Wisconsin Megathread

[Nhoj]

Much of out state does tend to be pro incumbent.

[pbrower2a]

He shoots up to the top tier of potential GOP nominees. The people who most matter in GOP politics, the Koch family, have likely found him 'their finest pupil'.

[Miles]

Here's the two-party average by county from the four statewide races; Republicans won the overall vote by about 3%:



And the statewide PVI for each county:

[ElectionsGuy]

Nice work Miles!

I believe Washburn County on the PVI map is wrong, it never went above 55% R.

[Miles]

^ Thanks.

Turnout was up in every county:

[Linus Van Pelt]

Dave has posted the map of the 2014 gubernatorial election by municipality to the Atlas blog.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dave has posted the map of the 2014 gubernatorial election by municipality to the Atlas blog.

[TJ in Oregon]

Holy cow! Did Walker actually win the city of Green Bay!?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Holy cow! Did Walker actually win the city of Green Bay!?

Not that surprising seeing as how Bush almost won it in 2004.

[ElectionsGuy]

Holy cow! Did Walker actually win the city of Green Bay!?

I almost forgot, but I tabulated the results of the biggest cities in this thread.

[Torie]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

[Gass3268]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

[Torie]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

Thanks. Here are my numbers lifted from the WI elections website (maybe a few more votes drifted in after these numbers were put up). Interestingly, the host of Pub gerrymandering county chops for this CD were worth about one point of PVI.



The CD might be in play if Kind vacates. It trended Pub 2.8% in PVI from 2008 to 2012, and if that trend repeats in 2016, its PVI will be down to a Dem PVI of 1% (from about a 3.5% PVI in the 2012 election). The Dem rather unusual hold on more rural and smaller town based lower middle to working class whites in this part of the Mississippi Valley (Iowa too), seems to be eroding some at the moment. The Pubs might wish now that WI-07 has trended so hard Pub (also about 2.8% in PVI), and Duffy is so well ensconced, that they had not gone there.

Below are maps of the current WI03 and WI-07, and one that gets rid of the chops and smooths out the lines (the revised WI-03 kind of has a tornado shape, doesn't it?), making WI-03 0.7% more Pub in PVI per 2008 numbers, and WI-07 0.7% less Pub. The Pubs did a lot of chops and erosity for not much, which now appears counterproductive politically for them. Kind of sweet justice in a way, just like the Dems' "dummymander" in Illinois.

  

[Miles]

^ It looks like I had a few precincts in the wrong CD, but FWIW, we're 6 votes off on Walker's total in CD3.

[TJ in Oregon]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

Thanks. Here are my numbers lifted from the WI elections website (maybe a few more votes drifted in after these numbers were put up). Interestingly, the host of Pub gerrymandering county chops for this CD were worth about one point of PVI.



The CD might be in play if Kind vacates. It trended Pub 2.8% in PVI from 2008 to 2012, and if that trend repeats in 2016, its PVI will be down to a Dem PVI of 1% (from about a 3.5% PVI in the 2012 election). The Dem rather unusual hold on more rural and smaller town based lower middle to working class whites in this part of the Mississippi Valley (Iowa too), seems to be eroding some at the moment. The Pubs might wish now that WI-07 has trended so hard Pub (also about 2.8% in PVI), and Duffy is so well ensconced, that they had not gone there.

Below are maps of the current WI03 and WI-07, and one that gets rid of the chops and smooths out the lines (the revised WI-03 kind of has a tornado shape, doesn't it?), making WI-03 0.7% more Pub in PVI per 2008 numbers, and WI-07 0.7% less Pub. The Pubs did a lot of chops and erosity for not much, which now appears counterproductive politically for them. Kind of sweet justice in a way, just like the Dems' "dummymander" in Illinois.

  

One caveat I'd like to throw in here is that you can't trust 2008 presidential numbers in Wisconsin to be indicative of much of anything. A 2008-2012 Republican trend is most likely just a reversion to the mean in prior presidential elections in the rural parts of the state. There has been a lot of discussion about the trends in SW Wisconsin in favor of the Dems and NW Wisconsin in favor of the Republicans (compare 2012 to 2004 or 2000). I wouldn't be shocked to see everything north of La Crosse except for the city of Eau Claire and Portage Counties become Republican territory in the near future.

But the real key to WI-3 is to find a moderate Republican who has the right kind of crossover appeal. We do have a lot of state legislators from this area. But it's super-elastic and certainly won't be safe for us or particularly close against Kind.

As for Duffy, while it was made safer than probably necessary for him, it was made to make sure he could survive a wave. The Republicans wanted to make sure they could still get 5 congressmen out of Wisconsin in another 2008 scenario. Duffy still isn't completely safe in a wave because of just how swingy the rural parts of the state are, though most people agree the long term trends are in Duffy's favor.

[Gass3268]

One caveat I'd like to throw in here is that you can't trust 2008 presidential numbers in Wisconsin to be indicative of much of anything. A 2008-2012 Republican trend is most likely just a reversion to the mean in prior presidential elections in the rural parts of the state. There has been a lot of discussion about the trends in SW Wisconsin in favor of the Dems and NW Wisconsin in favor of the Republicans (compare 2012 to 2004 or 2000). I wouldn't be shocked to see everything north of La Crosse except for the city of Eau Claire and Portage Counties become Republican territory in the near future.

But the real key to WI-3 is to find a moderate Republican who has the right kind of crossover appeal. We do have a lot of state legislators from this area. But it's super-elastic and certainly won't be safe for us or particularly close against Kind.

As for Duffy, while it was made safer than probably necessary for him, it was made to make sure he could survive a wave. The Republicans wanted to make sure they could still get 5 congressmen out of Wisconsin in another 2008 scenario. Duffy still isn't completely safe in a wave because of just how swingy the rural parts of the state are, though most people agree the long term trends are in Duffy's favor.

I agree a lot with this analysis. Really one could view 08 as the high watermark for Democrats in the state and 10 as the high watermark for Republicans. I agree that in most typical elections, north of La Crosse, the only automatic counties for Democrats will be Eau Claire and Portage Counties (along with the Lake Superior counties of Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas, but those are automatics).

Yet it would really depend on the type of election to really judge the others. Races were the Democrat wins is gonna involve them carrying almost all of the counties near the Mississippi River (Buffalo, Jackson, Pepin, and Trempealeau), counties with a University town (Dunn and in a very good year Pierce), and your occasional Northwoods county (Chippewa, Lincoln, Sawyer, Price or Washburn).

The 3rd won't be close as long as Ron Kind is around, but it's becoming more and more likely he's gonna run for the Senate or Governor in the near future. I think the Republicans could only win this district if it was a midterm election and they clearly nominated someone that was a moderate like former their former Congressman Steve Gunderson. Yet because of how the seat was drawn, Democrats do have a pretty good bench in this district. State Senators Julie Lassa, Jennifer Shilling and Kathleen Vinehout would all be pretty strong candidates with with a good base of support in the district.

[Torie]

Off topic here I know, but below is a "contest" map using Muon2's rules more or less, respecting defined metro areas, avoiding highway cuts where possible (thus the chop of Shawano Cty, which could have been avoided by WI-08 taking Florence and Menominee Counties, but at the cost of about 5 more highway cuts), and the like. What's interesting, is that other than hyper Pub WI-05, which becomes even more so, and WI-01, which moves into the uber competitive category using 2008 numbers, nothing much changes, with the swing CD's moving less than a point in PVI. The  Pub "gerrymander," other than moving WI-01 (it's all about Ryan baby) a couple of points to the Pub side, was close to being all sound and fury signifying next to nothing. A "fair" map ends up to being close to the same place politically.

 

[Gass3268]

Some Stronger Rumblings That Feingold May Run Against Johnson In 2016

[Maxwell]

Ron Johnson has grown on me some, but I have an affection for Russ Feingold too, so this election would be quite a hard pick for me - a rare thing in politics.

[IceSpear]

Some Stronger Rumblings That Feingold May Run Against Johnson In 2016

Spectacular news!

[Gass3268]

Walker v Burke by State Assembly District

[Gass3268]

2014 Assembly Elections. Notice the large amounts of uncontested seats.

[Mr. Illini]

Protests are brewing again in Madison over Walker's proposed $300 million cut to the UW system

Temp at time of protest: 3 degrees fahrenheit

[Flake]

2014 Assembly Elections. Notice the large amounts of uncontested seats.

Florida House of Representatives

we win

[RogueBeaver]

Feingold leaving State.