Vote counting update thread

[Benj]

Wee question...as I'm not American I don't understand how they can call an election on election day when actually there were millions of votes uncounted, anyone cares to elaborate?

Statistics

That's hardly enough to call an election when you only counted 60% of the votes

If you have all the precincts (or even most of them) with some of the vote in, you can make a very good call. The rest of the votes coming in from that area isn't going to differ significantly from what came before.

Also, way more than 60% of the votes were counted by the end of election night. Around 85-90% of the votes were counted. Additionally, it was known that most of the outstanding votes were, at the time, in noncompetitive states like California, New York and Washington.

[danny]

Wee question...as I'm not American I don't understand how they can call an election on election day when actually there were millions of votes uncounted, anyone cares to elaborate?

Statistics

That's hardly enough to call an election when you only counted 60% of the votes

It is, possibly a lot less than that actually, depending on how close the election is and where the remaining votes are from.

[Tender Branson]

Wee question...as I'm not American I don't understand how they can call an election on election day when actually there were millions of votes uncounted, anyone cares to elaborate?

Statistics

That's hardly enough to call an election when you only counted 60% of the votes

It is, possibly a lot less than that actually, depending on how close the election is and where the remaining votes are from.

If you have counted 60% of the votes on election day in let's say NY or CA and the counted results are 60-35 Obama, then you can argue that the rest doesn't differ too much from the counted results. Besides, you also have the exit polls.

[SetonHallPirate]

I know Wasserman has Hawaii listed as not being final, but it is, in fact, certified: http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/general/

West Virginia is just missing Marshall County. New York is missing quite a few counties.

[Badger]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

[Frodo]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Are they done counting yet, or do we have to wait until Christmas? 

[Benj]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Are they done counting yet, or do we have to wait until Christmas?  

I don't know what's wrong with New York, but they haven't counted anything in the past week or so. That's where 99% of the remaining uncounted votes are. I think a few votes have trickled in elsewhere, but not enough to be interesting. Other than New York, Hawaii and West Virginia have yet to certify their results (but it's unclear whether they're done counting or not).

Current national numbers are 50.97-47.29. Obama will end up over 51% once New York is done; there are definitely enough votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated California and the other States that certified recently.

[Badger]

Dave still hasn't updated California and the other States that certified recently.

I'm guessing he's waiting for all state's to certify.

Looks like Obama won't reach a 4% margin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated California and the other States that certified recently.

I'm guessing he's waiting for all state's to certify.

AND THAT SUCKS!

[SetonHallPirate]

As I said earlier, the Hawaii numbers are certified. Not sure what Wasserman is waiting for, other than, perhaps, Christmas 2013.

[memphis]

Regarding the question of how states are called before all the results are in. Networks do not wait until they know with 100% accuracy. They have a statistical threshold, probably in the range of 99%. And voters are very predeictable, down to the precincts. It's actually pretty easy to predict.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like NY and NE are done as well and nothing has been added in NY ...

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/PresidentVicePresident12Provisional12102012.pdf

I thought Dec. 17 was the certification day in NY ? Or will they update later ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated the final results in MA, NE and KS.

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like NY and NE are done as well and nothing has been added in NY ...

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/PresidentVicePresident12Provisional12102012.pdf

I thought Dec. 17 was the certification day in NY ? Or will they update later ?

NYC and about a dozen other counties still haven't provided final results

http://www.elections.ny.gov/2012ElectionResults.html

[timothyinMD]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

[AndyAJS]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

I've included write-in votes on my spreadsheet if you're interested in taking a look at that. The link is in my signature.

Dave Wasserman says Hawaii hasn't certified because there are still disputes about some of the minor races which is holding up the entire process.

I'd like to know: why hasn't New York finished counting? They should have done so before the electoral college met on December 17th. Don't they believe in due process any more?

There's a big problem with vote counting in the USA in my opinion. In most countries it's recognised that you have to count all the votes within a few days, even if it doesn't affect the result. But the attitude in a lot of American states seems to be: "We know who the winner is, so what's the point in finishing counting all the votes?" That's the type of attitude you'd expert in a third-world country rather than the world's number one superpower.

New York still has 413,000 votes to count according to Wasserman and yet the New York electors have already cast their ballots. That isn't a good example of democracy in action.

[minionofmidas]

Don't they believe in due process any more?

Never have.

New York amended its certificate months later last time round too, on account of finding more postal ballots. I kid you not. So this sort of thing must be legally possible in NY.

[old timey villain]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

I've included write-in votes on my spreadsheet if you're interested in taking a look at that. The link is in my signature.

Dave Wasserman says Hawaii hasn't certified because there are still disputes about some of the minor races which is holding up the entire process.

I'd like to know: why hasn't New York finished counting? They should have done so before the electoral college met on December 17th. Don't they believe in due process any more?

There's a big problem with vote counting in the USA in my opinion. In most countries it's recognised that you have to count all the votes within a few days, even if it doesn't affect the result. But the attitude in a lot of American states seems to be: "We know who the winner is, so what's the point in finishing counting all the votes?" That's the type of attitude you'd expert in a third-world country rather than the world's number one superpower.

New York still has 413,000 votes to count according to Wasserman and yet the New York electors have already cast their ballots. That isn't a good example of democracy in action.

Another argument for the electoral college. In our current system, 400K votes from New York don't matter because it's clear who won the state, and even if they all go to Romney it won't change the electoral map. But imagine a popular vote system, where 400K votes from any state could alter the outcome of a close election. Luckily, with the way things are now, outstanding ballots will only affect an election if they come from a very close state that acts as a tipping point in the electoral college totals, so the chances of a hung election are slimmer.

[Benj]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

I've included write-in votes on my spreadsheet if you're interested in taking a look at that. The link is in my signature.

Dave Wasserman says Hawaii hasn't certified because there are still disputes about some of the minor races which is holding up the entire process.

I'd like to know: why hasn't New York finished counting? They should have done so before the electoral college met on December 17th. Don't they believe in due process any more?

There's a big problem with vote counting in the USA in my opinion. In most countries it's recognised that you have to count all the votes within a few days, even if it doesn't affect the result. But the attitude in a lot of American states seems to be: "We know who the winner is, so what's the point in finishing counting all the votes?" That's the type of attitude you'd expert in a third-world country rather than the world's number one superpower.

New York still has 413,000 votes to count according to Wasserman and yet the New York electors have already cast their ballots. That isn't a good example of democracy in action.

Another argument for the electoral college. In our current system, 400K votes from New York don't matter because it's clear who won the state, and even if they all go to Romney it won't change the electoral map. But imagine a popular vote system, where 400K votes from any state could alter the outcome of a close election. Luckily, with the way things are now, outstanding ballots will only affect an election if they come from a very close state that acts as a tipping point in the electoral college totals, so the chances of a hung election are slimmer.

Not really. The only reason vote counting is taking so long is that no one cares. If it actually mattered, they'd have finished counting ages ago.

[old timey villain]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

I've included write-in votes on my spreadsheet if you're interested in taking a look at that. The link is in my signature.

Dave Wasserman says Hawaii hasn't certified because there are still disputes about some of the minor races which is holding up the entire process.

I'd like to know: why hasn't New York finished counting? They should have done so before the electoral college met on December 17th. Don't they believe in due process any more?

There's a big problem with vote counting in the USA in my opinion. In most countries it's recognised that you have to count all the votes within a few days, even if it doesn't affect the result. But the attitude in a lot of American states seems to be: "We know who the winner is, so what's the point in finishing counting all the votes?" That's the type of attitude you'd expert in a third-world country rather than the world's number one superpower.

New York still has 413,000 votes to count according to Wasserman and yet the New York electors have already cast their ballots. That isn't a good example of democracy in action.

Another argument for the electoral college. In our current system, 400K votes from New York don't matter because it's clear who won the state, and even if they all go to Romney it won't change the electoral map. But imagine a popular vote system, where 400K votes from any state could alter the outcome of a close election. Luckily, with the way things are now, outstanding ballots will only affect an election if they come from a very close state that acts as a tipping point in the electoral college totals, so the chances of a hung election are slimmer.

Not really. The only reason vote counting is taking so long is that no one cares. If it actually mattered, they'd have finished counting ages ago.

You might be right, but it could be wishful thinking.

[emailking]

Another argument for the electoral college. In our current system, 400K votes from New York don't matter because it's clear who won the state, and even if they all go to Romney it won't change the electoral map. But imagine a popular vote system, where 400K votes from any state could alter the outcome of a close election. Luckily, with the way things are now, outstanding ballots will only affect an election if they come from a very close state that acts as a tipping point in the electoral college totals, so the chances of a hung election are slimmer.

There are lots of systems you can come up with that might avoid problems with some other system. For example, a national popular vote system would have avoided the recounts and legal battles that took place in Florida in 2000.

[Badger]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

[Tender Branson]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

Right now:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

But New York has about 400.000 to 500.000 ballots left to report.

Considering that Obama will win them by at least 65-33, because most of those votes come from NYC, the final margin will be more like 51.0 to 47.2 for Obama or:

65.940.000 votes for Obama (ca. 51.02%)
61.012.000 votes for Romney (ca. 47.21%)

[Tender Branson]

So what are the national numbers and percents now?

Right now:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

But New York has about 400.000 to 500.000 ballots left to report.

Considering that Obama will win them by at least 65-33, because most of those votes come from NYC, the final margin will be more like 51.0 to 47.2 for Obama or:

65.940.000 votes for Obama (ca. 51.02%)
61.012.000 votes for Romney (ca. 47.21%)

The final best-case-scenario I can come up with is:

51.05% Obama
47.19% Romney

And this is only if there are 600.000 ballots left in NY, with Obama winning them 70-28 ...