The Florida results...anomoly or cause for serious GOP concern?

[sg0508]

Of all the toss-up states, it was probably the one most likely to go to the GOP next to NC and the democrats won the state.  Chuck Todd's analysis showed five things:

1) I-4 Corridor- Obama swamped Romney, especially with the Puerto Rican vote
2) Hispanics- Obama swamped Romney (the story in CO and across the country)
3) Cubans- Obama performed the best of any democrat with that demographic
4) Young Voters- Like in 2000, 2004 and 2008, the democrats crushed the Republicans
5) GOP turnout didn't appear to be depressed

Some Republicans seem to be writing the FL loss off as turnout (i.e. the GOP voters thought the race was over and didn't bother to show), but for 29 EVs in my opinion, this was a significant win for the Democrats.  Similar to OH, there is almost no path to 270 going forward for the Republicans without FL and while locally the state is dominated by Republicans, the democrats are going to slowly take this gold mine of EVs and political power away from the GOP too.

Opinions?

[dspNY]

Of all the toss-up states, it was probably the one most likely to go to the GOP next to NC and the democrats won the state.  Chuck Todd's analysis showed five things:

1) I-4 Corridor- Obama swamped Romney, especially with the Puerto Rican vote
2) Hispanics- Obama swamped Romney (the story in CO and across the country)
3) Cubans- Obama performed the best of any democrat with that demographic
4) Young Voters- Like in 2000, 2004 and 2008, the democrats crushed the Republicans
5) GOP turnout didn't appear to be depressed

Some Republicans seem to be writing the FL loss off as turnout (i.e. the GOP voters thought the race was over and didn't bother to show), but for 29 EVs in my opinion, this was a significant win for the Democrats.  Similar to OH, there is almost no path to 270 going forward for the Republicans without FL and while locally the state is dominated by Republicans, the democrats are going to slowly take this gold mine of EVs and political power away from the GOP too.

Opinions?

Serious concern...

1, The I-4, which the GOP needs to be a swing area, is now leaning Democratic due to a growing Puerto Rican population. Hillsborough and Pinellas were several points more Dem than the state at large

2. See point 1, and I'll add that Miami is less Cuban than it was 20 years ago, and Florida Cubans actually split almost evenly, depending on what exit poll you look at. Castro isn't the same boogeyman he once was

3. See point 2, also Florida Cubans who don't live in Miami are more likely to be swing voters

4. Young voters is a nationwide concern for the GOP, not just a Floridian concern

5. The GOP actually has a very good ground game in FL (built by Jeb). They turned out their voters better in FL than in other swing states, and still lost

[Brittain33]

Re: #2, I heard that the Obama campaign hit Ryan for opposing the embargo.

[DemPGH]

It's a real concern, especially that I-4 corridor business. if they can't count on FL or if FL is straight up for grabs and down to turnout, they're in trouble with the states elsewhere that are trending Democratic.

In many cases as well you have people leaving Central and South America where they at least had healthcare and coming here to find out the policy is tough luck, buddy. Think they'll vote to change that? You bet ya.

[MrMittens]

It's a real concern, especially that I-4 corridor business. if they can't count on FL or if FL is straight up for grabs and down to turnout, they're in trouble with the states elsewhere that are trending Democratic.

In many cases as well you have people leaving Central and South America where they at least had healthcare and coming here to find out the policy is tough luck, buddy. Think they'll vote to change that? You bet ya.

Then why are they leaving Central and South America

[Sol]

It's a real concern, especially that I-4 corridor business. if they can't count on FL or if FL is straight up for grabs and down to turnout, they're in trouble with the states elsewhere that are trending Democratic.

In many cases as well you have people leaving Central and South America where they at least had healthcare and coming here to find out the policy is tough luck, buddy. Think they'll vote to change that? You bet ya.

Then why are they leaving Central and South America

There are more jobs here.

[DemPGH]

It's a real concern, especially that I-4 corridor business. if they can't count on FL or if FL is straight up for grabs and down to turnout, they're in trouble with the states elsewhere that are trending Democratic.

In many cases as well you have people leaving Central and South America where they at least had healthcare and coming here to find out the policy is tough luck, buddy. Think they'll vote to change that? You bet ya.

Then why are they leaving Central and South America

Universities and careers. Just getting into a large state school would be a dream. And skilled blue collar work that's not really an option in their home countries.

[Benj]

Re: #2, I heard that the Obama campaign hit Ryan for opposing the embargo.

Would be disappointing if true. Though I don't see it happening this time around, the second term of a Democratic President is about the only time I can see the Cuba embargo ending.

[The Free North]

I saw a report recently that found that young cuban americans tend to vote more republican than there parents, found that hard to believe, but if its true, than the GOP's real problem seems to be with non-cuban hispanics.

Hillsborough county was a big surprise for me, great sign for the dems though. If they can take florida off the map, GOP is going to have a hard time winning national elections.

[Adam Griffin]

I saw a report recently that found that young cuban americans tend to vote more republican than there parents, found that hard to believe, but if its true, than the GOP's real problem seems to be with non-cuban hispanics.

Not true. Obama actually won Cubans in FL this year (49-47); that would not have happened if young Cubans were flocking to the Republican Party.

[Benj]

One thing striking about Florida is that, if the margin in Miami-Dade County had stayed the same as in 2008, Obama very well might have lost the state. He won Miami-Dade by about 140k in 2008 and by about 210k in 2012, while winning statewide by about 70k in 2012. Thus, the entirety of his 2012 margin was from his gains in Miami-Dade. Whether that's good or bad news for the Republicans is hard to tell, as the future of the Cuban vote remains uncertain.

[sg0508]

Keep in mind also that displaced voters from NY, NJ, PA and IL continuously move to South and Central Florida and most of these voters are democrats or vote for democrats.

Similar to VA and CO, the democratic populations of FL seem to be growing at a faster rate than their rivals.

[Nichlemn]

I saw a report recently that found that young cuban americans tend to vote more republican than there parents, found that hard to believe, but if its true, than the GOP's real problem seems to be with non-cuban hispanics.

Not true. Obama actually won Cubans in FL this year (49-47); that would not have happened if young Cubans were flocking to the Republican Party.

Probably not actually.

[Chaddyr23]

As a Floridian from Broward County I have to say the area is simply getting more and more diverse. Compared to 2008 Obama lost some of the wealthiest suburbs of the county such as Parkland (which he carried in 08) and parts of the area closest to the beach. However, turnout in areas where my family lived surged to 60-80% and areas being heavily minority voted in numbers 80-90% Obama. Also in Miami Dade, the same thing. Black and non Cuban latinos propelled him to victory.

The same can be said for the I-4 corridor, minority growth in Tampa and Orlando region has been explosive and tipped the scales to our favor. It's also important to note that he lost Volusia County (Daytona Bch) even John Kerry won it. The area is older and white.

Another thing I just noticed is that Obama won the fast and diverse Tampa county of Hillsborough by a bigger margin than he won the fairly static St. Petersburg (Pinellas County). Even Kerry ran three points ahead in Pinellas when he ran.

[hopper]

I think Miami-Dade and Broward County are a definite concern for the GOP. The Orlando area has to be a concern for the GOP as well.

[memphis]

FL still votes more GOP than the nation as a whole, which is an enormous boon for Republicans.  If FL is in play, they've already lost.