Wisconsin Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

Totally agreed. I think this would be a better test if Kander were running instead of McCaskill, though. McCaskill (like Blunt, in many ways) has her own issues and is really just a terrible fit for her state. But generally speaking it does seem to be the case that more and more voters are rejecting "moderate" candidates or don't really care that they are moderates (think of Mark Kirk, Evan Bayh, etc.).

Of course there's also the possibility that both Kind and Baldwin lose (which would probably mean that WI has pulled a reverse VA on Dems) or that they both win (which would likely mean that 2018 is a big Democratic wave) by somewhat similar margins. But if anyone can win in WI in a Trump midterm, it's Baldwin. A Baldwin vs. Hovde race will be fascinating to watch, as Hovde basically resembles Ron Johnson and Baldwin can fire up the progressive base. WI is quite a fascinating state politically.

[Dr. Arch]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

Weak bench when you discount anyone who's not from MKE or Dane. The current mindset of the local electorate is polarized against the urban areas by sake of being urban and thriving (Walker's strategy). A winning candidate must either overturn that mindset (very hard atm) or prove it wrong as someone from outside those areas (Kind is the only one who can do this right now).

Have past Democratic nominees since 2010 not been good with appealing to rural voters?

Pretty much. The urban areas are not enough to carry the state. Green Bay doesn't vote like the typical city.

A winning D coalition involves the SW + NW of the state + Dane + MKE + Kenosha + Menominee + Racine counties. Local D candidates have not been able to get that coalition going, and Obama over killed with the Central West to West parts of the state.

If a D candidate appeals to the eastern part of the state, they lose ground in Dane and its surrounding areas, which is counterproductive.

I don't know how Democrats can get that coalition going, but they have to find a way. They could also come up with something entirely new, but I wouldn't know how to get to that point either.

[MT Treasurer]

^Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the problem basically that Democrats who are doing well in the WOW counties usually underperform significantly in the rural areas (Clinton) and that Democrats who are doing well in the traditionally Democratic rural parts of the state are suffering losses in the WOW counties (Feingold), right? Isn't this somewhat similar to the problem the VA GOP has - what appeals to rural and Southwest VA hurts you in NoVA/Richmond/etc. and vice versa.

[Dr. Arch]

^Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the problem basically that Democrats who are doing well in the WOW counties usually underperform significantly in the rural areas (Clinton) and that Democrats who are doing well in the traditionally Democratic rural parts of the state are suffering losses in the WOW counties (Feingold), right? Isn't this somewhat similar to the problem the VA GOP has - what appeals to rural and Southwest VA hurts you in NoVA/Richmond/etc. and vice versa.

WOW counties are pretty much always 55-60%+ GOP (Trump being the exception for obvious reasons); the biggest issues are convincing voters in the western side of the state and keeping turnout up in MKE and Dane, which are counteractive goals.

Walker's divide has worked fantastically.

[Blackacre]

I only see him beating Walker in a big Democratic wave year. But then again, maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning statewide than in his old district?

Also, I agree with Flying Spenstar. It's the same reason why someone like Ron Johnson did better than Tommy Thompson in WI. It's not really a moderate state by any means.

If Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin share a ballot, and Kind significantly outperforms Baldwin, or does about the same (considering Baldwin has the advantage of incumbency and Kind does not) then the mode of thinking that WI isn't a moderate state needs to be challenged, and that's very good to know.

If, on the other hand, Baldwin does significantly better than Kind, then your conventional wisdom holds. And I really want to find out. It would be the equivalent of McCaskill surviving but Donnelly and Heitkamp getting defeated, a blow to the way we think about these states and these politicians.

Totally agreed. I think this would be a better test if Kander were running instead of McCaskill, though. McCaskill (like Blunt, in many ways) has her own issues and is really just a terrible fit for her state. But generally speaking it does seem to be the case that more and more voters are rejecting "moderate" candidates or don't really care that they are moderates (think of Mark Kirk, Evan Bayh, etc.).

Of course there's also the possibility that both Kind and Baldwin lose (which would probably mean that WI has pulled a reverse VA on Dems) or that they both win (which would likely mean that 2018 is a big Democratic wave) by somewhat similar margins. But if anyone can win in WI in a Trump midterm, it's Baldwin. A Baldwin vs. Hovde race will be fascinating to watch, as Hovde basically resembles Ron Johnson and Baldwin can fire up the progressive base. WI is quite a fascinating state politically.

On McCaskill: if Kander were running instead of her, then it wouldn't be a surprise if he outdid Donnelly/Heitkamp/Manchin

On Kind and Baldwin: If they both get similar margins, win or lose, then it probably means that Wisconsin straight-ticketed its 2018 unless the candidates got different margins in different parts of the state. I'd still chalk that up as a win for Kind though, as he has the harder job. He's trying to take out an incumbent, while Baldwin IS the incumbent trying to hold her job.

However, I can also see a scenario where Baldwin and Kind both win outside the context of a wave. It would mean that the state straight-ticketed, and in a neutral year, probably makes for a reversion to the mean type election, with Republicans gaining Senate seats in low hanging fruit states, Democrats gaining some house seats but not enough for a majority, and Dems making large gains at the state level. (because they hit rock bottom in 2016 and have little to go but upward) TD's timeline has this exact scenario play out (though not with Kind as the gubernatorial candidate)

[MT Treasurer]

Whoa, I just checked the results... Johnson won the WOW counties by 38 points (68%-30%), 46 points (72%-26%) and 32 points (65%-33%).

Trump only won them by 27 points (60%-33%), 40 points (67%-27%) and 19 points (56%-37%). Johnson also outperformed Trump by quite a bit in Green Bay and Milwaukee. The difference in Madison was negligible. All of that was more than enough to make up for the fact that he underperformed Trump in rural/western WI. Johnson still did much better in those areas than he did in 2010, though.

[Kingpoleon]

What about someone like Jonathan Brostoff or Marina Dimitrijevic at the top, with Chris Abele on the bottom? Brostoff represents Larson's faction, Dimitrijevic represents Gwen Moore and Tom Barrett, while Chris Abele is obviously appealing to moderates.

[henster]

I feel like 'its time for a change' applies to state elections as well. Third term Governors are rare especially in purple states.

[MasterJedi]

What about someone like Jonathan Brostoff or Marina Dimitrijevic at the top, with Chris Abele on the bottom? Brostoff represents Larson's faction, Dimitrijevic represents Gwen Moore and Tom Barrett, while Chris Abele is obviously appealing to moderates.

You don't want Queen Marina or anyone from the county board. Useless the entire lot of them.

[Koharu]

Any thought's on today's state superintendent election? I didn't go back too far in the thread, so I'm not sure if I missed discussion about it. Do folks think Evers will at least stay on the ballot?

[Dr. Arch]

Any thought's on today's state superintendent election? I didn't go back too far in the thread, so I'm not sure if I missed discussion about it. Do folks think Evers will at least stay on the ballot?

I think he will. Gonna go vote for him in a couple.

[Drew]

Any thought's on today's state superintendent election? I didn't go back too far in the thread, so I'm not sure if I missed discussion about it. Do folks think Evers will at least stay on the ballot?

I would think (and hope) that Evers will survive, considering that the conservative votes will be split among Humphries and Holtz.  There is a left-wing write in candidate, but I wouldn't expect him to get much.  IDK if there's been any polling suggesting which candidates will advance.

If Evers does get primaried, or loses in the general, it's another nail in the coffin for the WI Dems (even if this is a non partisan race).

[MasterJedi]

I imagine Evers will at least get to the second round and if I had my guess he'll probably win. I'll be out voting for him and the local school board race after work.

[Gass3268]

Seeing on Twitter that Madison could get to 20% turnout. Would shatter the prior record of 10% turnout in a Spring election primary.

[Koharu]

Seeing on Twitter that Madison could get to 20% turnout. Would shatter the prior record of 10% turnout in a Spring election primary.

There's a huge push here among folks who attended the Women's March to go vote. It'll be interesting to see those numbers!

[Pandaguineapig]

Evers won with 65% in 2013 and this is a non-partisan race I'm predicting he'll get more than 60% this time as well

[Pandaguineapig]

Evers won with 65% in 2013 and this is a non-partisan race I'm predicting he'll get more than 60% this time as well

Is Evers a Walker/Koch tool?

No, he has always been backed by democrats and teachers unions

[Wiz in Wis]

So far Evers is winning around 60%, with Holtz clearly advancing as Humphries falls apart.

[Gass3268]

Evers could get to 70%

[MasterJedi]

Evers could get to 70%

At 35% in he's at 69% and has over a 70,000 vote lead. He must be demolishing in the cities and winning the burbs handily too.

[Drew]

Evers and Holtz advance.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-lowell-holtz-advance-in-state-superintendent-race/article_b4a02654-0402-521a-91bf-c863d488c1be.html

[Drew]

Evers and Holtz advance.  Evers had 60% even before Dane had been counted.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-lowell-holtz-advance-in-state-superintendent-race/article_b4a02654-0402-521a-91bf-c863d488c1be.html

[Babeuf]

Good showing by Evers. Really poor one by Humphries.

[Mr.Phips]

Evers and Holtz advance.  Evers had 60% even before Dane had been counted.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-lowell-holtz-advance-in-state-superintendent-race/article_b4a02654-0402-521a-91bf-c863d488c1be.html

Why do they waste money on a runoff when a candidate has 50%+?

[MasterJedi]

Evers and Holtz advance.  Evers had 60% even before Dane had been counted.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-lowell-holtz-advance-in-state-superintendent-race/article_b4a02654-0402-521a-91bf-c863d488c1be.html

Why do they waste money on a runoff when a candidate has 50%+?

Because turnout is nonexistent. Turnout in April will still be crap but you'll still get a lot more voters out then.