Wisconsin Megathread

[Wiz in Wis]

This is not the type of stories you want in the news less than a month before your election:

Justice Rebecca Bradley left oral arguments early last week so she could give a speech to the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce

Rebecca Bradley in 1992: Camille Paglia 'legitimately suggested' women play role in date rape

In college column, Bradley likened abortion to Holocaust, slavery

The hits keep on coming...

Bradley extramarital affair, role in child placement surface

[Wiz in Wis]

If Walker runs for reelection, I think he stands a worse chance of winning than a generic R (like Duffy or Gallagher). Of course, the Dem bench is thinner... and they cannot nominate someone from Milwaukee or Madison. Vinehout seems to be the best choice, IMHO, unless God is real and Aaron Rodgers runs.

Baldwin, ironically, is probably a lot safer because of Trump. I assume Duffy, Grothman or Clarke will be the GOP nominee for Senate.

[Wiz in Wis]

Is there any chances for Russ Feingold to change track, if he is energetic enough to go through the trauma of two consecutive defeats of his senate seat?

Zero

[Wiz in Wis]

So are Dems in Wisconsin just complacent losers? I'm at a loss for words.

This sounds like something that would happen in Alabama.

Hard to find candidates willing to throw themselves into the Priebus/Walker machine's way. The whole state Dem party looks and acts completely spineless. It's not going to take long before moderates/swing voters start getting used to voting R by default.

Looks like Wisconsin Democrats are becoming more and more like Florida Democrats.

The WI Dems have been between a rock and a hard place in the gubernatorial races because a majority of their base wanted to refight Act 10 (the union thing) but the swing voters were/are tired of it. Therefore they've had to either make everything about Act 10 (Barrett) or vapidly pretend it doesn't exist (Burke). If they do the former, they'd tick off swing voters and if they do the latter their base wouldn't be enthusiastic. Thus, the predicament.

Interesting. Explains a lot

From what I could tell the base seemed to love Burke, especially that she was a school board member.

No, they hated Walker. Burke excited about 4 people statewide. She was a terrible candidate. The options for 2018 are much better.

[Wiz in Wis]

Burke was actually considered a pretty good candidate for Ds in 2014, IIRC. IMO, this race is Leans R until proven otherwise. I don't see Walker losing unless it's an absolute Democratic wave year.

The dude has a 38% approval rating for Christ's sake. And Dems will be much more engaged by default than they were in 2010/2014 nationwide. This race is about as tossup as it gets without knowing the opponent.

Walker has always been a polarizing figure in a very polarized state, but he knows how to win statewide elections. I'd be shocked if he lost reelection, honestly. I have it as Lean R.

Guy hasn't won more than 53%, and that was during the recall when he had a good story about giving him a chance. Any rating other than tossup is silly.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sounds like Puzder might withdraw as Trump's choice for Labor Secretary, meaning there's a decent chance that Trump would pick Walker to take the job instead.  So we may be in for Gov. Kleefisch.

[Wiz in Wis]

Politically, Kind is an awful Democrat. One of the biggest Wall Street/Free traders in the Midwest. Current chair of the New Democratic Collation. Definition of a 3rd Way Dem.

Yeah... he's a really right-winger

*eyeroll*

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ron-kind/

[Wiz in Wis]

So far Evers is winning around 60%, with Holtz clearly advancing as Humphries falls apart.

[Wiz in Wis]

Turnout in Dane County is absolutely massive. So far, there have been about 50k votes cast in Dane (which is not yet all in), compared to 25k in Waukesha, which is all in.  Evers is also getting around 47% in Waukesha, and over 80% in Dane.

[Wiz in Wis]

Turnout in Dane County is absolutely massive. So far, there have been about 50k votes cast in Dane (which is not yet all in), compared to 25k in Waukesha, which is all in.  Evers is also getting around 47% in Waukesha, and over 80% in Dane.

Yeah, it was near midterm turnout in some places. The Madison area residents have already  had it with Trump.

Sounds like we could see 30% turnout in Dane... for the Spring Primary. That's totally insane.

Also, Evers carried Ozaukee.

[Wiz in Wis]

What are the turnout numbers (%) in Milwaukee and the WOW counties?

Much lower... Its almost certain that more people will vote in Dane than Milwaukee county. Milwaukee is almost all in and it's only got a 500 vote edge on Dane. Dane is only about 75% in.

[Wiz in Wis]

What sucks about all of this hype and Democratic interest is that no one decided to challenge a conservative Supreme Court Justice that will be up for reelection at the same time as Evers. Might have had a chance this year.

I was thinking the same thing.  A YUGE missed opportunity.

Yes... a complete disaster. God, the DPW is a giant turd.

[Wiz in Wis]

Looking at the results at the county level, the traditional GOP East, Dem West pattern is very obvious. Evers dominated in Western Wisconsin, especially along the traditional Dem corridor between Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Dane counties.

The only real surprises are Douglas County, which Evers' won, but by much less than you would expect given all the surrounding counties, and Evers' over-performance in Outagamie, which he won with more than 70% - and as I mentioned earlier, Ozaukee seems to be peeling itself out of WOW, as Evers carried it. Holtz only "won" Washington and Waukesha counties... he even lost Florence.

[Wiz in Wis]

Looking at the results at the county level, the traditional GOP East, Dem West pattern is very obvious. Evers dominated in Western Wisconsin, especially along the traditional Dem corridor between Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Dane counties.

The only real surprises are Douglas County, which Evers' won, but by much less than you would expect given all the surrounding counties, and Evers' over-performance in Outagamie, which he won with more than 70% - and as I mentioned earlier, Ozaukee seems to be peeling itself out of WOW, as Evers carried it. Holtz only "won" Washington and Waukesha counties... he even lost Florence.

Link please?

http://www.wisconsinvote.org/results/Supt%20of%20Public%20Instrctn%20-%20Primary%20(O)/county-results

[Wiz in Wis]

I made this for giggles... May have an error or two.

Red Evers, Blue Holtz.

[Wiz in Wis]

I made this for giggles... May have an error or two.

Red Evers, Blue Holtz.

That's a landslide in Wisconsin if I've ever seen one.

Kohl in 06, won every county.

That's the election I used as a template for this picture. Oddly, Evers had a higher vote share (70%) than Kohl did (67%). Evers ran 12 points ahead of Kohl in Dane County.

Again, the marginal turnout rates by county here is quite fascinating. In 06, there were about 33% more total votes in Milwaukee County than in Dane County, and Dane county only had about 22% more votes than Waukesha County. In 17, there were about 14% more votes cast in Dane County than in Milwaukee County... and more than 140% more than in Waukesha County.

The anti-Trump elite in Madison showed up... in droves.

[Wiz in Wis]

I made this for giggles... May have an error or two.

Red Evers, Blue Holtz.

That's a landslide in Wisconsin if I've ever seen one.

Kohl in 06, won every county.

That's the election I used as a template for this picture. Oddly, Evers had a higher vote share (70%) than Kohl did (67%). Evers ran 12 points ahead of Kohl in Dane County.

Again, the marginal turnout rates by county here is quite fascinating. In 06, there were about 33% more total votes in Milwaukee County than in Dane County, and Dane county only had about 22% more votes than Waukesha County. In 17, there were about 14% more votes cast in Dane County than in Milwaukee County... and more than 140% more than in Waukesha County.

The anti-Trump elite in Madison showed up... in droves.

I believe the turnout was 8.67% which is really, really pathetic. Weird results will happen.

Amazingly... 8.67% is quite a bit higher than normal for this primary, especially considering that there was no contested Supreme Court race.

Turnout in the past three primaries for state superintendent was just 5.9 percent. The past five primaries with a Supreme Court race wasn’t much better at just 7.3 percent.

So... yes, this is clearly a low turnout election... in which we saw about 30% higher turnout than normal.

http://fox6now.com/2017/02/14/wisconsin-elections-commission-not-predicting-turnout-for-spring-primary-election/

http://fox6now.com/2017/02/22/turnout-hits-8-percent-in-wisconsin-superintendent-race/

[Wiz in Wis]

So long as it isn't Abele...

[Wiz in Wis]

Uh... this would be fun:

Mark Tauscher for Governor

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/milwaukee/2017/03/30/former-packer-mark-tauscher-mulling-run-governor/99833134/

[Wiz in Wis]

It looks like the Wisconsin Democratic Party has been wiped out since 2010. Ron Kind should reconsider, since he is a man that likes to accomplish things, and so far, as a congressman in a EVEN swing district, WI-3. (my type of district), he hasn't gotten a lot of legislation into law that he had wanted done.

Kind should reconsider running as Wisconsin governor in 2018. He could give Walker a competitive race.

Russ Feingold and Lena Taylor should consider running.

[Wiz in Wis]

Soglin would be the Corbyn of the Wisconsin Dems. Old, stale Dem, no new ideas, lives in the past. Loved in Madison but from what I can tell really hasn't done much of anything lately.

Madison's economy is bombing, while the rest of the state is spotty. I think that could be a plus. He's also actually more fiscally responsible than would would assume. Yet I agree, his past would be problematic. Vinehout is the best choice. I still think almost anyone could beat Walker (and he could beat anyone). Trump's approval will play a big part.

It's booming but it still hasn't really produced that many good paying jobs. Epic is a diploma mill that grinds out college graduates as it works them to death and the government is the only other large employer. From what I hear it's hard to find well paying jobs. A lot of graduates try and stay and leave within 5 years for the rest of the country. To be fair it's a state problem, not just the city.

I'm going to disagree here. Madison is actually a pretty easy place to find a good paying job, even aside from Epic. There are a lot of bio-tech and finance firms here. They are building housing everywhere. Aside from Madison, Wisconsin is completely flat in terms of job/population growth.

[Wiz in Wis]

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Wow... that seat just became hella competitive.

[Wiz in Wis]

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That's BIG, but it doesn't surprise me. Evers is a powerhouse in Wisconsin.

I wonder if Evers will try to convince Vinehout to run in the LG primary as sort of a unity non-Madison/Milwaukee-based ticket. I think they'd be well-balanced geographically.

That would be an interesting choice, and would absolutely neutralize Walker's talking points.

*snip* I wonder if Evers will have access to any of that sweet sweet Herb Kohl money.

I highly doubt it since Dan Kohl is running a pretty competitive congressional campaign against Grothman.  That's probably the priority for the Kohl family this cycle.

You know Herb is personally worth several hundred million, right... I think he could drop a lot in two places.

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers has to be the favorite right now, if only because Wachs and Vinehout share a regional base, and Wachs just got endorsed by Dave Obey.

[Wiz in Wis]

At this point in 2013, PPP had Burke down 6 to Walker:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/voters-split-on-walker-he-leads-head-to-heads/