Wisconsin Megathread

[Dr. Arch]

Any updates on Soglin's potential entrance into the Governor's race?

Nope, and I hope there isn't any.

[mcmikk]

Any updates on Soglin's potential entrance into the Governor's race?

Nope, and I hope there isn't any.

Being a longtime mayor and a "muh Madison libruhl" would sink him instantly.

[Dr. Arch]

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That's actually pretty bad for Walker.

[Holmes]

That's two recent polls with Walker's numbers underwater. Maybe he's ot as invincible as some people think.

[MT Treasurer]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016, and Marquette showed much better numbers for Walker. He definitely isn't "finished", lol.

[Pollster]

Has Russ Feingold ruled this race out?

[Gass3268]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016, and Marquette showed much better numbers for Walker. He definitely isn't "finished", lol.

Even if you add 5 points for potential hidden Republicans, its still terrible. Also the Marquette poll was before the $3,000,000,000 Foxconn boondoggle.

[Dr. Arch]

Has Russ Feingold ruled this race out?

Not to my knowledge, but we have good candidates in the running or mulling to run already, namely Vinehout and Evers.

[Virginiá]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

[PragmaticPopulist]

In the Marist Poll of PA, MI, and WI, Trump is furthest in negative territory in WI. That probably won't bode well for the WI GOP. Maybe 2018 will be like 2010, where WI went from a D trifecta to and R trifecta in a single election, except it goes from an R trifecta to a D trifecta.

[Gass3268]

In the Marist Poll of PA, MI, and WI, Trump is furthest in negative territory in WI. That probably won't bode well for the WI GOP. Maybe 2018 will be like 2010, where WI went from a D trifecta to and R trifecta in a single election, except it goes from an R trifecta to a D trifecta.

As much as I'd like to dream, that's extreamly unlikely.

[Kamala]

Ugh, if only Vinehout hadn't been in that car crash in 2014. She'd have been a much much better candidate than the Some Lady Mary Burke, and could've replicated Tom Wolf's victory, especially thanks to her appeal to western Wisconsin.

Then she would probably cruise to reelection in 2018, everything being the same, and probably be on veep shortlists or even an outside presidential campaign in 2020.

[Xing]

That's two recent polls with Walker's numbers underwater. Maybe he's ot as invincible as some people think.

He's obviously not safe. If 2018 is a bad year for Republicans and Democrats land a decent candidate (granted neither of those are given), muh "WI GOP machine" isn't going to be enough to save him.

[MT Treasurer]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

[mcmikk]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

I'm still bitter about Ron Johnson...

[pbrower2a]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

I'm still bitter about Ron Johnson...

One of the best Senators money can buy -- an empty suit who believes that no human suffering is excessive so long as it enriches and pampers elites.

The 2016 election made me regret that I am an American.

[Dr. Arch]

Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

I'm still bitter about Ron Johnson...

Same :/

[MasterJedi]

Evers declaring his campaign for Governor so it's official. Vinehout is the best choice IMO but he's not a bad one either, he's not that offensive to anyone.

[windjammer]

Evers declaring his campaign for Governor so it's official. Vinehout is the best choice IMO but he's not a bad one either, he's not that offensive to anyone.

She's going to run or that is unlikely?

[MasterJedi]

Evers declaring his campaign for Governor so it's official. Vinehout is the best choice IMO but he's not a bad one either, he's not that offensive to anyone.

She's going to run or that is unlikely?

She has an exploratory committee and I've heard there are signs for her in Madison area, I'd say she'll run but not official yet.

[Gass3268]

Evers declaring his campaign for Governor so it's official. Vinehout is the best choice IMO but he's not a bad one either, he's not that offensive to anyone.

She's going to run or that is unlikely?

She has an exploratory committee and I've heard there are signs for her in Madison area, I'd say she'll run but not official yet.

I think she runs too, but Wachs running raises some doubts for me. I don't know if he would run if Vinehout was considering their territory overlaps.

[windjammer]

Has Walker become more vulnerable?

[Gass3268]

Some PPP polls by State Senate District:









Walker even or popular in Central Wisconsin and unpopular in Western Wisconsin. Vinehout or Wachs would be a great to exploit that unpopularity in that region.

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah, Wachs is a surprise, but I still think Evers is the best shot even though Vinehout has a fair bit of excitement behind her even though she hasn't declared yet, officially that is.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Some PPP polls by State Senate District:









Walker even or popular in Central Wisconsin and unpopular in Western Wisconsin. Vinehout or Wachs would be a great to exploit that unpopularity in that region.

Interesting, because Western Wisconsin has been drifting rightward over the past decade. It could trickle into congressional races, making Ron Kind in WI-03 safe (I suspected the NRCC would give him a pass anyway), and could make Sean Duffy in WI-07 vulnerable.