Wisconsin Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-politics/on-politics-brett-hulsey-plans-to-hand-out-kkk-hoods/article_ba0539d0-1d24-58d7-882a-415e6715eb95.html?mobile_touch=true

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

First Burke signage I've seen, was today on the atlas forum... lol.  I wonder how much money this trust fund baby, spoiled brat will spend on her campaign.  10 million?  15 million?  I wouldn't mind her wealth if she worked a day in her life.     

I assume you felt the same way about Romney?

Noticed I said "worked a day" something the Romney's obviously have. 

Fair enough, so you must really hate Paul Ryan?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Prosecutors allege Scott Walker was "at the center of a criminal scheme"

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/federal-judge-unseals-hundreds-of-documents-in-john-doe-probe-b99295017z1-263839791.html

Glorious news!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://m.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democrats-hit-candidate-schimel-for-statement-on-interracial-marriage-b99367685z1-278580281.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Obama is coming to Milwaukee today to campaign for Burke. This is the start of a 6 state swing that includes Michigan, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/obama-2014-elections_n_6062152.html

RIP Burke

Don't worry, it isn't Michelle Obama.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It wasn't that he ran a weak campaign in 2010, it's that he ran his same campaign of being true to himself and not taking corporate money. I feel like he would get a great deal of criticism if he went back on that against Ron Johnson.

So his pride did him in

I wouldn't say pride, I'd say principle. And honestly, I feel Feingold can't really go below 46% of the vote because of that pledge. I admire him for it, taking a principled stand and taking it seriously. I wish more people did that.

This

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Clarke would probably lose in a midterm year by about 15 points (maybe 8-12 if it's a 2014-level Republican wave and he's facing a weak Democrat).  I could easily see him losing in a Presidential year by 18-20% if he's facing a strong Democratic candidate or it is a mildy Democratic-leaning cycle (ex: 2012-type environment).  I think the fact that we've have had two large, back-to-back Republican waves has caused some folks to mistake 2014 (or even 2010) style midterms as the norm.  Just as Republicans had a bonafide wave election in 2016 despite it being a Presidential year (and one that could easily be no more than a fluke).  Regardless of what happens in the Senate, given how reliant their house majority is on gerrymandering and how many Governorships are up, the Republicans should be terrified by the prospect of a potential 2018 Democratic wave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

^Grothman.. yeah, probably. Clarke? Nah. There aren't many Republicans who would get slaughtered in a midterm year in Wisconsin.

Clarke would probably lose in a midterm year by about 15 points (maybe 8-12 if it's a 2014-level Republican wave and he's facing a weak Democrat).  I could easily see him losing in a Presidential year by 18-20% if he's facing a strong Democratic candidate or it is a mildy Democratic-leaning cycle (ex: 2012-type environment).  I think the fact that we've have had two large, back-to-back Republican waves has caused some folks to mistake 2014 (or even 2010) style midterms as the norm.  Just as Republicans had a bonafide wave election in 2016 despite it being a Presidential year (and one that could easily be no more than a fluke).  Regardless of what happens in the Senate, given how reliant their house majority is on gerrymandering and how many Governorships are up, the Republicans should be terrified by the prospect of a potential 2018 Democratic wave.

Clarke wins because his primary is in February, runs as D and gets a lot of crossover support with no contested D primaries in the county at the same time. He also does get a fair amount of Black Dems to vote for him just because he's black. Just to clarify, the north side voted for the conservative over the actual liberal because they were black in the DA election and the conservative burbs voted for the liberal DA because she was unqualified. He has been squeaking by the primaries, someone needs to defeat him in 2020.

I meant if he ran in a statewide race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Burke was actually considered a pretty good candidate for Ds in 2014, IIRC. IMO, this race is Leans R until proven otherwise. I don't see Walker losing unless it's an absolute Democratic wave year.

Nah, everyone thought she was awful.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They don't have the power to ban him, and either krazen is diligently skirting the line on what is acceptable or no one is reporting the posts that would eventually get him banned.

I mean, if this was my forum he'd have been gone long ago because I know what he is doing, and in the long run he's a very clear net negative for the place whose sometimes decent contributions are consistently outweighed by his clear lack of respect/disdain for us. But that's not how the system works here, which I have to say isn't necessarily a bad thing. It can be frustrating like this but it can also prevent moderators/admins from getting carried away with pruning users as they seek to build a perfect forum environment, which in the end could sometimes be just as harmful for the forum.

As we saw all too often with Inks...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow, I knew the Democratic Party here was bad, but I didn't think it was FDP level bad. Why are so many Democrats running scared from an unpopular, controversial governor who won by single digits under very favorable conditions? It's not like funding is everything.

It isn't.  Ron Kind is not the only person capable beating Walker and Cullen won't be the nominee.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flaming Hot Take here: I have more hope in the Iowa race than Wisconsin.

Indeed. Any of Boulton, Pritchard or Leopold seem solid

Yes, especially Pritchard and Boulton.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who would be the best candidate ?

At this point, probably Shilling followed by Vinehout.  Soglin would be a pretty bad choice IMO.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Has Vinehout laid out any sort of timetable? At this point, it seems like she is the only credible candidate left for the Dems in a state that they should be putting a lot of effort into.

Who else is on the Dem bench in Wisconsin? I've never worked in the state and I'm not really too familiar with its politics.

Jennifer Shilling would also be a strong candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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That's BIG, but it doesn't surprise me. Evers is a powerhouse in Wisconsin.

I wonder if Evers will try to convince Vinehout to run in the LG primary as sort of a unity non-Madison/Milwaukee-based ticket. I think they'd be well-balanced geographically.

That would be an interesting choice, and would absolutely neutralize Walker's talking points.

*snip* I wonder if Evers will have access to any of that sweet sweet Herb Kohl money.

I highly doubt it since Dan Kohl is running a pretty competitive congressional campaign against Grothman.  That's probably the priority for the Kohl family this cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Again measuring the drapes a year out. Governor Burke approves.

IIRC, Burke was always considered the underdog. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Soglin vetoes Taco Bell liquor license

Freedom Veto (the fewer people going to Taco Bell, the better!)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mitchell losing the primary will be monumental WRT just how far Big Labor (a term I, of course, use in jest) has fallen as the most potent electoral force in a state like Wisconsin. Shameful!

I’d argue that it’s more that Evers is a much stronger candidate.  Mitchell would’ve been better off biding his time WRT a statewide run.  OTOH, he’s in danger of reaching “has been that never was” status, so maybe he felt it was now or never.  I just think he got unlucky.  A much better test will be whether 1) Walker loses and 2) if so, to what extent organized labor plays a decisive role in his defeat.