Wisconsin Megathread

[IceSpear]

How very generous of David Koch:

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I don't think the Kochs will let Walker lose, even if they have to spend $100 million for him.

[IceSpear]

First Burke signage I've seen, was today on the atlas forum... lol.  I wonder how much money this trust fund baby, spoiled brat will spend on her campaign.  10 million?  15 million?  I wouldn't mind her wealth if she worked a day in her life.     

I assume you felt the same way about Romney?

[IceSpear]

First Burke signage I've seen, was today on the atlas forum... lol.  I wonder how much money this trust fund baby, spoiled brat will spend on her campaign.  10 million?  15 million?  I wouldn't mind her wealth if she worked a day in her life.     

I assume you felt the same way about Romney?

Noticed I said "worked a day" something the Romney's obviously have. 

I'm not talking about "the Romneys", I'm talking about Willard M. Romney. Remember, your presidential nominee from a year and a half ago? I can understand why you'd like to forget though.

[IceSpear]

Yes, clearly Mitt "if you want to start your own business, asks your parents for money!" Romney became successful from scratch...LOL

[IceSpear]

Mary Burke praises Reagan in new ad.

I'd say this is the best ad so far in this race.

I expected to cringe, but that was actually a great ad. Burke has definitely exceeded my expectations.

[IceSpear]

Mary Burke praises Reagan in new ad.

I'd say this is the best ad so far in this race.

I expected to cringe, but that was actually a great ad. Burke has definitely exceeded my expectations.

Why did you expect to cringe?

I thought it was going to be a "Conservadem/Gotta attract Dem Raygun Democrats" type of praising Reagan.

[IceSpear]

Burke's jobs platform was plagiarized.

Wow. Walsh, Wehby, and now Burke???

This is in no way comparable to Walsh's academic plagiarism. More comparable to when Republicans laughed at Mary Landrieu's website for copy and pasting stuff from Michelle Nunn's like a year ago. In other words, no impact whatsoever.

[IceSpear]

Walker's camp accusing Christie of intentionally under-funding him to get rid of a 2016 rival!

Email from conservative grandee: if Walker loses, it'll be "like when [Christie] didn't show up in [PA] for Romney"

Robert Costa also reports on his twitter that Burke is preparing to go nuclear in the final 10 days, hitting Walker hard on his scandals and the 2011 union saga.

Looks like Burke's got the wind in her sails now! Her closing ad is really fantastic IMO. Manages to tie all the themes of her and others' attacks on Walker together.

Sounds like Walker and his crew are hitting the panic button. That's not an accusation you throw around 11 days before an election you think you're going to win.

Looks like Walker's campaign may be the George Washington bridge of 2014. Serves them right for keeping a corrupt puffer fish as the RGA chairman.

[IceSpear]

^ Yep, if I were a Republican donor I'd be pretty pissed Christie is sending millions to Corbett while underfunding Walker.

No, it's critically important that Corbett loses by 10 rather than 20 and that Kasich wins by 30 rather than 20. Walker losing by 1 instead of winning by 1? That's just not as high on the priority list.

It seems the tub of lard is as incompetent at managing money as he is at managing his staff.

[IceSpear]

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/09/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-republican-congress-quotes

Disgusting...

I forgot Grothman did actually win the primary, sh*t. This guy is going to be Wisconsin's Bachmann.

Obama won the district in 2008, so hopefully he won't be around nearly as long as Bachmann was.

[IceSpear]

The Walker-Christie feud continues to heat up!

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Walker's really not been acting like someone who thinks he's going to win the past couple of days.

If he does win re-election, Walker is going to be looking to take some pounds of flesh off Christie in the primary debates (no pun intended).

[IceSpear]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

That race was not winnable in this year.

[IceSpear]

Some Stronger Rumblings That Feingold May Run Against Johnson In 2016

Spectacular news!

[IceSpear]

Feingold leaving State.

Is it...is it happening?!

[IceSpear]

Walker will sign the RTW bill that will be on his desk shortly.

I'm surprised it took this long. No difference between the parties though. Mary Burke/Hillary Clinton would do the same thing!

[IceSpear]

Walker prepping to run for a third term and keeping his national options open.

Not so bold prediction: If he runs, he will be re-elected. RIP Wisconsin.

[IceSpear]

Rep. Glenn Grothman says that Voter ID will help Republicans win Wisconsin in November

Good to know they're admitting now that it's about voter suppression.

The PA House Speaker said the same exact thing in 2012. Fat lot of good it did them.

[IceSpear]

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Lol

I bet he'll still be re-elected. #jaded

[IceSpear]

Again measuring the drapes a year out. Governor Burke approves.

IIRC, Burke was always considered the underdog. 

Yeah, Gov. Crist would fit better. Or if you want to stick to WI, Gov. Barret.

[IceSpear]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

[IceSpear]

What are the rough outlines of state legislature offensive opportunities for Democrats?

Dems currently lead the generic legislative ballot 44-41, if that's any indication.

Which means nothing with the current gerrymander. In fact, Democrats had won the legislative race popular vote or lost it narrowly this whole time, and they're down dozens of seats anyways.

Unless SCOTUS rules against partisan gerrymandering and orders the Assembly map redrawn (the effects of which may not be felt until the 2020 election), the real action is in the state Senate, right? Is it conceivable that Democrats could build even a bare majority for themselves if 2018 and 2020 are both favorable to them?

Also, it's worth mentioning that if Democrats did have a wave-like performance in Wisconsin, it could knock out Walker and maybe a row office or two. That would ensure a more fair round of redistricting in 2021-2022.

My prediction is that Walker goes down. I think whichever party wins the Senate race is also winning the Governor's mansion, and since I really can't see Baldwin losing, I can't really see Walker losing either, unless both contests end up razor-thin.

People also said that about the recall though. Yet both Walker and Obama won easily, even with the granny killer on the ticket.

That said, I never really bought that line of reasoning. There was obviously going to be a contingent of voters that may not have liked Walker and/or were not solid supporters, but thought the recall went too far. No doubt that Baldwin/Walker voters would be totally schizophrenic, but it wouldn't be the first nor the last time voters showed that type of schizophrenia. Lol

Personally, I think he's in for the toughest fight of his political career, but is slightly favored. If there does end up being a wave though, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up getting pulled under.

[IceSpear]

I know this isn't a thread for discussing the Senate race, but thoughts on this?

Mostly hype/hot air IMO, but kinda odd how much conservative groups are spending here.

Not much evidence that a few million in ads 10-11 months out from the election will have even a small impact on the result. They are just lighting money on fire. No one is going to remember any of this a month from now, let alone in November.

Early ads did pretty well at destroying the popularity of Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, etc. in 2014.

[IceSpear]

Early ads did pretty well at destroying the popularity of Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, etc. in 2014.

Is there actual evidence that was the (or a major) reason for their defeat, or was it just the case that there were early ads, and it so happened that the race tightened later on, and they lost, so people just assumed it was because of the ads? Looking at the NC polls from 2014, Hagan's weakening in October through election day seems more consistent with an intensifying election where voters started making their minds up. Otherwise not much else seemed to change.

I don't think I've seen a single study that showed political ads really have much impact at all, at least on high-profile races, and when they do, it is short-term only, and wears off within a couple weeks. I used to put a lot more stock into them, but over the past 2 years, it has been really hard to find a very clear-cut instance where they played a notable part.

Well, before the ads they had high approval ratings, and after the ads they had horrible approval ratings. Of course, that could've been due to external events as well, like the political environment worsening for the Democrats, the Obamacare website malfunctioning, etc. I was actually referring to the early attack ads that softened up their approvals, not the mid-late 2014 ads once the campaign season heated up. The damage had already been done by then.

It makes sense to test the waters and see if Baldwin can be softened up considering she lacks a strong personal brand, Walker is seen as the favorite to be re-elected, and it's not like the GOP is lacking in Koch money.

[IceSpear]

Early ads did pretty well at destroying the popularity of Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, etc. in 2014.

Is there actual evidence that was the (or a major) reason for their defeat, or was it just the case that there were early ads, and it so happened that the race tightened later on, and they lost, so people just assumed it was because of the ads? Looking at the NC polls from 2014, Hagan's weakening in October through election day seems more consistent with an intensifying election where voters started making their minds up. Otherwise not much else seemed to change.

I don't think I've seen a single study that showed political ads really have much impact at all, at least on high-profile races, and when they do, it is short-term only, and wears off within a couple weeks. I used to put a lot more stock into them, but over the past 2 years, it has been really hard to find a very clear-cut instance where they played a notable part.

Well, before the ads they had high approval ratings, and after the ads they had horrible approval ratings. Of course, that could've been due to external events as well, like the political environment worsening for the Democrats, the Obamacare website malfunctioning, etc. I was actually referring to the early attack ads that softened up their approvals, not the mid-late 2014 ads once the campaign season heated up. The damage had already been done by then.

It makes sense to test the waters and see if Baldwin can be softened up considering she lacks a strong personal brand, Walker is seen as the favorite to be re-elected, and it's not like the GOP is lacking in Koch money.

Is there a reason Walker is favored given his low approvals and the national environment? Is it his war chest and a split D field? Those alone don’t sound compelling enough IMO

Probably that plus him winning 3 times and Wisconsin swinging to the right. Plus muh incumbency of course.

[IceSpear]

I wonder how many Walker/Baldwin voters there's going to be in the WOW counties. I'm also curious if there's going to end up being more there or in the rurals.