an opening for Corbett, is it?

[Badger]

Thanks for confirming my speculation JJ. I'm off to bash my head on the keyboard now.


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There. All better now.

[Badger]

All I'm going to say is I heard from a friend that big news is set to come down from Harrisburg.

Is Corbett resigning?

Or Kane? Or is she getting charged? Don't be coy, boy.

[Badger]

We can now report that President Obama, Vice-President Biden, and every other Democratic elected official in the country have flown to Harrisburg to announce their resignation and permanent retirement from politics.  One top Democratic strategist who wished to remain anonymous said that "after the Kane scandal, everyone just collectively decided to call it a day.  I mean, given that it was basically the biggest scandal in American history and its unprecedented importance to voters throughout the country, we all sort of went 'why even bother anymore?'''  The Democratic Party is expected to wait until Friday to formally dissolve in order to give Pennsylvania Democrats time to replace their platform with a resolution declaring that Tom Corbett shall henceforth be known as "Eternal Governor and Savior of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania."  

Though I doubt if it is serious at this point, they are considering Kane's impeachment.

Who is "they"?

[Badger]

Any recent polls on the primary? It'd be interesting to see if any of the attacks are materially hurting Wolf, and/or if any of his competitors are gaining any traction.

[Badger]

Corbett hoping for a Gray Davis-esque comeback: he should start running TV Ads, attacking the strongest Democrat he fears most and hope that they nominate the weakest Dem nominee for the governorship.

Of course, Corbett will run as the Anti-Fed, Anti-Obama, States Rights candidate.

Which in a governor's race in a (non-Atlas) blue state, won't do him much good. Which is why he likely won't adopt such a stupid strategy.