Wisconsin Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like Puzder might withdraw as Trump's choice for Labor Secretary, meaning there's a decent chance that Trump would pick Walker to take the job instead.  So we may be in for Gov. Kleefisch.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sounds like Puzder might withdraw as Trump's choice for Labor Secretary, meaning there's a decent chance that Trump would pick Walker to take the job instead.  So we may be in for Gov. Kleefisch.

[Gass3268]

WISCTV News 3 ‏@WISCTV_News3  2m
2 minutes ago
 
 
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#BREAKING Republican Rep. Sean Duffy says he will not run for U.S. Senate against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018.

[publicunofficial]

[publicunofficial]

Also the song he referenced is about Reaganite policies leading to a nuclear holocaust.

[henster]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

[heatcharger]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

[Gass3268]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

[heatcharger]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

How are you so sure? What candidates do the Democrats have to run? I'm just skeptical that a district that swung 16 points towards Trump will give a Democrat the job in an open race.

[henster]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

How are you so sure? What candidates do the Democrats have to run? I'm just skeptical that a district that swung 16 points towards Trump will give a Democrat the job in an open race.

If you assume a smooth midterm for the GOP and Trump JA in WI being positive.

[Gass3268]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

How are you so sure? What candidates do the Democrats have to run? I'm just skeptical that a district that swung 16 points towards Trump will give a Democrat the job in an open race.

Democrats have about the same amount of State Senators and Representatives in this District as Republicans do.

[publicunofficial]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

No it wouldn't, it would be a very contested race.

How are you so sure? What candidates do the Democrats have to run? I'm just skeptical that a district that swung 16 points towards Trump will give a Democrat the job in an open race.

Jennifer Shilling is a speculative statewide candidate, but could go for WI-03 if Kind left. She also represents a Trump district. Kathleen Vinehout is another option.

[Mr.Phips]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

Lol, no.

[Dr. Arch]

I've been saying it for a long time. If anyone picks up anything in Wisconsin right now, it's Kind.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, if I wasn't enthralled with the prospect of Governor Russ Feingold in my TL (still think he could do it if he relented on Super PACs) I'd have Kind be Governor. He's the Tim Ryan of Wisconsin; the absolute best pick the state's Dems have

[Gass3268]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

[Wiz in Wis]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

[Gass3268]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

[Dr. Arch]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

He's also what the D party needs in Wisconsin right now. Someone who knows how to campaign towards less urban voters and who is not from Dane or MKE county areas. The guy has done so well in his district that the GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2016.

[Blackacre]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

He's also what the D party needs in Wisconsin right now. Someone who knows how to campaign towards less urban voters and who is not from Dane or MKE county areas. The guy has done so well in his district that the GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2016.

He also makes for an interesting test case.

Ron Kind, a Dem who's more centrist and has wall street ties, will share a ballot with Tammy Baldwin, who is neither of those things. I say to the Dems: this is exactly what you want. Put them both on the ballot together, and determine the direction your party should go using the scientific method. How much Baldwin outpolls/underpolls Kind will tell the WI Dems a lot about what direction they should take going forward. Of course, incumbency should be taken into consideration; I expect Baldwin will outpoll Kind for that very reason, but factor that out and you've got some solid data.

[Gass3268]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

He's also what the D party needs in Wisconsin right now. Someone who knows how to campaign towards less urban voters and who is not from Dane or MKE county areas. The guy has done so well in his district that the GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2016.

He also makes for an interesting test case.

Ron Kind, a Dem who's more centrist and has wall street ties, will share a ballot with Tammy Baldwin, who is neither of those things. I say to the Dems: this is exactly what you want. Put them both on the ballot together, and determine the direction your party should go using the scientific method. How much Baldwin outpolls/underpolls Kind will tell the WI Dems a lot about what direction they should take going forward. Of course, incumbency should be taken into consideration; I expect Baldwin will outpoll Kind for that very reason, but factor that out and you've got some solid data.

This is a good thought.

[Blackacre]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

[Deblano]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

[Dr. Arch]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

Weak bench when you discount anyone who's not from MKE or Dane. The current mindset of the local electorate is polarized against the urban areas by sake of being urban and thriving (Walker's strategy). A winning candidate must either overturn that mindset (very hard atm) or prove it wrong as someone from outside those areas (Kind is the only one who can do this right now).

[Deblano]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

Weak bench when you discount anyone who's not from MKE or Dane. The current mindset of the local electorate is polarized against the urban areas by sake of being urban and thriving (Walker's strategy). A winning candidate must either overturn that mindset (very hard atm) or prove it wrong as someone from outside those areas (Kind is the only one who can do this right now).

Have past Democratic nominees since 2010 not been good with appealing to rural voters?