Wisconsin Megathread

[Nhoj]

polk county does have a weird tendency for statistical anomalies. I think there was a primary some years ago where some pro weed guy did well there.

[Nhoj]

You finally got my area! Anyways i seem to recall jauch having a opponent in 2010 so i think that's wrong that he was unopposed. As for smith he will lose for being poorly spoken more than the districts lean  I wager.

[Nhoj]

My state senator is retiring, despite a poor performance by him in 2010 I don't think this is much of a GOP pickup opportunity. Did walker even win it?

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/nw-wisconsin/Wis-Senator-Bob-Jauch-retiring-227075001.html

[Nhoj]

A western based 7th would be great! on the other hand wtf is that 75th assembly district, splitting washburn in that way makes little sense.
But yeah its a shame it will never pass.

[Nhoj]

The former mayor of Rice lake Romaine Quinn is going to run here for 75th Assembly District, he was 19 when he was elected mayor in 2010. 

[Nhoj]

Dane deutch is running for state senate again, considering he lost in 2010 I doubt he wins even though jauch is retiring this time.

[Nhoj]

This is strange james o'keefe seems to have targeted a republican and it was with something actually serious. This one seems to be a Dem pickup opportunity aswell.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ellis-drops-out-of-senate-race-b99245893z1-254907211.html

[Nhoj]

Can we end this pointless discussion? Its killing a perfectly good electoral thread.

[Nhoj]

In the 75th AD there is a primary on the R side between ken mandley a pastor from turtle lake and romaine quinn the former mayor of rice lake. who is 23 and was mayor at 19. he was also a paulite back when he was mayor, I dont know if he still is. 

I will be voting quinn of course, and probably will vote for nutters on the rest of the gop ballot.

[Nhoj]

The republican candidate for SOS. Obviously im going to vote for him

[Nhoj]

Much of out state does tend to be pro incumbent.

[Nhoj]

Feingold leaving State.

That title made me think he was leaving Wisconsin.

[Nhoj]

Hopefully they dont throw in exemptions for republican leaning unions like they were talking about doing.

[Nhoj]

Althouse has analyzed this at length.

Yup. Abrahamson's argument makes no sense. Even if she were re-elected as Chief Justice, if the constitution changes, she wouldn't necessarily still hold that position. This reminds me of when Cuyahoga County massively overhauled its county charter and a bunch of sitting office holders had their positions taken away from them. Shirley Abrahamson's power as Chief Justice stems from her being given that power by the Wisconsin State Constitution. After April 29th, the Wisconsin State Constitution will no longer give her that power. That's how amendments work.

I must say though, that the voters of Wisconsin re-elected Bradley and passed that amendment makes no sense. I would love to hear a coherent explanation of someone could vote for Bradley and Yes on the amendment. Yet, both passed, so clearly a lot of people did.

Believing in retention of judges/not caring but thinking the amendment sounds More democratic/feel goody? Though perhaps you don't think that's coherent reasoning.

[Nhoj]

Some statewide tidbits from the new Marquette poll:

Should marijuana be legalized and regulated like alcohol? (Prior poll with a similar question was September 2014)

Yes 59% (+13)
No 39% (-12)

Scott Walker's approval rating:

38% approve (-1)
58% disapprove (+1)

Walker's approvals have yet to rebound since his presidential run.

Paul Ryan's favorability rating:

48% favorable (-1)
33% unfavorable (+1)

President Obama's approval rating:

51% approval (+/-0)
45% disapproval (+2)

I think it is increasingly likely walker doesn't run again. Good rec marijuana numbers, a advisory referendum on it would be fun.

[Nhoj]

Looking at the results at the county level, the traditional GOP East, Dem West pattern is very obvious. Evers dominated in Western Wisconsin, especially along the traditional Dem corridor between Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Dane counties.

The only real surprises are Douglas County, which Evers' won, but by much less than you would expect given all the surrounding counties, and Evers' over-performance in Outagamie, which he won with more than 70% - and as I mentioned earlier, Ozaukee seems to be peeling itself out of WOW, as Evers carried it. Holtz only "won" Washington and Waukesha counties... he even lost Florence.

I believe one of the republicans had been previously in charge of the Superior school district, that's probably why Douglas has a soft margin.

[Nhoj]

So it appears that Tony Evers is in. He officially announced yesterday. He made a 15 minute announcement speech where he espoused many progressive values and he often seemed to link his ideas back to children and his career in education. He also made a 3 minute video which I have linked to here. What do y'all think of it?

I don't mean to be rude, but I don't think he has the looks for it.

have you seen what Wi Gov's look like?

Anyways why are people surprised Walker is unpopular when we still don't have a budget?

[Nhoj]

So the WI GOP is running radio ads thanking Walker for his tax cuts apparently. Perhaps trying to boost his approvals ahead of his reelection campaign announcement.

[Nhoj]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

Mitchell could probably get the possibly get the pull of all the unions in Wisconsin.

You think the teachers unions would back him over Evers? I find that highly unlikely.

[Nhoj]

Since i live in the district next to SD 10, I have been hearing radio ads for the republican primary. pretty typical stuff other than Zimmerman has been running attack ads against Jarchow for not being 100% loyal to walker. i do see that Jarchow has locked up most of the endorsements from current and former elected officials including the third HD Rep in SD 10.

Also while soglin sounds like a HP, who eats at taco bell in madison? surely there is some good local mexican places.

[Nhoj]

Since i live in the district next to SD 10, I have been hearing radio ads for the republican primary. pretty typical stuff other than Zimmerman has been running attack ads against Jarchow for not being 100% loyal to walker. i do see that Jarchow has locked up most of the endorsements from current and former elected officials including the third HD Rep in SD 10.

What's so interesting about SD 10, exactly?

There is a special election? that's about it. Seeing how democrats have been improving in specials nationwide it may be interesting to watch.

[Nhoj]

I had to re register, but since im still in the same town wasn't hard to do. Was around 35 votes so far which I would say is low even for here.

[Nhoj]

State Senator Terry Moulton (R-23: Chippewa Falls) is not seeking reelection

If the wave is as big as some of the special elections in the state have hinted at, this could flip.

District Map

kathy bernier is already running for the republicans. Her assembly district should be even more flipable, of course that wont do much to cut into the R margin in the assembly.