The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

Columba Bush is still very opposed to Jeb running. Some Pub insiders think Jeb might take VP for a severely conservative nominee.

Paul makes IA inroads.

[Never]

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Real Clear Politics' Tom Bevan argues that there are five reasons Hillary won't run for president in 2016 (these are all direct quotes from Bevan):

1. "She's just not that good at campaigning."
2. "The “fire in the belly question."
3. "It ain’t gonna be a coronation."
4. "Obama is leaving a mess."
5. "The country wants real change."

[IceSpear]

Columba Bush is still very opposed to Jeb running. Some Pub insiders think Jeb might take VP for a severely conservative nominee.

Paul makes IA inroads.

Why would the then 63 year old Jeb play second fiddle to some teabagger? Sounds like BS to me.

[IceSpear]

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Real Clear Politics' Tom Bevan argues that there are five reasons Hillary won't run for president in 2016 (these are all direct quotes from Bevan):

1. "She's just not that good at campaigning."
2. "The “fire in the belly question."
3. "It ain’t gonna be a coronation."
4. "Obama is leaving a mess."
5. "The country wants real change."

Sounds like wishful thinking from a right wing ideologue. 3 of these 5 could also be used as "reasons why democraps should concede and let republicans win in 2016"

[Never]

^ Which three?

Btw, I thought that the fourth reason was outside of Hillary's control, and that by the same metric, McCain should not have run for president in 2008, so I didn't think it was a useful justification for Hillary not starting a presidential campaign.

Tom Bevan does some to be a conservative, but I felt that this article made some interesting points.

[IceSpear]

^ Which three?

Btw, I thought that the fourth reason was outside of Hillary's control, and that by the same metric, McCain should not have run for president in 2008, so I didn't think it was a useful justification for Hillary not starting a presidential campaign.

Tom Bevan does some to be a conservative, but I felt that this article made some interesting points.

3, 4, and 5.

America pretty clearly sees Hillary and Obama separately, that's why she can have an overwhelming advantage in the polls when the very same polls show Obama's approval underwater. As for McCain, Bush's horrible ratings (much worse than Obama's are now) were certainly an issue for him, but they weren't insurmountable. If the election was held in early September, he probably would've won the election.

[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer on Romney 2016:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/brian-schweitzer-bet-100-mitt-romney-wont-run-2016-2014-6

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[Bull Moose Base]

Schweitzer on Romney 2016:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/brian-schweitzer-bet-100-mitt-romney-wont-run-2016-2014-6

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4 to 1? I would give 40 to 1. Maybe Romney himself is more interested than he's let on. Either that or between Schweitzer and me, one of us is terrible at gauging risk and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the White House.

[Badger]

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Real Clear Politics' Tom Bevan argues that there are five reasons Hillary won't run for president in 2016 (these are all direct quotes from Bevan):

1. "She's just not that good at campaigning."
2. "The “fire in the belly question."
3. "It ain’t gonna be a coronation."
4. "Obama is leaving a mess."
5. "The country wants real change."

As noted, this is a really weak argument. There is only one true factor governing whether Hillary will run, get the nomination in a cakewalk, and (baring serious economic slowdown or the similar national crisis) have about even odds to win in November: At her age, does she want to go through all that and serve potentially 8 years at the toughest job in the world?

(Before anyone accuses me of sexism for referencing her age, I'd say the same about any male candidate who'd be pushing 70 at the 2016 election. I'd say the same about Biden if I thought he was a viable candidate).

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal will try withdrawing LA from Common Core.

[Suburbia]

O'Malley to campaign in Iowa June 20-21, 2014
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/20/martin-omalley-iowa_n_5516143.html

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee will make his first public campaign appearance in South Carolina since 2008 this Saturday:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/06/20/mike-huckabee-to-campaign-in-south-carolina

He'll be campaigning for Mike Campbell, a candidate for Lt. Gov.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie was in New Hampshire on Friday:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-politics-christie-20140620,0,2030618.story

[Mr. Morden]

Perry prepares:

http://time.com/2902474/rick-perry-president-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley to campaign in Iowa June 20-21, 2014
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/20/martin-omalley-iowa_n_5516143.html

His visit included a Friday night event honoring Tom Harkin.  Biden and Clinton also delivered remarks via video:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-martin-omalley-honor-tom-harkin-108151.html?hp=l14

[Mr. Morden]

Warren potentially opens the door to changing her mind on a run, by sticking to the present tense with "I'm not running":

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ruth-marcus-elizabeth-warren-says-she-is-focused-on-fighting-for-the-little-guy/2014/06/20/467f9544-f896-11e3-8aa9-dad2ec039789_story.html

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[RogueBeaver]

Jeb holding a joint Tampa fundraiser for Cotton, Gardner, Ernst, Wehby, perhaps the AK winner.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton says she'll talk about opportunities for women and girls "every day" if she runs:

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/In-S-F-Clinton-expands-on-possible-2016-5580339.php

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[SWE]

Bernie Sanders compares his potential challenge to Hillary to Cantor's upset defeat

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/24/bernie-sanders-hillary_n_5527418.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton ruminates on reasons not to run for president:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-hillary-clinton-san-francisco-20140626-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee's currently on a trip to Israel:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/182104#.U60ZR8alD4Y

Meanwhile, shortly after the midterm elections, Huckabee will go on a tour of Europe with a group of Evangelical pastors from the early primary states of IA/NH/NV/SC:

http://www.christianpost.com/news/mike-huckabee-to-host-international-tour-for-evangelical-pastors-from-early-primary-states-122156/

[retromike22]

An unmentioned name, Senator Bob Corker: http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/is-bob-corker-running-for-president-20140626

[Maxwell]

Corker will be continued to be unmentioned, as he supports increasing the gas tax.

If he does run, which is next to 0% chance, he may just be a spoiler for the more moderate candidates.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal trying to corner the socon niche.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul hires former IAGOP chair Steve Grubbs.