Wisconsin Megathread

[windjammer]

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

If we wanted to have the national average, we have to add 4.52 point of %?

Excellent job Gass

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Thank you Gass! So the wisconsin senate can become a dem majority in a democratic year.

Has Scott Walker recovered?

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Defeating Walker would be hmmmm awesome . He will probably be totally far to right if reelected in order to align himself with tea party...

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And Scott Walker, would a scandal be possible?

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MLS, what is it?
But not surprising though, Walker is leading at this time!

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Time to pray, God, help Wisconsin!

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Cook Political Report: Wisconsin: Likely Rep======> Lean Rep.
To be honest, I don't understand. Of course Wisconsin is between lean/likely rep, but why this change?

[windjammer]

Obama carried this district by ten points in 2008! Oh yes!

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And he even carried this district in 2008 (by 0.01 point)

[windjammer]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

[windjammer]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

[windjammer]

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

Oh, well I still don't expect anything to change. GOP already has 3 candidates in the race, any clear frontrunner?

Yes, this guy

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/253734901.html

And that's why we are saying this could be somewhat competitive.

And you Gass, if the 9th district is open, is it a potential dem pick up?

[windjammer]

Dammit, Wisconsin will be so interesting in 2014! And probably in 2016 and 2018 too! LoveWisconsin !!!!

[windjammer]

PPP will poll Wisconsin. Your prediction?
Personally: 48-42 Walker

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http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-prepare-for-primary-fight-in-wisconsin-house-race/
I hope they will poll this primary too.

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Not a good month for the WI GOP party (http://new.scenenewspaper.com/2014/05/wisconsin-gops-bad-month/)
-the scandal who forced a rep state senator to retire (Ellis: his district: D+1 Obama carried twice)
-The retirement of Petri: tea party vs gop establishment race: Grothman vs Leithman. The establishment should win, but Leithman's district is now open (R+3).
-Their senate majority leader was forced to resign because of a sex harassment scandal.

[windjammer]

Wisconsin is now a toss up for  Cook.

Too soon, and they underestimate Walker.
And I say that as someone who deeply hates him.

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Well,
Wait and see for Walker.

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http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/09/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-republican-congress-quotes

Disgusting...

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Not surprising.

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If Clinton wins, Walker will likely be reelected.

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If Clinton wins, Walker will likely be reelected.

I don't think Kind will run. He might or he might not, depends on who the Dems run against him. Like I've said someone like Lena Taylor or Mary Burke likely lose again. Dems have some good candidates but they might not run.

Except  Kind, who would be the best candidates?

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Big news in the Supreme Court race if true and it holds.

If democrats win, they retake the control of the SC?

[windjammer]

Walker prepping to run for a third term and keeping his national options open.

Not so bold prediction: If he runs, he will be re-elected. RIP Wisconsin.

^^^^^^

WI is one of the worst dem-leaning states.

[windjammer]

Walker prepping to run for a third term and keeping his national options open.

Not so bold prediction: If he runs, he will be re-elected. RIP Wisconsin.

Probably - if a Democrat wins the White House in 2016, which is likely. Sad. I wonder which Democrat sacrificial lamb is going to get 45-47% of the vote this time.

I wonder if Tammy Baldwin will lose as well? Baldwin and Johnson both seem kind of doomed right now.

She would be the underdog, but I would say Toss up/tilt rep. She's a strong campaigner (see her 2012 senate campaign).