The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

Good news. I like Portman, he seems to be the centrist sort of thinking person focused on development and providing quality government services rather than a paranoid right-winger.

I could see myself voting for Portman, though I disagree with your assessment that he's a centrist.

On economic issues, he definitely isn't.  I don't know that I'd even call him a centrist so much as someone who is great at sounding like a centrist.

[IceSpear]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

[IceSpear]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

Well, a lot of that would be because the "business candidate" didn't actually disagree with the SoCon wing on anything substantial. The only thing the SoCons didn't like was the lack of emphasis on their issues, not that they didn't support them. The fact that Portman directly goes against them on such a crucial and hot button issue, an issue that SoCons are currently panicked because they're losing, would cause their backlash against him to be immense and unprecedented. As of now, a pro-gay marriage Republican winning a primary is about as likely as a pro-choice one winning a primary, meaning: not a chance in hell. Now, for gay marriage, that could (and probably will) change in the future. But for right now, it isn't gonna happen.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley making his third trip to NH this year on Sept. 26:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/Possible-2016-Presidential-Contender-Returning-to-NH-273193661.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

Well, a lot of that would be because the "business candidate" didn't actually disagree with the SoCon wing on anything substantial. The only thing the SoCons didn't like was the lack of emphasis on their issues, not that they didn't support them. The fact that Portman directly goes against them on such a crucial and hot button issue, an issue that SoCons are currently panicked because they're losing, would cause their backlash against him to be immense and unprecedented. As of now, a pro-gay marriage Republican winning a primary is about as likely as a pro-choice one winning a primary, meaning: not a chance in hell. Now, for gay marriage, that could (and probably will) change in the future. But for right now, it isn't gonna happen.

We'll see...

[Simfan34]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

Good news. I like Portman, he seems to be the centrist sort of thinking person focused on development and providing quality government services rather than a paranoid right-winger.

I could see myself voting for Portman, though I disagree with your assessment that he's a centrist.

On economic issues, he definitely isn't.  I don't know that I'd even call him a centrist so much as someone who is great at sounding like a centrist.

Centrist in relative terms, that is. Moderate in temperament and all that.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

Good news. I like Portman, he seems to be the centrist sort of thinking person focused on development and providing quality government services rather than a paranoid right-winger.

I could see myself voting for Portman, though I disagree with your assessment that he's a centrist.

On economic issues, he definitely isn't.  I don't know that I'd even call him a centrist so much as someone who is great at sounding like a centrist.

Centrist in relative terms, that is. Moderate in temperament and all that.

Anybody to the left of Ted Cruz is now a moderate.

[Bull Moose Base]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

They preferred Giuliani and Romney to McCain. It's true Romney won next cycle despite his Mormonism but there were other factors and no reason to think Portman would do as well in 16. Also no reason to think Kasich will stay out if Portman wants to run.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman may set up an exploratory committee after the midterms.

I guess Kasich is not running.

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

They preferred Giuliani and Romney to McCain. It's true Romney won next cycle despite his Mormonism but there were other factors and no reason to think Portman would do as well in 16. Also no reason to think Kasich will stay out if Portman wants to run.

But McCain was still infinitely closer to them than the SoCons.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul and Pence impress AFP donors.

[RogueBeaver]

Clinton network in AR.

[Mr. Morden]

Portman says he won't try to run for Senate and president at the same time, and that's part of why he's expected to decide shortly after the midterms:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/08/30/portman-likely-to-pick-16-race-early-to-help-gop.html

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But he also says:

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Portman is currently in New Hampshire campaigning for Scott Brown:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/2016-preview-ohio-sen-portman-visits-new-hampshire/ng9D6/?__federated=1

[Mr. Morden]

Christie is boning up on foreign policy, presumably as a precursor to a presidential bid:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/us/politics/chris-christies-trip-to-mexico-doubles-as-a-foreign-policy-test.html

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[Vega]

It seems like alot of Republicans are "campaigning for Scott Brown" nowadays.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Malley claims to donors he'll run with or without Hillary.

[Maxwell]

O'Malley claims to donors he'll run with or without Hillary.

Excellent. I'd love to see him smashed.

[IceSpear]

O'Malley claims to donors he'll run with or without Hillary.

Running for VP I assume? I doubt he'll get it, but it's probably his only chance considering he'd be old news by 2020 or later.

[Blue3]

Glenn Beck is guaranteeing that Hillary will WIN it all in 2016:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/02/politics/glenn-beck-hillary-clinton/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/politics/chelsea-clinton-to-leave-nbc-news.html?_r=0

Don't know if it's a Hillary clue, but Chelsea Cinton is leaving NBC News.

She's about to go into labor, dude... (the human childbirth kind, not the union kind)

[IceSpear]

Glenn Beck is guaranteeing that Hillary will WIN it all in 2016:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/02/politics/glenn-beck-hillary-clinton/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/politics/chelsea-clinton-to-leave-nbc-news.html?_r=0

Don't know if it's a Hillary clue, but Chelsea Cinton is leaving NBC News.

She's about to go into labor, dude... (the human childbirth kind, not the union kind)

You know things are bad when even Glenn Beck sees the writing on the wall.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Glenn Beck is guaranteeing that Hillary will WIN it all in 2016:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/02/politics/glenn-beck-hillary-clinton/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/politics/chelsea-clinton-to-leave-nbc-news.html?_r=0

Don't know if it's a Hillary clue, but Chelsea Cinton is leaving NBC News.

She's about to go into labor, dude... (the human childbirth kind, not the union kind)

You know things are bad when even Glenn Beck sees the writing on the wall.

Except that isn't what is going on.  Fox News, Limbaugh, Beck, etc get more viewers/listeners when rank-and-file Republicans are simultaneously extremely angry (especially if the anger is generally directed toward a specific individual or issue) and feel like they no longer have a say in the direction of the country anymore.  You can be sure that Limbaugh, Ailes, Beck, O'Reilly, etc were overjoyed when Obama was re-electing and are desperately hoping Hillary Clinton wins in 2016.  It'd be the best outcome for them, especially if the campaign is exceptionally divisive. 

[RogueBeaver]

Jeb's aides are telling donors to hold off until he makes a decision, and the host committee for his Senate event would be a hypothetical finance committee's backbone.

Long Haberman report on Hillary would-be staffing, headlined by Podesta as a potential campaign chair. Mook or Cecil would be the likeliest managers, as has been reported before.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Portman will be dead on arrival in a GOP primary for the simple reason that he supports gay marriage. The Republican base might be prepared to accept a nominee who supports gay marriage in 2020, but not in 2016.

Add to that, the reason that Portman came around to supporting marriage equality was that his son is gay. Most of the Republican base still views having a gay child as a a source of deep shame at best and a character flaw at worst. I do think they'll come around eventually, but not in the next 2 years.

[nolesfan2011]

Huntsman rules out 2016 bid http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/jon-huntsman-2016-president_n_5767896.html

[retromike22]

Huntsman rules out 2016 bid http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/jon-huntsman-2016-president_n_5767896.html

Oh darn