The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

We have a "How many angels on the head of a pin?" discussion in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178907.0

about whether Peter King is in fact already running for president.  (He apparently says yes, though he hasn't actually created a campaign or filed with the FEC.)

Meanwhile, Michael Bloomberg says that he won't be running in 2016:

http://nymag.com/news/politics/bloomberg/in-conversation-2013-9/index5.html

[RogueBeaver]

Story about where Romney's fundraising network might end up: one person they won't support is Walker, because he publicly criticized the Romney campaign. Critiques that turned out to be dead on. Network's particularly interested in Rubio. Also a buried nugget, which I think we mentioned in this thread a while ago IIRC: Christie, Rubio, Paul and Ryan will attend a fundraiser at Woody Johnson's home in 2 weeks, before heading to Branstad's fundraiser the following day.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminder that there is some FP space between Cruz and Rand. Rubio getting some softer coverage with Syria crowding everything else out, but I don't think that translates into anyone moving on as Catanese implies. Without a domestic policy niche to hang his cap on, Rubio becomes vulnerable to a governor lobbing "Republican Obama" his way in a debate. Questions about political skill and judgment too.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full Parade article on Rubio.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul interview w/Buzzfeed.

[RogueBeaver]

Cillizza ranks the Pubs: #1 Rand,  #2 Christie, #3 Rubio. Also cites WI sources as saying Ryan's more interested than CW assumes. Which makes sense, considering his upcoming book and comments about enjoying his national experience.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on the Biden/Hillary dynamic. He won't run against her but feels he's being underestimated in the conversation and doesn't want to lose leverage with the Dem establishment. Won't decide till Beau's health issues are resolved.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If Biden wants to be a part of the conversation, my thoughts are that he'd need to "jump in" early to gain some steam and attention. If he waits until April 2015, it'll be too late.

If you ask me, he'll need to start looking like a serious candidate even before the midterms. Is there a BidenPac or something equivalent? Would that even be becoming of the Vice President of the United States? I just think he'll need to be out on the trail espousing some kind of message, even if it's just on behalf of other Dems around the country in 2014. If not, he's moot.

[RogueBeaver]

If Biden wants to be a part of the conversation, my thoughts are that he'd need to "jump in" early to gain some steam and attention. If he waits until April 2015, it'll be too late.

If you ask me, he'll need to start looking like a serious candidate even before the midterms. Is there a BidenPac or something equivalent? Would that even be becoming of the Vice President of the United States? I just think he'll need to be out on the trail espousing some kind of message, even if it's just on behalf of other Dems around the country in 2014. If not, he's moot.

I don't think there's a Biden PAC right now. He won't run against Hillary, so he'll probably find out early enough to avoid jumping the gun. Biden making major moves in 2014 would spark a flood of speculation about Clinton being out, since he's now on record as saying he wouldn't run against her.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden making major moves in 2014 would spark a flood of speculation about Clinton being out, since he's now on record as saying he wouldn't run against her.

When did he say that?  I don't remember reading that.  I skimmed through the NYT article linked to above, and saw "Aides say they cannot really imagine a situation in which Mr. Biden would run against Mrs. Clinton", but that's a lot different from Biden himself "being on record" as saying that he wouldn't run against her.

[Mr. Morden]

Dean reiterates that he's tentatively planning to support Clinton in 2016, but doesn't quite rule out a run for himself:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/what-is-howard-dean-thinking-96113.html?hp=f1

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The story also includes this fun sidenote: "Clinton allies remain disdainful of Dean, seeing him as a gadfly and a nuisance."

Politico also comments on Biden's reservoir of goodwill in the early primary states:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/joe-biden-iowa-fan-club-96809.html?hp=t1

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[HagridOfTheDeep]

If Biden wants to be a part of the conversation, my thoughts are that he'd need to "jump in" early to gain some steam and attention. If he waits until April 2015, it'll be too late.

If you ask me, he'll need to start looking like a serious candidate even before the midterms. Is there a BidenPac or something equivalent? Would that even be becoming of the Vice President of the United States? I just think he'll need to be out on the trail espousing some kind of message, even if it's just on behalf of other Dems around the country in 2014. If not, he's moot.

I don't think there's a Biden PAC right now. He won't run against Hillary, so he'll probably find out early enough to avoid jumping the gun. Biden making major moves in 2014 would spark a flood of speculation about Clinton being out, since he's now on record as saying he wouldn't run against her.

His aides have made some statements, but has he? If he wants to run and win, he won't care what signals he's sending about Hillary's intentions.

As for major moves... I don't necessarily mean anything as transparent as Santorum or Paul, but he just needs to be a player. He can achieve that by being a powerful force on the campaign trail during the midterms.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan said on a local talk show that he'd give serious consideration to running, but not yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary NYM interview will be published on Monday, her first major interview since leaving State.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan to headline 2 Brownback fundraisers next week.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio endorses Cotton, plans to endorse a few more Pub Senate hopefuls and probably campaign with them.

[Mr. Morden]

Steve King again says that his travel to NH and SC aren't about him running for president, but that he might yet run for president:

http://www.radioiowa.com/2013/09/18/king-says-hes-trying-to-shape-2016-presidential-race/

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[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul's family speaks out on a potential run for president.  First, his mother:

http://www.vogue.com/magazine/article/republican-senator-rand-paul-for-president/#1

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Rand's wife, Kelley, doesn't sound happy about a potential campaign:

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In other news, O'Malley will be visiting New Hampshire yet again:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/18/2016-watch-omalley-new-hampshire-bound/

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[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Times has a story focusing on Scott Walker's presidential ambitions, which simultaneously talks about Paul Ryan's presidential ambitions:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/18/scott-walkers-2016-dilemmas-paul-ryan-and-re-elect/?page=1

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[Mr. Morden]

I already mentioned that Walker will be speaking at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference in the early-ish primary state of Michigan.  Looks like he will also be stopping by a fundraiser for Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette:

http://therun2016.com/walker-swinging-by-michigan-fundraiser/

As David Catanese notes, Schuette was a co-chairman of Romney's 2012 presidential campaign in Michigan.  Never too early for Walker to be getting on the good side of such people, who might help him out in a future national campaign of his own. 

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton was in Miami, addressing a travel agents' convention, and made the following quip:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/in-miami-speech-hillary-clinton-mum-on-2016-presidential-ambitions/2142751

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Also:

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Clinton-world's apparent "full steam ahead" mentality with Hillary Clinton 2016:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/hillary-clinton-2016-presidential-race-97105.html?hp=t1

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[RogueBeaver]

Ryan to NH next month to campaign for Guinta.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/rick-perrys-bid-to-stay-relevant-for-2016-97134.html?hp=t1

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[RogueBeaver]

Here's the long Hillary interview with NYM.