With the 2012 results, are VA/CO slowly becoming D leans and not 50/50?

[Smash255]

Don't think you can call Virignia lean Democratic until we see in 2016/2020 what black turnout looks like when there is not an African-American leading the ticket.  

 Massive black turnout resulted in Obama winning Henrico Co in suburban Richmond by about 10 points, both in 2008 and 2012.  Without a large turnout, Henrico is at best 50-50 and likely lean Republican. And in traditionally-conservative Chesterfield, also suburban Richmond, black voters really, really kept GOP margins in check. Same can be said for numerous other counties across southern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Without black voters, Northern Virginia alone can't carry the state for Democrats, at least not yet.

It's just far from certain that another Democratic candidate will be ever again be able to motivate African-Americans anything even close to what Obama was able to.

I really don't think you can attribute Henrico to black turnout increases.  While it didn't go Democratic since 48 prior to 2008 there was a rather strong Demm trend in the county for quite sometime.


Compared to national average

1988    GOP  +31.57
1992    GOP  +24.03
1996    GOP  +21.56
2000    GOP  +12.98
2004    GOP  +5.66
2008    Dem  +4.96
2012    Dem  +8.77  (not final)

Henrico is GONE for the GOP and that was going to happen black guy or no black guy.  This wasn't some one time trend here, the county was moving sharply towards the Dems well before Obama.

[Smash255]

Henrico is GONE for the GOP and that was going to happen black guy or no black guy.  This wasn't some one time trend here, the county was moving sharply towards the Dems well before Obama.

Yes, but the reason why is the African-American population in Henrico has been growing at a rapid clip as more leave Richmond for the suburbs.  Simple census numbers. Black population grew from 25% to nearly 30 percent just from 2000 to 2010.  In 1980 Henrico was only 15 percent black.  Obviously, the growth in the black population is going to shift voting habits. But that doesn' mean the black population always turns out in large enough nunbers to be decisive, one reason Kerry couldn't win it but Obama could.

It has been trending hard towards the Dems for 25 years.  While Kerry didn't win it, it was certainly moving hard towards the Dems.   Granted Kerry didn't win it, but compared to the national margin it jumped 16 points from 96  to 2004.  That is absolutely massive, and obviously has nothing to do with Obama.  There is nothing to indicate the hard Dem trend in Henrico would not have continued if it was someone other than Obama.  Henrico is GONE