Wisconsin Megathread

[KCDem]

No one cares.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin State Journal endorses Burke after endorsing Walker in 2010 and the 2012 recall.

http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/burke-best-fit-to-reenergize-state-economy/article_705e6745-6bf3-5f40-a301-b774e4b320df.html#.VFY7ivh5Inw.facebook

[The Other Castro]

Wisconsin State Journal endorses Burke after endorsing Walker in 2010 and the 2012 recall.

http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/burke-best-fit-to-reenergize-state-economy/article_705e6745-6bf3-5f40-a301-b774e4b320df.html#.VFY7ivh5Inw.facebook

probably too late

[The Dowager Mod]

Just called for walker.

[Stockdale for Veep]

There are actually Walker-Walker-Obama-Baldwin-Walker voters out there. Idiots.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

There are actually Walker-Walker-Obama-Baldwin-Walker voters out there. Idiots.

Those are some pretty cool people.

[Gass3268]

There are actually Walker-Walker-Obama-Baldwin-Walker voters out there. Idiots.

Those are some pretty cool people.

They are actually Bush-Bush-Obama-Walker/Johnson-Walker-Obama/Baldwin-Walker voters.

[Gass3268]

Everyone knows what happened on the Governor level, but I imagine some might be interested in what happened on the down races.

Attorney General and State Treasurer had essentially the same results as the Governor race, with the Democrat doing a little bit better in the Treasurer contest. Schimel won 51.6%-45.4% and Matt Adamczyk won 48.8%-44.8%. Democrat Doug La Follette pulled out another win in a wave year, winning 50.0-46.3%. I have to imagine his last name is the main reason he's been successful in these elections that have not been good for Democrats, even though he's of no relation to the famous family. This was the only good news for the Democrats the entire night.

There was some discussion before the election that the Democrats would have a chance to take back the State Senate. I personally did not think it was possible, but I thought they could net at least 1 seat. In reality the Republicans had a net gain and the body with be 19-14 Republican. Van Wanggaard won back the newly heavily gerrymandered seat comprised of rural/suburban Kenosha and Racine counties 61.5%-38.5%. Democrats failed to gain SD-17 which was previously held by a very moderate Republican in Dale Schultz. Obama won this district with 57.3% of the vote in 2012, but Republican Howard Marklein won 55.1%-44.9%. Another district Democrats thought they had a chance in was SD-19, which Obama won with 50.01% of the vote in 2012. Incumbent Michael Ellis retired and the Democrats got what appeared to be a very good candidate in Representative Penny Bernard Schaber. Roger Roth ended up winning easily 57.2-42.8%. Democrats also almost lost two districts that should have never been close (SD-25 Obama 56.4% and SD-31 Obama 55.2%).

In the Assembly, it appears that Democrats lost 3 seats (2 seats are still uncalled, but Republicans will probably win). Republicans in all likelihood will have a majority of 63-36. They gained AD-70, which was gerrymandered to an Obama loss of 49.2%, beating incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink 52.8%-47.2%. Democrats also lost AD-75 held by Stephen Smith 54.9%-45.1%. This was excepted as Smith only won in 2012 because his opponent made a Akin/Murdock like rape remark and Obama only got 48.1% in the District in 2012. The most shocking loss imo, was Mandy Wright losing in the 85th District 50.2%-49.8%. This district was actually originally drawn to be as Dem friendly as possible in the area, but signs where showing that this district, like the rest in this region, was slipping from the Democrats as Obama only won here with 52.1% of the vote in 2012. Democrats also failed to win any seats for themselves in the Assembly. This again includes AD-51 in the far western portion of the Madison Metro area, which Obama won 59.8%. Republican Todd Novak beat Democrat Dick Cates 47.5%-47.2% in a seat that Obama almost got 60% of the vote. That's how bad the Democrats night was in Wisconsin!

[publicunofficial]

Burke says she's done with statewide politics, won't run for Governor or Senate.

[Lief 🗽]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

[Gass3268]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

She probably did the best that anyone could do, other than Feingold or maybe Kind. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin is awful and we have little to no bench.

[publicunofficial]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

She did better than expected, all things considered. I don't think anyone could've won this year.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

I always felt Burke was a poor choice. Seriously, democrats, you nominate a school board member for a race that determines whether someone runs for president or not? Really?!? They should have been more intent on courting a top-tier candidate such as Ron Kind or Herb Kohl.

[IceSpear]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

That race was not winnable in this year.

[Maxwell]

For a state that is regularly going for the Democrats in Presidential years, I'm shocked how weak their bench is. Burke may look weak, but she actually ran a good campaign - her ads were far more potent than Walker, and she really had him scared for a while. She might've won if she didn't get swept up in the wave (and that last minute story she got fired for incompetence, but let's not talk about that).

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's the Gubernatorial vote by ward in Madison:


As usual, Burke won every ward. The pattern looks mostly the same as usual with the two nodes of Republicans on campus and the far west side (and to a lesser extent the far east side). However, this time, the campus area is much more Republican than before. The Badger Herald even noticed Walker's unusually strong support. Walker's best ward this time was the 56th ward, consisting of two dorms and the Lucky Building. His second best ward was the 54th ward, which is entirely dorms. The 54th ward has been the most Republican in the past, even though it still moved to the right from 2012.

Walker's margins on the far west side were less impressive though the area remains one of the most Republican in the city.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that Doug La Follette somehow won again. Hahaha.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Obama plz nuke suburban and rural Wisconsin now

[Lief 🗽]

Nah, rural Wisconsin can be okay.



It's suburban Wisconsin that needs to be wiped off the face of the Earth by atomic hellfire.

[ElectionsGuy]

I decided to break this down by various political regions.



Red, Milwaukee County(Pop: 948K)

Burke - 230,997 (62.9%)
Walker - 132,561 (36.1%)

Burke +98,436 votes

Yellow, Milwaukee Suburbs (Pop: 608K)

Walker - 229,966 (72.8%)
Burke - 83,586 (26.5%)

Walker +146,380 votes

Cyan, grouped Kenosha and Racine specifically for bellwether purposes (Pop: 362K)

Walker - 71,272 (52.5%)
Burke - 63,088 (46.4%)

Walker +8,184 votes

Grey, Fox River Valley and areas around it (Pop: 823K)

Walker - 202,741 (58.8%)
Burke - 137,876 (40.0%)

Walker +64,865

Slate Blue, Exurban and rural areas around the suburbs (Pop: 492K)

Walker - 129,708 (63.1%)
Burke - 73,323 (35.7%)

Walker +56,385

Teal, Dane County (Pop: 487K)

Burke - 175,604 (69.7%)
Walker - 73,587 (29.2%)

Burke +102,017 votes

Green, Southwestern Wisconsin outside of Madison (Pop: 478K)

Burke - 96,076 (52.3%)
Walker - 85,144 (46.3%)

Burke +10,932 votes

Purple, Central and Western Wisconsin (Pop: 580K)

Walker - 121,960 (51.9%)
Burke - 109,861 (46.8%)

Walker +11,099 votes

Blue, Northern Wisconsin (Pop: 914K)

Walker - 212,223 (57.5%)
Burke - 151,144 (41.0%)

Walker +61,079 votes

Overall: Walker +137,607 votes

[Gass3268]

Good work ElectionsGuy!

I don't know if I would group the counties the same way, but it does show what the two sides need to do to win. Obama won the state in 2008 by winning every region but the Milwaukee Suburbs and the Milwaukee Exurbs. However in a much closer race in 2012, we see what a Democrat needs to do to win. Dane and Milwaukee Counties will always be there for them, especially in the hyper partisan environment that we are currently in. They then need get decent margins in Southwestern Wisconsin (better than Burke did) and win the Central-West and Southeast (Kenosha/Racine) region (unlike Burke). The final thing that needs to happen is the Democrat needs to keep the margins close in the North (an old Democratic region that is moving away, other than the Lake Superior shoreline which is more like Northeast Minneosta) and the Fox River Valley (old Republican stronghold that has gotten somewhat more competitive). Obviously the scenario is reversed for a Republican and that is exactly what Walker did in all three elections, do a varying degree.

[Maxwell]

wow those Milwaukee suburbs really carried Walker's margin.

[Gass3268]

wow those Milwaukee suburbs really carried Walker's margin.

The thing is those margins can't carry the state for Republicans. Dane + Milwaukee = WOW counties + Exurban Counties in almost every election. So in almost every election those four regions with wash each other out. That's why it is the rest of the state that determines who wins. This is why Walker has won 3 times and Obama has won twice.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Yellow, Milwaukee Suburbs (Pop: 608K)

Walker - 229,966 (72.8%)
Burke - 83,586 (26.5%)

Walker +146,380 votes

Overall: Walker +137,607 votes

Fire up the B-52s, boys.

[TJ in Oregon]

The area that really stands out for Walker is the Fox Valley. Brown and Outagamie are kind of swing counties, but Walker won them by huge margins.

He also did well in the North Woods. Madison, MKE, the WOW Counties, and East-Central Wisconsin all voted as they normally do.