The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[publicunofficial]

Never had much of a chance, but John Thune looks like he's sitting the presidential race out.

http://atr.rollcall.com/thune-tells-second-graders-he-has-no-plan-for-white-house-run/

[Mr. Morden]

Never had much of a chance, but John Thune looks like he's sitting the presidential race out.

http://atr.rollcall.com/thune-tells-second-graders-he-has-no-plan-for-white-house-run/

The fact that he opted out of running in 2012, at a time when there was a big opening for any remotely competent "not Romney" candidate on the Right, suggested to me at the time that he is far more interested in climbing the Senate leadership ladder than running for president.  Little chance that he would run for prez in 2016, when his Senate seat is up for reelection, against a presumably stronger GOP field than existed in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer is hedging a bit on his previous insistence that he wouldn't run if Hillary Clinton did:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/meet-the-gun-loving-straight-talking-2016-democratic-presidential-dark-horse-20130222

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[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo has a big story on O'Malley's presidential ambitions, and his (so far) lack of traction from all those TV appearances and trips to Iowa and NH:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/is-md-gov-martin-omalley-running-for-president-or-not/2013/02/21/0c3a7bf8-75f0-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_story.html

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The most revealing bit in the article was this speculation by unnamed advisors about "camping out in Iowa" once his term ends....unless Clinton runs, in which case he'd opt out altogether:

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[Mr. Morden]

Big story in Politico today about Cuomo's presidential ambitions, and how they're frozen in place by Hillary Clinton:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/andrew-cuomo-new-problems-bad-headlines-hillary-clinton-87985.html?hp=f1

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In any case, while Cuomo presumably won't run if Clinton does, he sounds pretty determined to run for president some day, one way or the other:

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[BluegrassBlueVote]

New York politics are intense. With how often Cuomo mentions his Sicilian roots as an explanation of his personality and mannerisms, you'd think he's trying to channel Michael Corleone instead of his political mentor (Bill).

[Mr. Morden]

Walker and Pence on whether the 2016 GOP presidential nominee should be a governor:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/rubio-aside-some-say-gop-govs-best-hope-in-16-88001.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico on Hillary Clinton clearing the field on the Democratic side:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/the-hillary-clinton-factor-88007.html?hp=t2_3

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More on O'Malley:

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And some interesting tidbits about upcoming candidate visits to South Carolina:

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[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman visiting New Hampshire:

http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/Jon-Huntsman-visits-Granite-State/-/9857858/19049358/-/byasutz/-/index.html

[Likely Voter]

I think Huntsman will run again. He is on a quest to bring the party back from the extreme. It wont work but give him points for trying.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie takes the Medicaid expansion.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/02/christie_budget_details.html

[seanNJ9]

The far right does not scare Christie, and why should it? George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney are a 4 of the last 5 Republican presidental nominees. Not exactly far right kooks. The far right have a bigger bark than they have a bite.

[Gamecock]

The far right does not scare Christie, and why should it? George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney are a 4 of the last 5 Republican presidental nominees. Not exactly far right kooks. The far right have a bigger bark than they have a bite.

Except opposing Obamacare is not a 'far right' issue, it is something that most Republican voters expect from their candidates. You mentioned Mitt Romney, who would not have gotten through the primaries if he did not make a pretty thorough promise to repeal it.

So if Christie is running, he must be thinking that healthcare will not be a big issue.

[seanNJ9]

The far right does not scare Christie, and why should it? George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney are a 4 of the last 5 Republican presidental nominees. Not exactly far right kooks. The far right have a bigger bark than they have a bite.

Except opposing Obamacare is not a 'far right' issue, it is something that most Republican voters expect from their candidates. You mentioned Mitt Romney, who would not have gotten through the primaries if he did not make a pretty thorough promise to repeal it.

So if Christie is running, he must be thinking that healthcare will not be a big issue.

and yet the Republican Party nominated a guy in the last election who's great achievement as Governor of Massachusetts was the blue print to Obama-care. If that wasn't enough to block Romney from the nomination in 2012, expanding medicare sure as hell won't in 2016.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, if everyone is a Benedict Arnold, Benedict Arnold doesn't start looking too bad.

[tmthforu94]

If anyone is bored, go like Rand Paul on FB and read the comments he's getting from folks. Very entertaining.

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

Right, but isn't he in an impossible situation on foreign policy in any case?  The majority of the party is still fairly hawkish, but Paul's base within the party is not, and in fact presumably agrees more with Hagel on foreign policy than the rest of the party.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum headed to Iowa in April to be the keynote speaker at the annual Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Spring Kickoff:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/26/2016-watch-its-never-too-early-to-go-to-iowa/

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is apparently doing a full court press to lock down as many big dollar Republican donors on Wall Street as he can get, in anticipation of a presumed 2016 presidential campaign:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/marco-rubio-courts-wall-street-88144.html?hp=t1_3

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Here's a picture of Rubio posing with Scharzman and penguins(?):



The article also notes other meetings between Wall Street donors and Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, and (in his capacity at the NRSC, not likely for a presidential campaign of his own) Rob Portman.

Christie is limited in his national fundraising ability because of New Jersey's particularly strict fundraising laws.  However:

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Of course, O'Malley leaves office in January 2015, so he'll be free of any such fundraising limitations by the time he launches his presidential campaign.  Jindal will also be out of office in January 2016, but I guess Christie and Cuomo would have to resign from office if they want to run for president while having unfettered ability to raise money from big banks.  But someone can correct me if I have that wrong?

[Mr. Morden]

Christie does have some big dollar donors of his own, and one billionaire/influential Christie donor says that he's in no danger of losing them over his supposed conservative apostasies:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/341695/christie-backers-still-eyeing-2016-robert-costa

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[RogueBeaver]

Silver: Christie was always a moderate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/christies-honeymoon-with-conservatives-is-over/

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

Right, but isn't he in an impossible situation on foreign policy in any case?  The majority of the party is still fairly hawkish, but Paul's base within the party is not, and in fact presumably agrees more with Hagel on foreign policy than the rest of the party.

You're right about the problems that come from having to appease both his father's following and the Tea Party backing, but the hate seems to be coming exclusively from the people who use Bald Eagle avatars on Twitter with Benghazi 4 ribbons. You know, the "#TCOT #ISRAEL #FREEDOM" etc. crowd.

I've said it before, but I'm not so sure he holds onto his father's supporters as he continues to grow his national profile. It's definitely not a guarantee, at least.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo is planning a string of high profile fundraisers over the next six months, including two in Florida.  He insists it's not because of 2016:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/andrew-cuomo-plans-mega-fundraisers-87992.html

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Walker will all participate in a fundraising event for the RNC (being held in Florida) over the weekend of March 9-10:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/rnc-event-snags-2016-hopefuls-88267.html?hp=r2

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