Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

With the 2012 cycle behind us, it's time to start focusing on what is looking like (for now, at least) an uphill battle for Governor Corbett.

He's ending 2012 with dismal ratings (PPP has his approval in the mid 30s). To add insult to injury, Corbett isn't exactly loved by the base because of his involvement in some party matters. The real potential problem/wild card is newly elected Attorney General Kathleen Kane. She is the first Democrat to hold the office and campaigned on investigating the Sandusky scandal even further. Since Corbett was Attorney General from 2005-2011, questions are being asked as to why more wasn't done on his watch.

Will Kane go after him? Will he bother to run for re-election? If he does, will he lose the primary? The buzz in Republican circles isn't about whether or not he'll get a challenge but who will do it and how serious will it be? Businessman Scott Wagner is all but officially in the race. Will a bigger name step forward? If Corbett survives all of this, will he still be able to survive his re-election battle? Several big name Dems - former Congressman Sestak, State Treasurer Rob McCord, Auditor General Jack Wagner, Senator Casey (some think he will take the plunge in two years instead of waiting for the safer bet in 2018) - are considering a bid but will they be strong enough to break the eight year pattern?

Stay tuned. This one will be interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

[Keystone Phil]

The paradox for Bob Casey and why he might go now, rather than later is the risk that some other Democrat were to nab Corbett now. If that happened, 2018 goes from being the safe play to the nonexistant play. The weaker Corbett looks, the more likely Casey runs now rather than later.

Well, yes, but for someone as cautious as Casey, the eight year pattern looms large. He won't lose a job by running in 2014 but if he loses the General (or even the primary!) then that's two defeats in Gubernatorial races. That would seriously weaken him.

[Keystone Phil]

Wagner is certainly the safest bet but he'd have the primary problem.

The reason why I don't take Sestak too seriously is because he just doesn't come across as an executive. That and because I see him as more of a federal issues kind of politician (exactly why I've always laughed off Schwartz running for Governor).

[Keystone Phil]

The Wikipedia page has Josh Shapiro up there. He's a little too young imo and not very well known yet, but I actually watched an Eagles game with him. Cool guy.

He won't do it in 2014. Maybe 2018 as a Casey primary challenger. The base loves him but he's another one that doesn't rock the boat. If, for whatever reason, Casey doesn't run in 2018, look for Shapiro to run. He's most likely to take on Toomey in 2016 though. That should be a good race.

[Keystone Phil]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

You have to remember that the 2014 Senate cycle is the same one that was up in 2010, when Republicans pretty much won every seat they possibly could.  They have at least one really vulnerable seat in heavily Democratic Lower Bucks that should clearly be in Democratic hands.  At least one other SEPA Republican seat has got to be in danger. 

1) That seat isn't heavily Democratic.

2) It isn't going anywhere as long as Tomlinson runs for re-election so, no, it isn't in danger. Not to sound hostile but don't say something should "clearly" belong to one party when you don't have a clue about other factors in the race.

2014 could be Tomlinson's last race. When he goes, yes, I'll admit it will be tough to hold but we aren't at that point.

[Keystone Phil]

How's that mayor of Allentown doing?

He's been floated as a potential candidate. Don't know much about him but he could emerge as a dark horse.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok no offense but it doesn't necessarily work that way. You're thinking national results translate into easy wins at a more local level. That isn't the case there. Yes, the Dems have made serious inroads especially in lower Bucks (Bensalem, the township right across the street from me, is a classic example thanks to an increased minority presence) but the Bucks GOP is very strong at the state and local level. Again, when Tomlinson goes, it will certainly be competitive and probably Dem favored but it isn't a slam dunk. As long as Tommy is there, it's fine for us.

[Keystone Phil]

New Quinnipiac poll out today: Corbett approval at 40%, disapproval at 38%. I expected it to be a little worse.

[Keystone Phil]

She'd be seriously overplaying her hand if she ran in 2014. She did so well this year because of her high profile primary win over a well known opponent (Pat Murphy) while our nominee (a really great, extremelly qualified guy) was unknown thanks, in part, to the lack of a primary. Hell, she even had Bill Clinton come in to campaign for her. That was an "up yours" to Murphy. The Clinton's helped him big time in 2006 only to have Murphy turn around and be one of Obama's biggest cheerleaders two years later. The Clinton's were pretty bitter. Shocker, right? Anyway, Kane had a lot of cash through her primary and into November to hit the air while Freed had one ad towards the very end. It was a very one-sided race so don't think that that result is necessarily indicative of how Kane would do in other races.

[Keystone Phil]

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

Wouldn't win a primary. I'm not even sure he's interested in running for office again. I could be totally off on that but his name isn't typically floated by the usual suspects.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett draws his first opponent: former Secretary of Environmental Protection John Hanger.

The annual Pennsylvania Society gathering in NYC is in two weeks. I'll be sure to report on the rumors that will undoubtably be swirling.

[Keystone Phil]

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems.

I was actually working in District 39 until they transferred me to the longshot race up in District 5 in Erie County.

Ouch. I bet they wish they had those additional people in the 39th!

[Keystone Phil]

PoliticsPA reports that Jason Altmire is not only taking a cushy job but he's leaving the state: he will serve as Senior VP of the Florida chapter of Blue Cross Blue Shield.

[Keystone Phil]

I had a feeling he'd float this again and having this come out right before PA Society was done on propose - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-castor-mulling-primary-challenge-to-corbett/44677/


For those that don't know, Castor and Corbett have history. Their Attorney General primary in 2004 was especially nasty. Corbett (running as the establishment favorite) won with 53% to Castor's (running as the outsider just like Toomey at the same time) 47%. Castor was the Montco DA at the time. He is now in his second term as a County Commissioner.

[Keystone Phil]

“Right now I’m lining up donors, strategists, and grassroots organizers,” he said today, “and today’s announcement will enable me to gauge the support I might have for a run.” - Castor

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, Schwartz has been rumored for years though I've never bought it. She's more of a legislative type and federal issues seem to be her thing (even though she spent fourteen years in the State Senate). That said, if she isn't looking to become a major leader in the House then she might do this. She's going to be too old for the Senate in 2016 and 2018.

Speaking of Schwartz for Governor, the big buzz was about her last night at Pennsylvania Society. I actually had a brief "hello" moment with her. I had a few minutes with a staffer of hers that I had class with and he wasn't doing the usual coy routine; he seemed very serious so we'll see.

I actually didn't even see the man who was supposed to be the center of attention - Bruce Castor - though he was certainly up there for the weekend.

[Keystone Phil]

The latest big news: Casey won't rule out a run in 2014.

Some PA Society partygoers stated Treasurer McCord said he will defer to Schwartz if she wants to run.

Former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (elected in 2008 and defeated in 2010) is thinking about a run.

Finally, my State Senator - Mike Stack - confirmed that he's considering throwing his hat in the ring. Hahaha...oh my...

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like I have to take back something I said: Castor wasn't in NYC. On his Facebook, he stated that he committed to be with his family during this time before all of this talk began and wasn't even asked by the media he'd attend (we all expected you to be there especially with this talk, Bruce). 

He certainly timed his announcement though. He didn't mind everyone talking about him while he wasn't there.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's a more surprising development: State Senator Tim Solobay - a Pro Life, Pro Gun "Casey Democrat" - has thrown his hat in the ring. Solobay is from the Southwest and might just benefit from the amount of Southeastern candidates running. This could be interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz talked for DCCC Finance Chair. Obviously very unlikely to run now.

[Keystone Phil]

Castor questions the timing of Corbett's NCAA lawsuit - http://mobile.pennlive.com/advpenn/pm_29239/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=JgEpuIAm

[Keystone Phil]

PPP's latest has Corbett with a 38% approval rating (among five most unpopular Governors). Pennsylvanians approve of his NCAA lawsuit but only 27% approve of his handling of the entire Penn State scandal.

Rendell leads Corbett 46% to 40%. He's tied with Kane and leads the rest:

The rest of the Democrats we tested Corbett leads by modest margins. It's 41/38 over Michael Nutter, 41/37 over John Hanger, 42/36 over Joe Sestak, 41/35 over Rob McCord, 41/34 over Allyson Schwartz, and 41/29 over Tom Wolf.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html

Only lesson Nutter by three? Ouch. Just...ouch.

[Keystone Phil]

I love the trap pbrower walked into, claiming the GOP wins in the legislature in 2012 were because of the gerrymandering. We maintained the margin we achieved in 2010 under the Dem-favored map.