The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

P16 has a fantastic Empathy Power Rankings of the top 5 Pubs. 1) Christie 2) Martinez 3) Rubio 4) Paul 5) Jeb.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/04/the-gop-empathy-power-rankings.html

[Mr. Morden]

More Rick Perry:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/05/perry-indeed-open-to-2016-bid/

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[publicunofficial]

More Rick Perry:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/05/perry-indeed-open-to-2016-bid/

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Please. Please do.

If Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich all run again I'd be a very happy liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

Walker with Sandoval at the Team Nevada dinner.

https://twitter.com/BrianSandoval/status/320373956303523840/photo/1

[Senator Spiral]

More Rick Perry:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/05/perry-indeed-open-to-2016-bid/

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Here's something I've been thinking with Perry: At first glance you could assume that he'll make his decision and, assuming he decides to run, will probably wait until late 2014 to announce his bid, but what if the guy actually announces late this year way before anyone else? Some of his similar statements slightly hint towards that. Talk about a long invisible primary if that were the case.

[greenforest32]

More Rick Perry:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/05/perry-indeed-open-to-2016-bid/

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[Mr. Morden]

Howard Dean, who's previously said that while he doesn't think he's likely to run in 2016, he won't rule it out, has announced that his PAC will be used to focus on electing Democrats to state legislatures around the country, in the hopes of swinging some of them from GOP to Democratic control:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/26/howard-dean-state-legislatures_n_2956633.html

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That's of course a modest amount of $, and focused on only a few states.  Virginia is up in 2013, but then in 2014, they're expanding to:

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Just thought I'd bold that one word there. 

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/us/politics/if-he-runs-in-2016-biden-faces-role-as-underdog.html

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[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Howard Dean, who's previously said that while he doesn't think he's likely to run in 2016, he won't rule it out, has announced that his PAC will be used to focus on electing Democrats to state legislatures around the country, in the hopes of swinging some of them from GOP to Democratic control:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/26/howard-dean-state-legislatures_n_2956633.html

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That's of course a modest amount of $, and focused on only a few states.  Virginia is up in 2013, but then in 2014, they're expanding to:

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Just thought I'd bold that one word there. 

Dean! Dean! Dean!

[Mr. Morden]

I already mentioned that Santorum will be in Iowa next week to speak at a fundraiser for the "Faith & Freedom Coalition".  Well, he's not in Iowa yet, but he already did an interview with the Des Moines Register in advance of his visit, in which he talks about gay marriage:

link

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[Brittain33]

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Self-serving argument to say the Republicans should follow what is unpopular...

[RogueBeaver]

A book excerpt on Walker's early life.

http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2013/04/08/the-preachers-kid/

[Torie]

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Self-serving argument to say the Republicans should follow what is unpopular...

Who said what you quoted?  A politician or a poster? And about what?

Santorum comparing the politics of gay marriage to the politics of abortion gives me a headache. Nothing living is going to die if gays get married. And if the politics of dissolving the marriages of hundreds of thousands of same sex couples down the road is not political suicide, I don't know what is. What  person who has any heart at all could possibly be in favor of that?

[RogueBeaver]

The Cheesemen will make separate yet mutually informed decisions, and Ryan's still potentially interested.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/badger_brat_pack_charting_gops_path-223854-1.html?zkPrintable=true

[Mr. Morden]

The Cheesemen will make separate yet mutually informed decisions, and Ryan's still potentially interested.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/badger_brat_pack_charting_gops_path-223854-1.html?zkPrintable=true

This is the most notable line from that article:

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Should be noted though, that Ryan is not next in line on seniority on Ways and Means.  Though for someone of his political stature, jumping the line on seniority wouldn't necessarily be out of the question.

[RogueBeaver]

Depends what he wants to do. These mixed signals are reminiscent of how he played the Veepstakes game for most of 2011- would he want to give up the congressional power, and did he have national electoral ambitions? Remembering that he already got a budget waiver. I do think that Ryan will make his intentions known by early 2014 though.

[RogueBeaver]

Silver on Jindal's tanking numbers at home: a factor among many.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/with-popularity-fading-at-home-is-jindal-the-new-romney/

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper is visiting Israel, a frequent stopover for American politicians with presidential ambitions:

http://kdvr.com/2013/04/09/hickenlooper-embarks-on-week-long-trip-to-israel/

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT has a story on O'Malley's liberal heroism in the recently concluded legislative session in Maryland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/us/omalley-steers-maryland-to-the-left.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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I have to say, the end of the story is hilarious:

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico on O'Malley's liberal heroism in this legislative session:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/martin-omalley-2016-89890.html

Btw, I mentioned Hickenlooper a few posts ago.  He has quietly stoked a bit more buzz since the November election, whereas folks like Patrick and Villaraigosa, who made some moves in 2012, suddenly aren't doing anything to indicate that they're interested in running anymore.

In fact, now's as good a time as any to give my own impressions on who's likely to run on the Dem. side if Clinton doesn't.  If Clinton *does* run, then perhaps as few as 1 or 0 of the following people will run.  But if she doesn't, then these are my guesses, based on how potentially candidate activity has shifted from 2012 to today:

most likely to run: O'Malley, Cuomo, Schweitzer, Biden (though O'Malley has certainly made his intentions the most clear of this group)

chances of running are good, but not as high as the preceding four guys: Klobuchar

wildcard, because I'm not sure if she'd defer to Cuomo or not: Gillibrand

chances of running growing: Dean, Hickenlooper, Napolitano

chances of running fading very slightly: Warner

chances of running fading: Patrick, Villaraigosa

very unlikely to run, but people keep pretending that they're likely to run: Booker, Castro, Warren

[Bull Moose Base]

Warren isn't at all comparable to mayors Booker or Castro. Her resume would be similar to Obama's in 2008, as would grassroots enthusiasm for her. She's very doubtful to run if Clinton runs, the most likely nominee if Clinton does not.

Santorum and Paul remain the only Republicans better than 50/50 to run. Cruz seems close to 50/50.

[RogueBeaver]

Sabato ranks the Dem field.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16-part-1-democrats-again-hunger-for-history/

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal will appear in New Hampshire next month, to help state senate Republicans there raise money:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/11/jindal-to-visit-new-hampshire-stoking-2016-speculation/

Warren isn't at all comparable to mayors Booker or Castro. Her resume would be similar to Obama's in 2008, as would grassroots enthusiasm for her.

Sorry, didn't mean to imply they were the same.  What I'm suggesting is that Warren hasn't really shown that she's interested.  That's why I rate her low on the "likelihood to run" list.  Booker is interested, but won't have enough experience by 2016 to run.  (Though I expect we'll get a lot more Booker 2016 speculation if Lautenberg resigns his seat this year, since his health seems to be failing.  If he resigns before August, then there's a special election in November, which Booker would presumably win.  Still think he'd be unlikely to run in 2016, though he'll surely be a frequently mentioned name in the veepstakes.)

[RogueBeaver]

As Bob Costa noted on Twitter yesterday, for a supposed non-candidate Ryan sure is keeping a busy schedule. Here's his SBA address from last night.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/paul-ryan-building-coalition-life_716250.html

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/paul-aide-irked-by-cruz-invite-to-sc-90019.html?hp=t1_3

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