Wisconsin Megathread

[Dr. Arch]

Walker says he's planning to run for reelection, won't run for POTUS in 2020.

[Dr. Arch]

If Hillary wins, we won't get rid of this fool. Bad!

We probably still won't. I just want to close my eyes.

[Dr. Arch]

There's a candidate already starting a campaign for the 2018 gov race here. He has some good ideas, including a high speed rail that would connect from Chicago through WI to the Twin Cities.

Anyone heard of him before?
http://bobharlow.net

[Dr. Arch]

Is there any chances for Russ Feingold to change track, if he is energetic enough to go through the trauma of two consecutive defeats of his senate seat?

Zero

Possible future Secretary of State in the next Democratic administration would be a good place for him.

If there is a next Democratic administration.

[Dr. Arch]

Spring primary filing deadline today.  Justice Ziegler of WI Supreme Court unopposed.  Another blow to WI Dems.

Meanwhile, State Superintendent Evers has two conservative challengers.

Link:  http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/two-challenge-superintendent-tony-evers-supreme-court-justice-annette-ziegler/article_8cd385cd-a593-5aac-8e57-f00b97e54ef4.html

lol, what a disaster.

[Dr. Arch]

The only Wisconsin Democrats that could beat Walker or Kleefisch or Duffy in 2018 is Tom Nelson or Ron Kind. Kind is a moderate Democrat that could appeal to Walker voters who are disappointed with his second term.

Jesus Christ...I just googled Ron Kind because I've never heard of him before and the guy is legit the most alpha male looking politician I've ever seen

He is so entrenched in his district that the GOP didn't even bother running a candidate against him. More so, his district is the district a D candidate needs alongside Dane and MKE to carry the state.

[Dr. Arch]

Court order says that legislature/gov must redraw legislative districts before 2018 election.  State plans to appeal to SCOTUS.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/judges-to-state-redraw-legislative-districts-before-election/article_bff10235-7420-57f0-a185-c0f8939ca9b4.html

I hope this goes through because the gerrymander here is insane.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker moving hard to the center by proposing $649 million more in school funding in the state's budget.


This is a big departure from the last budget that cut public school funding, which along with his campaign for President was one of the key causes for his approval rating drop.

He's the very definition of political slime.

[Dr. Arch]

Who is going tm run for the democrats?

At this point? Literally no one. The strongest candidate barely won re-election to the state senate. Need to pray that Trump and Walker do more awful things for the state to piss enough people off or the Dems have no one.

I assume Kind is not even thinking about it.

[Dr. Arch]

I've been saying it for a long time. If anyone picks up anything in Wisconsin right now, it's Kind.

[Dr. Arch]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

1) I never called him a right-winger
2) These are votes since Trump has been President, it would be better to look at his entire Congressional record.
3) He is one of the most Wall Street friendly Democrats in the Midwest.

He's also what the D party needs in Wisconsin right now. Someone who knows how to campaign towards less urban voters and who is not from Dane or MKE county areas. The guy has done so well in his district that the GOP didn't even bother challenging him in 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

Weak bench when you discount anyone who's not from MKE or Dane. The current mindset of the local electorate is polarized against the urban areas by sake of being urban and thriving (Walker's strategy). A winning candidate must either overturn that mindset (very hard atm) or prove it wrong as someone from outside those areas (Kind is the only one who can do this right now).

[Dr. Arch]

There seems to be a stunning lack of potentials that can run competitively against Walker if Ron Kind is the only person we can come up with.

Walker's past opponents have been stunningly weak Democrats.

Weak bench when you discount anyone who's not from MKE or Dane. The current mindset of the local electorate is polarized against the urban areas by sake of being urban and thriving (Walker's strategy). A winning candidate must either overturn that mindset (very hard atm) or prove it wrong as someone from outside those areas (Kind is the only one who can do this right now).

Have past Democratic nominees since 2010 not been good with appealing to rural voters?

Pretty much. The urban areas are not enough to carry the state. Green Bay doesn't vote like the typical city.

A winning D coalition involves the SW + NW of the state + Dane + MKE + Kenosha + Menominee + Racine counties. Local D candidates have not been able to get that coalition going, and Obama over killed with the Central West to West parts of the state.

If a D candidate appeals to the eastern part of the state, they lose ground in Dane and its surrounding areas, which is counterproductive.

I don't know how Democrats can get that coalition going, but they have to find a way. They could also come up with something entirely new, but I wouldn't know how to get to that point either.

[Dr. Arch]

^Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the problem basically that Democrats who are doing well in the WOW counties usually underperform significantly in the rural areas (Clinton) and that Democrats who are doing well in the traditionally Democratic rural parts of the state are suffering losses in the WOW counties (Feingold), right? Isn't this somewhat similar to the problem the VA GOP has - what appeals to rural and Southwest VA hurts you in NoVA/Richmond/etc. and vice versa.

WOW counties are pretty much always 55-60%+ GOP (Trump being the exception for obvious reasons); the biggest issues are convincing voters in the western side of the state and keeping turnout up in MKE and Dane, which are counteractive goals.

Walker's divide has worked fantastically.

[Dr. Arch]

Any thought's on today's state superintendent election? I didn't go back too far in the thread, so I'm not sure if I missed discussion about it. Do folks think Evers will at least stay on the ballot?

I think he will. Gonna go vote for him in a couple.

[Dr. Arch]

First shred of good local government news since a long time.

[Dr. Arch]

Turnout in Dane County is absolutely massive. So far, there have been about 50k votes cast in Dane (which is not yet all in), compared to 25k in Waukesha, which is all in.  Evers is also getting around 47% in Waukesha, and over 80% in Dane.

Yeah, it was near midterm turnout in some places. The Madison area residents have already  had it with Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

I made this for giggles... May have an error or two.

Red Evers, Blue Holtz.

That's a landslide in Wisconsin if I've ever seen one.

[Dr. Arch]

We wanted a Gubernatorial candidate? Well we have one now:

Bob Harlow, last ran for US House in California in the 18th District. 

https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Harlow

One of his main points is a bullet train, which I do like:

http://thepointeruwsp.com/2017/02/03/bullet-train-proposal-races-for-voter-attention/

Yeah, I talked about him earlier, but people say he's a perennial candidate. No real chatter on him has picked up yet so he has to get to work asap.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker is running for a third term in a midterm where his party is in power with a likely unpopular President, Ds appear to be energized they should go all out. There is a real thing as voter fatigue after two terms people want change in any state.

Never doubt the Wisconsin Democrat's ability to screw up a good opportunity.

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

Complete unknown even to most in Dane County. In theory, yes, a CE is a good stepping stone, but not from Dane County in the current local environment. There is no bench at this point. Anyone else is way below Kind, tier-wise. Pocan could be good, but he runs into the same Dane county vs the rest of the state problem.

I honestly don't know at this point.

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

Complete unknown even to most in Dane County. In theory, yes, a CE is a good stepping stone, but not from Dane County in the current local environment. There is no bench at this point. Anyone else is way below Kind, tier-wise. Pocan could be good, but he runs into the same Dane county vs the rest of the state problem.

I honestly don't know at this point.

That didn't stop Tammy Baldwin.

Vinehout is probably the best bet however.

Perhaps. We're still too far away to tell. The Dems need to come up with a better strategy for the state. Maybe the change in leadership will help. We'll see.

[Dr. Arch]

I personally think the idea that "THIS IS THE ONLY MAN/WOMAN WHO CAN WIN" when it comes to elections is both unnecessary and harmful for Democrats. I don't know much about WI politics, but I find it also impossible to believe that Kind is the only democrat in the entire state who can beat someone like Walker. Also I genuinely think it's a self fulfilling prophecy when you think a competitive candidate is going to lose--volunteers dry up, people are less likely to donate, etc.

If Trump is sufficiently unpopular, I think people are going to vote against the GOP anyway, regardless of who is the nominee. Nominees do matter, but at the end of the day most people are just going to notice the "D" or the "R" next to the name.

The GOP has been in control of the state for almost a decade, with almost every election resulting in more control--2016 included. Walker's strategy to polarize the state for political gain worked. The Democratic bench is largely limited to places where the polarization is highest.

Honestly, it looks bleak.

[Dr. Arch]

Cullen out.

Walker gonna run unopposed.

He won't. We just don't know yet.