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Author Topic: The candidate no one has mentioned...  (Read 6082 times)
nick
nickshepDEM
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« on: February 06, 2005, 11:26:01 pm »
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Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry (Democrat).



"You heard it hear first: Gov. Brad Henry of Oklahoma is going to be the 44th president of the United States and will begin his campaign right after he is reelected in 2006. Henry is a 40 year old (44 by 08) popular, progressive, governor of one of the redest states in America.  Henry is a strong advocate for universal health care, and for early childhood education, and a leading opponent against school vouchers.   Henry attened public schools in Shawnee, OK, and graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1985 and recieved his law degree from the University of Oklahoma College of Law, where he served as managing editor of the Law Review. Henry was elected to the state senate in 1992 and served there until his election as governor in 2002.  Henry and his wife teach Sunday school, every weekend at the First Baptist Church of Swanee." -jkfp2004



*What type of candidate would this guy be in a Presidential Election?
*Do any of you guys know more about him?
*What do you guys think?

(p.s. dont claim he is to conservative to get the nomination because he is loved at three of the most liberal message boards on the internet Democratic Underground, MyDD, and DailyKOS.)

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Akno21
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2005, 11:32:47 pm »
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He very well could get it, though he needs to get his name out there, and get a campaign team together.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2005, 11:35:36 pm »
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Don't worry, I know of him. I also think Wisconsin Gov. Doyle is a potential candidate. I actually like Doyle's chances better than Henry's; the latter is another possibility that sounds great in theory but would be less great in practice. Not to count him out, but I'm pretty skeptical at this point. I think the fact he's loved at DU and DKos says more against him than it does for him.

An optimistic view would be to compare him to Mitt Romney, and while they are no doubt fairly similar, I like Romney's overall package better and I think he could be a very capable "system" candidate (i.e. more or less a creation of the Party). The Democratic Party is less centralized and Henry might not be the kind of guy that would succeed in the primaries, even if he turned out to be a legitimate candidate.
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nick
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2005, 11:41:28 pm »
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I think the fact he's loved at DU and DKos says more against him than it does for him.

The state of Oklahoma thinks otherwise.  The point of discussing his popularity at those sites was to prove he can get out of the "brutal/liberal" primary.

The only downside I see is, he is up for re-election in 2006.  It will be kind of hard to come off a long gubernatorial campaign and jump right into a presidential campaign.

I would label him as a "sleeper" or "dark horse" candidate.




« Last Edit: February 06, 2005, 11:43:09 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
AuH2O
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2005, 11:50:12 pm »
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I think the fact he's loved at DU and DKos says more against him than it does for him.

The state of Oklahoma thinks otherwise.  The point of discussing his popularity at those sites was to prove he can get out of the "brutal/liberal" primary.

The only downside I see is, he is up for re-election in 2006.  It will be kind of hard to come off a long gubernatorial campaign and jump right into a presidential campaign.

I would label him as a "sleeper" or "dark horse" candidate.






1) He didn't exactly waltz into office. Actually he could well lose in '06 so I wouldn't place any bets on him yet.

2) Voters have proven they will vote for certain types of candidates at the state level but not the federal level.
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nick
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2005, 11:54:42 pm »
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2) Voters have proven they will vote for certain types of candidates at the state level but not the federal level.

Im not claiming he will win Oklahoma in a presidential election.  I know that would be impossible.  But the fact that he was even elected Governor of Oklahoma as a progressive/liberal democrat proves he would put alot of states in play that most democrats could not.

Let me ask you this.  As a democrat I openly admit that there are certain republican candidates I would rather not see get the nomination because I know they would be extremley hard to beat.  As a Republican would you rather see him not get the nomination?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2005, 11:56:20 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2005, 11:57:09 pm »
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I'd be happy to run against a real liberal, as long as he also promises to raise everybody's taxes.
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2005, 12:03:13 am »
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2) Voters have proven they will vote for certain types of candidates at the state level but not the federal level.

Im not claiming he will win Oklahoma in a presidential election.  I know that would be impossible.  But the fact that he was even elected Governor of Oklahoma as a progressive/liberal democrat proves he would put alot of states in play that most democrats could not.

Let me ask you this.  As a democrat I openly admit that there are certain republican candidates I would rather not see get the nomination because I know they would be extremley hard to beat.  As a Republican would you rather see him not get the nomination?

I don't know enough about him. My point is that I don't see him as very good odds-wise to get the nomination. IF he does, then that probably means he would be fairly formidable. Also note that if he even HINTS at a Presidential run before the 2006 Governor's race, he is done, over, through, kaput. So you certainly won't be hearing anything from him or his close supporters until at least late 2006- if he's reelected.

I think Democrats sometimes misunderstand the political divide, such as it is. There are always tradeoffs... if a candidate appeals more to people in Arkansas, he probably appeals less to someone elsewhere. I'm not sure running as a leftist out of Oklahoma is that much better than running as a leftist out of Massachussetts, though I understand why it would seem to be.
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nick
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2005, 12:04:00 am »
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I'd be happy to run against a real liberal, as long as he also promises to raise everybody's taxes.

So, a republican that raises taxes is now considered a liberal too?
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2005, 12:13:05 am »
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I'd be happy to run against a real liberal, as long as he also promises to raise everybody's taxes.

So, a republican that raises taxes is now considered a liberal too?

No, I just want to make sure this liberal will propose major tax hikes.
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nick
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2005, 12:14:41 am »
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Also note that if he even HINTS at a Presidential run before the 2006 Governor's race, he is done, over, through, kaput. So you certainly won't be hearing anything from him or his close supporters until at least late 2006- if he's reelected.


I agree,  if he comes out and says he is running in 2008 he will be toast in 2006, but other than that I dont see how he can lose in 2006. His approval ratings are at 65%.  Approval ratings of 65% are usually enough to say the odds are strongly in favor of a candidate being re-elected.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2005, 12:16:31 am by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2005, 12:17:38 am »
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Did the OK Gov run as a Progressive/Liberal, or has merely tried to govern as one since taking office.  If he ran as a stealth conservative, then turned around and governed as a liberal, I rate his chances very low.

The fact that he is a Sunday school teacher will hurt him in the Dem primaries, DU notwithstanding.  The DU crown is still shell-shocked from their beating in Nov, and is no doubt looking for anyone who can reverse the tide.  By '08 their attitudes will have shifted to the left, er...ultra left.

I must admit  that I don't know very much about him personally.
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nick
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2005, 12:27:42 am »
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Did the OK Gov run as a Progressive/Liberal, or has merely tried to govern as one since taking office.  If he ran as a stealth conservative, then turned around and governed as a liberal, I rate his chances very low.

I doubt he switched it up to much when he ran for governor considering he was a state senator for 10 years.  If he did the voters would have caught on and slammed him.

The fact that he is a Sunday school teacher will hurt him in the Dem primaries

I dont see how that would hurt him at all.  This idea that progressives and democrats hate christianity is insane.

The DU crown is still shell-shocked from their beating in Nov, and is no doubt looking for anyone who can reverse the tide.  By '08 their attitudes will have shifted to the left, er...ultra left.

Not true.  If they were so shell shocked and hard up for a win they would be flocking to the "electable" Evan Bayh or Bill Richardson etc. instead of pounding me everytime I mention the name Evan Bayh.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2005, 12:45:19 am by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2005, 09:11:30 am »
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That reelection conundrum could be evaded by not running for reelection.
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2005, 09:34:42 am »
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The fact that he is a Sunday school teacher will hurt him in the Dem primaries

I dont see how that would hurt him at all.  This idea that progressives and democrats hate christianity is insane.

I don't hate Christianity per se, but after eight years of Bush I would like to see return to seperation of church and state in the federal government.
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2005, 11:00:44 am »
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Could he win OK for the Dems if nominated in 2008?

Anyone like to suggest a map for Henry vs. a generic R?
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2005, 11:09:52 am »
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Could he win OK for the Dems if nominated in 2008?

Hell no, but the fact that he is popular there (65% approval rating) proves he will appeal to other southern and midwest states.  I dont know who his opponent would be so I cant really give a specific map, but I can put one together of states that I think he could defintley put in play and probably win.



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AuH2O
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2005, 12:24:07 pm »
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I don't think it's feasible to draw up maps at this stage. Too much we don't know about the next few years.
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Rob
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2005, 01:06:00 pm »
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Henry would be an excellent candidate, but I don't think he'll run.
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2005, 01:19:13 pm »
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FYI, Henry has always struck me as an opportunist.  Take that as you may, it's just a fact.

He won in 2002 with 43% of the vote by roughly 7,000 votes over former football player Steve Largent (Oklahoma, much like Nebraska, likes to elect football players to office).  Largent was hurt by Gary Richardson, an anti-tax candidate who ran to the right of him and garnered 14% of the vote.

Simply put, that and two other reasons are why Henry won. 

Largent stupidly supported a ban on cockfighting (still legal and extremely popular in east Oklahoma), while Henry opposed it, gaining him votes you wouldn't normally expect him to get.

Henry also campaigned around with former OU coach Barry Switzer constantly to neutralize Largent's football advantages.

IMO in 2006, Henry's strength or weakness will depend on how strong the Republican candidate is.

One of the ways Oklahoma is very different from most other Republican states is that they will typically only go for serious hardcore conservatives.  The State House and Senate is still Democrat and most voters are still Democrats (conservative, at best).

If there's a RINO out there, he ain't gonna win (unless he's maybe a famous OU player).  If there's a redmeat conservative, I'd give him half a shot, 65% approval or not.

We'll see.
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2005, 01:37:31 pm »
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The fact that he is a Sunday school teacher will hurt him in the Dem primaries, DU notwithstanding.  The DU crown is still shell-shocked from their beating in Nov, and is no doubt looking for anyone who can reverse the tide.  By '08 their attitudes will have shifted to the left, er...ultra left.

hardly true, there are some people there who seem to have the idea that Barbara Boxer would be the best candidate in 2008. Luckily despite what almost every Republican seems to think they don't represent most Democrats, as we can see by Kucinich's showing.
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nick
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2005, 01:44:35 pm »
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I don't think it's feasible to draw up maps at this stage. Too much we don't know about the next few years.
I agree, but I was just estimating what states he could compete in.
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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2005, 02:21:46 pm »
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I don't think it's feasible to draw up maps at this stage. Too much we don't know about the next few years.
I agree, but I was just estimating what states he could compete in.

Both Republicans and Democrats compete in all 50 states, though obviously in some they have much greater success than others.

Sam's analysis is good.
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don't forget to remember, the devil's got pills in his eyes

look, laugh, but don't touch... cut you down to size
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« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2005, 03:27:02 pm »

I Dont Like him, He is on VH1 all the time.
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« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2005, 05:52:44 pm »
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He would be an intersting candidate.  He strikes me like Pataki, if he wins in '06, which may or may not happen, he has a shot, but otherwise no. 
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