Wisconsin Megathread

[ElectionsGuy]

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

Are you sure about that? Surely Ron Johnson is too far right for Wisconsin and he will face very tough challenges, but weaker than Mark Kirk in very blue Illinois... I heavily doubt that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dale Schultz, the Senator in the D+4 seat, is retiring.

That's going to be a hard one to hold. This is Southwestern Wisconsin.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm getting this ad constantly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrL7jdCEaLc

[ElectionsGuy]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

[ElectionsGuy]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

Oh, well I still don't expect anything to change. GOP already has 3 candidates in the race, any clear frontrunner?

[ElectionsGuy]

http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-politics/on-politics-brett-hulsey-plans-to-hand-out-kkk-hoods/article_ba0539d0-1d24-58d7-882a-415e6715eb95.html?mobile_touch=true

What an asshole.

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[ElectionsGuy]

The most ironic thing is she's on the Madison Board of Education.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looking forward to watching the gubernatorial debate tonight.

http://m.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democrats-hit-candidate-schimel-for-statement-on-interracial-marriage-b99367685z1-278580281.html

Yeah, Schimel's a damn joke.

[ElectionsGuy]

I watched the full debate with my parents. Both repeated talking points, nonsense slogans like "giveaways to the top and rich" or "protecting hard working tax payers of Wisconsin". Topics discussed were Minimum Wage, Act 10, Full Term, Medicaid expansion, the Budget, Jobs plan, Voter ID (with the recent decision), Abortion, and Energy/Environment. I think Burke did good in the beginning of the debate, while Walker did better near the end of the debate. I think Walker won, because I tend to agree or have a closer position to him on most issues, but it really contestable whether that debate would impact the election. Probably not. Burke was starting to slip near the end, and Walker slipped in the abortion and voter ID questions (the least relevant part of the debate anyway).

There's another one next week. On a separate note, I don't think I'll watch a debate with my parents again, they literally think Burke is a socialist.

[ElectionsGuy]

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/09/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-republican-congress-quotes

Disgusting...

This guy is the worst of the worst a Republican can get. Unbelievable.

[ElectionsGuy]

I decided to break this down by various political regions.



Red, Milwaukee County(Pop: 948K)

Burke - 230,997 (62.9%)
Walker - 132,561 (36.1%)

Burke +98,436 votes

Yellow, Milwaukee Suburbs (Pop: 608K)

Walker - 229,966 (72.8%)
Burke - 83,586 (26.5%)

Walker +146,380 votes

Cyan, grouped Kenosha and Racine specifically for bellwether purposes (Pop: 362K)

Walker - 71,272 (52.5%)
Burke - 63,088 (46.4%)

Walker +8,184 votes

Grey, Fox River Valley and areas around it (Pop: 823K)

Walker - 202,741 (58.8%)
Burke - 137,876 (40.0%)

Walker +64,865

Slate Blue, Exurban and rural areas around the suburbs (Pop: 492K)

Walker - 129,708 (63.1%)
Burke - 73,323 (35.7%)

Walker +56,385

Teal, Dane County (Pop: 487K)

Burke - 175,604 (69.7%)
Walker - 73,587 (29.2%)

Burke +102,017 votes

Green, Southwestern Wisconsin outside of Madison (Pop: 478K)

Burke - 96,076 (52.3%)
Walker - 85,144 (46.3%)

Burke +10,932 votes

Purple, Central and Western Wisconsin (Pop: 580K)

Walker - 121,960 (51.9%)
Burke - 109,861 (46.8%)

Walker +11,099 votes

Blue, Northern Wisconsin (Pop: 914K)

Walker - 212,223 (57.5%)
Burke - 151,144 (41.0%)

Walker +61,079 votes

Overall: Walker +137,607 votes

[ElectionsGuy]

Nice work Miles!

I believe Washburn County on the PVI map is wrong, it never went above 55% R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dave has posted the map of the 2014 gubernatorial election by municipality to the Atlas blog.

[ElectionsGuy]

Holy cow! Did Walker actually win the city of Green Bay!?

I almost forgot, but I tabulated the results of the biggest cities in this thread.

[ElectionsGuy]

Feingold leaving State.

That title made me think he was leaving Wisconsin.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hopefully they dont throw in exemptions for republican leaning unions like they were talking about doing.

Will exclude police and fire unions

I'm generally positive about RTW, but these stupid exemptions kind of bug me. Why not be consistent?

[ElectionsGuy]

Feingold lost because he was a bad Senator and Johnson ran one of the best campaigns ever.  I wonder if Johnson can replicate some of that 2010 perfection.  It is hard to tell because Johnson isn't a politician and has acted as such since he won and he may have been the perfect man at the perfect time, not a amazing campaigner ...at anytime.   

Corporate money shouted in 2010 and 2014. It won.

It's the Koch syndicate that managed the general fight to transform the USA into a plutocratic oligarchy. Right-wing politicians who obeyed the money won. Now that more Americans know what is stake things can be different in 2016. Mediocrities win in wave elections and can get ousted in the next election.

They had better be, or America might be 'exceptional' mostly in having life-threatening poverty within the First World.

Because its not like Democrats accept corporate money, having lobbyist influences, or obey special interests. These things only happened in 2010 and 2014, when evil Republicans won massively.

Having elections for judges is the worst.

It really is. Unfortunate.

[ElectionsGuy]

We're all assuming that those numbers will stay like that. They can easily go back up after a year or so in time for his re-election. However he is ed if he does nothing about this.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not good for Bradley in April, certainly depends on R vs D turnout in the presidential primary, but the total D leaning vs R leaning vote here was a 55/45 split. A Bradley defeat would be a total blow to Scott Walker.

Side Note: This was the first election where I actually voted. A pretty lame first vote

[ElectionsGuy]

So, I'm still undecided about this Supreme Court race. It seems like all of the discourse over the past few weeks has just been hit pieces and discussing the past. My initial inclination was that I'm likely to vote for Bradley, but I'm not exactly thrilled that Bradley voted to increase the power of police searches to private property without the owner's permission, for example. Anybody know where I can get a breakdown of where these two stand in their policy outlook and how they would vote in certain cases? Or has that been entirely ignored this season?

Anyway, Kloppenberg is probably going to win this, 54/46 I think.

[ElectionsGuy]

http://fox6now.com/election-results/

This is a good source for local races (scroll down)

[ElectionsGuy]

52% in

Bradley: 574,432 (54%)
Kloppenburg: 482,577 (46%)

Also, Abele and Barrett, the two incumbents in Milwaukee County and the city of Milwaukee, have won.

[ElectionsGuy]

Good to know Wisconsin doesn't care about AIDS victims.

^

lol. A horrible comment 24 years ago is TOTALLY relevant to being a justice on a state supreme court. Totally.

[ElectionsGuy]

If I had to say who wins I will say Walker in a tough fight but there's very valid reasons to believe this election won't be like his last three and odds are he will have to overcome a Democratic favored environment.

[ElectionsGuy]

I do think these elections are indicative of a Democratic national environment however I think the strength is being overstated. In these April elections the turnout is skewed to the most motivated base of people. We can see that clearly with the insane results in Dane county. I do think Walker is in serious trouble but unlikely we will see blowouts like this for the Governor or Senate race in 2018.

I think the most disappointing result for me was the referendum. Weird how the state elected the guy who ran on abolishing the treasury department and then years later vote overwhelmingly against such action.