The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

NY Jets owner Woody Johnson, who is a big Republican money guy, will apparently be hosting a dinner party for Jeb Bush later this month:

link

Rand Paul was in South Carolina on Friday, and apparently tried to assuage some GOP politicos in a private meeting that he would differentiate himself from father on some issues in a potential national campaign:

http://therun2016.com/rand-addressed-his-dad-in-private-south-carolina-meeting/

RCP also flags this interesting gossip about the tension between father and son:

link

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[Phony Moderate]

It would be hilarious if Perry announced this early. If that is indeed what he's planning to do next week, could it cause a domino effect?

[RogueBeaver]

It would be hilarious if Perry announced this early. If that is indeed what he's planning to do next week, could it cause a domino effect?

He'd announce that he was retiring, obviously wouldn't announce for President this early. More open moves will be made next year- for instance campaigning and/or fundraising for chosen candidates, like Romney & Co did last cycle.

[RogueBeaver]

Hamby on Perry.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Pawlenty answered the question that no one asked, in saying that he's not running for prez in 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=175764.0

Ted Nugent asked the question that no one wanted asked, in saying that he might run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2016:

link

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[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

NY Jets owner Woody Johnson, who is a big Republican money guy, will apparently be hosting a dinner party for Jeb Bush later this month:

Mandatory "go Jets, but go die Woody Johnson" post.

Ted Nugent asked the question that no one wanted asked, in saying that he might run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2016:

link

Ted Nugent would honestly be the most hilarious president of all time. I support his presidential bid simply for its massive entertainment value.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Christie's rhetoric has taken a huge shift to the right.  Gone are the days of, "It's not Republican or Democrat," now it's:

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Hopefully that ends the Democrats' love affair with Christie, for both the gubernatorial and presidential contests, now that he's shown himself to be yet another politician who says what ever it takes to get elected.

I wouldn't call that a tack to the right. It's just a pretty common observation. Obama hasn't really been the picture of strong leadership that past presidents have been.

[Mr. Morden]

Some of Biden's aides are urging him to launch a leadership PAC for the 2014 midterms, in order to prove his fundraising prowess for 2016:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/joe-biden-fundraising-93771.html?hp=t1

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[Mr. Morden]

Are you all excited about Perry's big announcement about his future plans tomorrow?  Today he said:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/governor-races/309461-gov-perry-2016-run-an-option

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And numerous outlets picked that up as "news", even though it doesn't expand on what he's previously said.

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like Perry's announcement tomorrow will come at 1pm Central (2pm Eastern).

[Likely Voter]

If Perry wants to run for reelection as gov he should probably STFU about running for prez. No one wants to hear that their gov is looking to leave office in two years and polling shows Texans dont want him to run for prez.

not that he has a chance to be nominated for prez anyway

[Mr. Morden]

Here's an article about the activity in Iowa on the GOP side, and the comparative lack of activity on the Democratic side:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/06/too-soon-republican-presidential-hopefuls-already-swarming-iowa.html

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[RogueBeaver]

Perry just announced his retirement.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry just announced his retirement.

Indeed.  Perry is retiring as governor, but deferred on the question of whether to run for president again:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/07/08/rick-perry-texas-governor-president/2497773/

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[Mr. Morden]

Also:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

Not that anyone should be surprised, but Jindal says he's not running for Senate in 2014:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/viewart/20130708/NEWS01/130708032/UPDATED-Gov-Bobby-Jindal-says-no-U-S-Senate-race-2014

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[RogueBeaver]

Here's Jindal on immigration. Doesn't like the Senate bill, but supports eventual legalization contingent upon a whole bunch of things which the Dems would never agree to. So he and perhaps Walker will be the most hawkish on immigration, if not exactly hawks' ideal candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul apparently has an... interesting staffer, who ghostwrote his book.

[Mr. Morden]

There hasn't really been any buzz on Mike Pence in the last six months.  In 2011, he seriously thought about running for president, before opting instead to go for governor.  I had speculated that maybe he really wanted to be president, but figured he needed at least one term in statewide office first, and so he'd serve one term as governor before running for president in 2016.  And indeed, back in November, Politico suggested that Pence might be eyeing a '16 presidential run.  But we've heard nothing along those lines since then.

But in light of that, this becomes interesting.....Pence fawning over Scott Walker, saying that he views Walker as a mentor:

http://therun2016.com/pence-walker-bffs/

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Assuming Walker runs and Pence doesn't, will be interesting to see if Pence becomes an early endorser.  Of course, Indiana has a late primary, so it might not matter.

[Mr. Morden]

This is about two weeks old, but I missed the story back then.  Kasich giving a non-denial denial on 2016 ambitions:

http://dispatchpolitics.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2013/06/6-28-2013-kasich-for-president-not-interested-he-says.html

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[Bull Moose Base]

I think Kasich should be considered one of the more likely candidates (though still less than 50/50 to run) because (a) he's already run, from a weaker stepping stone (b) he's older than the rest. Speaking of likelihood of running, I want some credit for resisting the idea that McDonnell was guaranteed to run. (But I never posted it so you have to trust me!) I think I limited the better than 50/50 to run list to Santorum and Paul though I have to include Cruz as well. I've also resisted including Jindal. If McDonnell is the Sanford of 2016, Jindal is poised to be the Barbour (who ran but never officially). I can easily see Jindal getting no polling, no money and giving up before he starts. Funny that Kasich mentions Christie texting him. It's almost like saying. Hey, the cool kid called me. Please count me in the top tier. I think Kasich would hit even more resistance from the gun lobby than Christie would. Christie, like Pence, has called Scott Walker his role model by the way.

[Mr. Morden]

Ben Carson has found something to keep him in the Washington media conversation until his potential presidential run in two years:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ben-carson-column-20130710,0,1206151.story

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[Mr. Morden]

Dean again says that Clinton won't get a free pass in the primaries, but is sounding less like someone who'd be interested in challenging her himself:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/hillary-clinton-2016-election-primary-howard-dean-94077.html?hp=r2

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Another possible indicator of presidential interest on Rick Perry's part....a planned trip to Israel in October:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/11/perry-trip-israel-sign-another-white-house-bid/

[Mr. Morden]

Janet Napolitano is stepping down as Secretary of Homeland Security to become the president of the University of California system:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-uc-president-20130712,0,83979.story

A few months ago, Napolitano didn't rule out a future run for president:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/napolitano-doesnt-rule-out-2016-run-for-president/article/2525407

but as a sitting Cabinet secretary, was fairly restrained from openly campaigning for the job in the way that O'Malley and Santorum are today.  As UC president, she would presumably be similarly constrained.  Is she actually thinking about working at her new job for just ~2 years, before launching a presidential run?  We'll have to wait and see.

[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer isn't running for Senate:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/13/schweitzer-wont-run-for-senate-in-2014/

If he'd run for Senate, the chances of him turning around a couple of months after being sworn in and launching a presidential campaign were always going to be remote.  Since he's not running for Senate, that means that he should again be open to a presidential run, right?  Well, maybe not:

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Schweitzer also says that "he doesn't want to leave Montana and go to Washington, D.C.":

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/13/brian-schweitzer-senate_n_3591663.html

Does that actually rule him out for 2016 though, or might he "change his mind" if Hillary Clinton doesn't run for president?  We'll have to wait and see.