The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal will start transitioning his state government soon, declare by January by the sounds of it.

I'm a bit confused about what they mean.  Jindal's term isn't up until January 2016, right?  I don't think he's planning on resigning his governorship early when he launches his presidential campaign, so I guess they're referring to people on his staff transitioning to the campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. Though there's the SEC rule to contend with for all sitting governors. Not that I expect Jindal to be a big hit with the Northeastern moneymen... they're looking at Jeb, Christie, Walker, Rubio.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders is visiting South Carolina this week, and will visit both Iowa and New Hampshire next month:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/215939-sanders-weighs-clinton-challenge

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[Tender Branson]

Good.

Hopefully he runs in the Dem. primary and not as an Indy, to give the right-winger Clinton a run for her money.

[Mr. Morden]

Good.

Hopefully he runs in the Dem. primary and not as an Indy, to give the right-winger Clinton a run for her money.

Of course, his visiting of early primary states is a strong indication that he's running as a Democrat.  If you're running 3rd party, then there's no special significance to IA, NH, SC, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Hamby reports that Rubio did well in SC last night, also reached out to Bob Jones U and other key evangelicals.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan to Hewitt: will decide in the first half of 2015.

[RogueBeaver]

Kelley Paul is more open to her husband running than she was last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio moves rightward on immigration.

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary to address the Women's Leadership Forum in 3 weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary & Pelosi to headline DCCC SF fundraiser Oct. 20.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz, Paul, Pence, and Perry will all address an Americans for Prosperity (the Koch brothers' top political group) summit in Dallas on Friday.  This article notes that Pence has ties to Koch-world, and may have a leg up on winning their support if he decides to run for prez:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/mike-pence-koch-brothers-2016-election-110408.html?hp=f2

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Meanwhile, Romney on 2016:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/27/mitt-romney-2016_n_5721864.html

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[RogueBeaver]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

He'll have my support if he does.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence is headed to Iowa on Sept. 8th to campaign for Branstad:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/08/28/mike-pence-headed-to-iowa/

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz staffing up.

[IceSpear]

Cruz staffing up.

[SPC]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal to IA & NH in the next few weeks.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

He also was the Obama stand-in during the Romney practice debates and is known to be one of the best debaters in the GOP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

He also was the Obama stand-in during the Romney practice debates and is known to be one of the best debaters in the GOP.

I can easily see that, he's always seemed like a very smart guy.  That said he's a pretty uncharismatic speaker, but he's passable.  His problem in Ohio is he's so anonymous, there will be hardly any home state bounce   But he is still as good a fit as the Republicans could hope for, given the country's mood.  The Republicans' best shot is to run someone who can replicate the sort of "compassionate conservatism" routine Bush used in 2000 (obviously with different rhetorical packaging).  Portman certainly fits the bill

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/politics/chelsea-clinton-to-leave-nbc-news.html?_r=0

Don't know if it's a Hillary clue, but Chelsea Cinton is leaving NBC News.

[Simfan34]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

Good news. I like Portman, he seems to be the centrist sort of thinking person focused on development and providing quality government services rather than a paranoid right-winger.

[Maxwell]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

Good news. I like Portman, he seems to be the centrist sort of thinking person focused on development and providing quality government services rather than a paranoid right-winger.

I could see myself voting for Portman, though I disagree with your assessment that he's a centrist.